Bochy the player magnet

It seems that Bruce Bochy is already paying dividends for the Giants. Four of the free agents that the team is pursuing -- Rich Aurilia, Dave Roberts, Mark Loretta and David Weathers -- have specifically said that one of the reasons they want to play for the Giants is to be with Bochy. Weathers hasn't even played for him before. From the Chron:

"His whole career he's wanted to play for Bochy," Horwits said. "Dave has known a lot of guys who have played for him, and he has a lot of respect for him.

Obviously these aren't the marque free agents available, but with so many spots open the Giants need all the help they can get. If Bochy can bring in roster fillers and late relievers, more power to him. I wonder if this was something Sabean was anticipating when they hired him?

Sickels Prospect Ratings

I'm probably the last person on Earth to link to this, but what the Hell. John Sickels has released his preliminary Top 20 Prospects for the Giants.

Time Lincecum was No. 1, followed by Jonathan Sanchez and Marcus Sanders. Sickels was also high on Billy Sadler.

His sum for the organization was this:

The Giants have some interesting relief arms after Lincecum and Sanchez, but have shown little ability to develop hitters with plate discipline or plus offensive potential.

Yep, that sounds like the Giants. Someday there will be a homegrown third baseman (hopefully Durham and Schmidt can help that along). Until that day we can brag about our young pitchers and stare with longing at the Diamondback's dugout.

Can it be done?

Monday marks the start of the winter meetings. Many top free agents, such as Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito, remain unsigned and a Manny Ramirez trade seems looming on the horizon (even more than usual).

There's plenty of Hot Stove left, but even if the Giants went after and added a big name, would it even matter, or is it too late for Bran Sabean to pull a winner out of his trash?

The whining on Sabean’s lack of action this off-season has reached a pitch only dogs, dolphins and Mariah Carrey can hear. Everyone just wants him to sign someone, anyone, who hit at least 20 home runs last year and apparently Rich Aurilia doesn’t count.

I considered myself above the fray until yesterday, when I saw the Yankess had won the posting for Japanese pitcher Kei Igawa, with the Giants not even bidding. I had been excited to hear the Giants were interested in him, as it seemed to show they were looking anywhere they could for talent. With Sabean targeting a very specific demographic for years now (insert AARP joke), it seemed refreshing to hear he would put up $10 million just to talk to someone under 30.

Even after I saw the $26 million bid price, I was a little disappointed they didn’t try. Not as disappointed as I would have been if they had won, but still a tiny twinge of defeat. For the first time I realized what it must have felt like for all those other fans when Alfonso Soriano signed with the Cubs.

But with the insane money going to players like Soriano, Carlos Lee, Juan Pierre -- Hell, everyone who has signed a contract this year – the most intelligent moves have been to stay put and wait for a deal that won’t destroy a club in two years.

Still, even though none of those players would have instantly made the Giants competitive, they wouldn’t have hurt for next year. And with the talent pool thinning every day, do the Giants still have a chance to field a competitive team in 2007?

Assuming Bonds resigns and the rumored deals go through, that would leave the Giants with a lineup of Bonds, Dave Roberts and Randy Winn in the outfield, Aurilia, Kevin Frandsen, Mark Loretta and Omar Vizquel in the infield, with Eliezer Alfonzo behind the plate.

But that’s if the Giants do nothing between now and spring training after signing Bonds. Right now it looks as if the Padres or Dodgers might be the front runners for Ramirez, and J.D. Drew is going to the Red Sox. With Lee and Soriano gone the remaining power hitters might be limited to Aubrey Huff – who will probably be overpaid –, Craig Wilson and possibly Morgan Ensberg through trade.

Even with one of those options, the lineup is definitely not scary. Bonds, Vizquel and Roberts were the only players linked to the Giants to have an OBP higher than .350, and those last two were 15 points above their career averages. At 32, Winn is the youngest player outside of Alfonzo and Frandsen, so one can’t expect improvement from many of them.

Will it be worth it to overpay someone like Huff or drop young talent for Ensberg? Only if the Giants pitching can prevent enough runs that four runs a game can keep the Giants in the NL West race. The strength of the Giants should be pitching in the next few years, with Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Tim Lincecum being prepped.

For 2007 though, the Giants are looking at a rotation of Cain, Noah Lowry, Matt Morris and possibly Brad Hennessey or Kevin Correia filling the other spots. The most exciting pitcher linked to the Giants has been Ted Lilly, who has said he wants to come back to the Bay Area. He has the potential to pitch better than Morris, with a 106 ERA+ over the last three years as compared to Morris’ 94. Still, not that exciting. But a slightly above-average pitcher is better than nothing.

The Giants can hope for improvements from young starters Lowry and Cain, though. Both have room to grow after 2006. Especially Lowry, who had the worst season of his career, which was still only slightly below average with a 95 ERA+. Cain was ninth in rookie VORP in a very deep year, finishing behind names such as Liriano, Verlander, Papelbon and Zumaya.

That still leaves the bullpen anchored by Armando Benitez, with Vinny Chulk and whoever doesn’t make the rotation behind him. David Weathers has also been brought up recently as a candidate for the set up role. While his 136 ERA+ and 1.29 WHIP would be appreciated, it would take big improvements from guys like Brian Wilson to make the bullpen a strength.

Could the Giants compete without adding another hitter and staying pat with a rotation of Morris, Can, Lowry, Lilly and Hennessey? In most divisions no, but the NL West has been such a den of mediocrity it’s hard to say, especially if the Giants get Bonds back and he hits more like he did in September (.299/.405/.657) than May (.239/.432/.423) and some of the young pitchers improve. And as the 83-win Cardinals showed, all you have to do is get into the playoffs and hope things happen.

This off-season I have gone back and forth between wanting to see the Giants make another run and wanting them to blow the team up as quickly as possible to start rebuilding. But they might be able to do both by reaping draft picks by offering Jason Schmidt and Ray Durham arbitration, playing .500 ball and then waiting for breaks.

Just Manny Being Barry

Manny Ramirez to the Giants rumors. Oh, I love the Hot Stove.
The Chron article mentions the Red Sox need for a shortstop, though it said that Omar Vizquel is untouchable. The other options would be prospects.

Any deal that happens would mean that Ramirez replaces Barry Bonds. Ignoring the fact that getting Ramirez would mean comparing him to the combined production lost by whoever we trade to get him and Bonds, straight up who will be better over the next few seasons, Bonds or Ramirez?

Fielding
Let's start here, as the low point for each player. Ramirez has been knocked for years for shoddy defense and would have nowhere to hide in the National League. Bonds is a once-great fielder who has been hobbled by injuries to his knees.

Last year is the only real comparable year, as it was the first where Bonds played consistently (for him) on the bionic knees. In 130 games apiece, Ramirez recorded 2.1 fielding win shares to Bonds 2.3. According to David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range, Ramirez was the worst Left fielder in baseball, while Bonds was merely average.

While I haven't seen Ramirez play a lot, what I have seen is horrendous. Bonds on the other hand is a good fielder in an old man's body. Last year he looked terrible in the field but often got to spots one wouldn't expect. He still has great instincts and make good reads, allowing him to get to balls someone in his condition shouldn't be able to.

Hitting
Now this is why both of these men get paid tens of millions of dollars every year. A few years ago it would be silly to even imagine any player who could eclipse Bonds, but after the last two seasons not only is it feasible but necessary considering his age and health.

Bonds didn't have a Bonds-like season in 2006, but he was still the best hitter on the Giants. He led the league with a .454 OBP and still slugged .545. But compared to the .812 SLG of 2004, his last healthy season, Bonds is obviously not the player he was. That was evidenced by his .270 batting average, his lowest since 1999.

But we're not comparing Bonds to himself, but Manny. Last year he hit .321/.439/.619, better than Barry in every category except OBP. That gave him 2.2 more batting win shares than Bonds.

But looking ahead, the two players seem headed in opposite path is power. Bonds seems like he will always hold an edge in OBP, though it remains to be seen if he can keep up his absolutely disgusting walk rates once pitchers and managers stop giving him free passes all the time. Which should happen soon, right?

But Bonds' ISO has been declining steadily since 2004. From 2002-2004 he averaged a .429 ISO, with a high of .450 in 2004. Last year it .275. Ramirez has averaged .301 since 2004, with a variation of .007 between the high and the low.

Overall
While it is inevitable that Ramirez will decline eventually, he seems to be holding steady for the time being a a level Bonds has recently dropped below or equaled to. Remember, Ramirez is still nearly eight years younger than Bonds. Depending what the deal is I wouldn't be upset to exchange Bonds for Manny. If the Giants can trade Vizquel and some minor prospects I would jump at it. Both come with issues and will produce, though I see Ramirez as giving Sabean a little extra to rebuild around over the next three years, assuming Bonds doesn't find a way to improve on 2006.

Flexibility

It seems that the return of Rich Aurilia is near and as well as the entry of Dave Roberts. The two are the Gary Matthews/Juan Pierre consolation prices. The contracts are supposed to add up to around $36 mil/6, with Aurilia getting $3 mil/3 and Roberts $6 mil/3.

Mark Loretta is also getting closer according to the Chron article above. It said those moves would likely spell an end to Ray Durham and the great Pedro Feliz experiment.

None of the three is what he once was. Loretta has had a huge drop since being injured a few years ago, Roberts' game is based on speed which is deteriorating with age and Giants fans are familiar with the rise and fall and rise of Aurilia. The three are also a combined 104 years old.

The trio isn't going to be mistaken for Soriano or the recently signed Carlos Lee. Aurilia and Loretta have shown some pop in the past but never at those levels and they aren't prime candidates to even continue their current levels. But with so many slots open this off season, no single player was going to keep the 2007 Giants from escaping the Fiasco that is surely coming. This has been in the works for far too long for one $180 mil contract to change it.

Sabean -- if he gets these deals done -- will have accomplished something unique in this year's free agents market. He will have filled three position slots with no more than three-year contracts and less than $10 mil a year per player.

That gives the Giants financial freedom to take on contracts through trade if Sabean goes that route with someone like Pat Burrell. What is often forgotten in the opening "Why wont Sabean Buy Anything?" articles is that all those same writers have a "There's No Flexibility for Mid-season Deals!" template stashed away for February.

But these particular deals give the Giants lineup flexibility as well. Both Loretta and Aurilia can play three infield positions with shortstop already in the capable and dreamy hands of Omar Vizquel. That flexibility gives the Giants the chance to target both corner infield spots in trade.

With the main free agent pieces gone, trades are going to be the Giants best bet. And as contract negotiations break down, injuries occur and other unforeseeables become foreseen, Sabean needs to be able and jump in before the Yankees and Red Sox can figure out how to free up another $23 million for an extension.

This is definitely a lineup influx and open to taking advantage of the markets as they change. What some fans are missing is that the Giants aren't tied down and committed to any one path yet. And while it's exciting to get a Soriano or Lee, the reality is that the Giants are indeed inching closer and closer to the dreaded "R" word. And while no one likes to lose, I'd rather see 60-win season and two 90-win seasons than three 75-win seasons.

Stolen info

Not much going as I'm prepping to drive down to the Bay Area tomorrow morning and still have some stuff to finish at, but I wanted to pass along this notebook in the CCT and the Merc. The high points:

• The Giants are interested in Mark Loretta, as Bruce Bochy made a personal call to the second baseman recently. The article also suggests him as a possible fill at first and third as well.
• As has been mentioned elsewhere, the Angels will probably get Gary Matthews Jr. for around 5/$50 mil, leaving the Giants Dave Roberts if the still want a "true" center fielder.
• The Giants will indeed be bidding for Kei Igawa of the Hanshin Tigers. There are a lot of clubs interested and it is expected to take at least $10 mil to snag his rights. Last year he went 14-9 with a 2.97 ERA in 209 IP.

I started to translate Igawa's stats the the majors using Jim Albright's formula and more or less remembered why I hated math in college. Luckily, I found someone more familiar with regression analysis, the Sturgeon General.

Really, hat tip to the Sturgeon. Go read their post, as it sums up a number of other Japanese pitchers on the market as well. I'm so glad there are people smarter than me out there. It is one of my goals to figure out how to do this the future, as I hope the Giants continue to at least show interest in Japanese players.

The projection gives Igawa a 1.33 WHiP and 4.15 ERA next year in 187.7 IP, not bad but not great. Still, its better than the team's 1.40 WHiP last year. I guess in a year with such a thin crop of free agent pitchers, getting a league average started isn't that bad.

If you're not into the fancy numbers, there is a scout's point of view over at The Prospect Insider. The scout compares Igawa to Jarod Washburn. Ick. I guess what can you expect for only $10 mil?

My Friend Ned

When the Juan Pierre to the Giants rumors started, for me it wasn't the player but the cash involved that scared me. Yes, Pierre is a no-throw, no-walk player who is a black hole at the top of the lineup whose sole value is that during the World Series against the Yankees, Fox watched him throw balls down the third base line to see which way his bunts would break. He was part of a special team and he stole lots of bases. He was a perenial member of the How to Play the Game the Right Way With Small Ball Team.

For the Giants he would basically guard Triples Alley, bat a horrible leadoff and that would be that. We did also employ one Kenny Lofton.

But the rumors had him making nearly $10 a year. That was more than Frank Thomas got from the Blue Jays and Durham was demanding.

But a friend we've been watching from afar came and saved us, taking that last bottle of scotch out of our hands and downing the hole thing himself, to the tune of four years and $44 million.

Thanks Ned.

The Dodgers are set to sign Pierre to the deal and set him loose in center and the leadoff spot. And all I can say is thank you, Mr. Colletti. You saw our weakness and you stepped in and did what any friend would do. This is the free agency equivalent of "Friends Don't Let Friends Drive Drunk," if your friend stopped you by going on a bender, stealing your car and crashing it into a police station.

This comment from the Baseball Analysts kind of summed it up:

Ned is a freaking Giant. A plant. A shill. A triple agent.... I'm baffled.

The Dodgers may still win more games than the Giants next year, but it wont be because of this.

Hot Stove, Cold Apartment

A few random things as I consider the cost/benefit of higher heating bills vs. medical costs of removing frozen appendages...

• Billy Mueller's First Job: This was sort of sickening. Bill Mueller has retired and is now working for the Dodgers front office. I know they paid him recently and Collettii and Mueller have an old Giants tie, but it still hurts Billy. I can't wish him ill, so all I'll say is I hope he is paid well. Franchise-cripplingly well.
• The Phoenix like rise of Kevin Frandsen: First he won the Dernell Stenson award and now he has a piece in the Contra Costa Times saying the Giants are giving him another look and possibly using it as grounds to let Durham go. I'm not an AFL expert, but everyone seems duly impressed so I guess I'll follow the crowd. I was real high on him when he came up originally and I'm pulling for him, but I can't forget the .284 OBP. But a league minimum starting second baseman sounds pretty freakin sweet.
• Ray Durham Vs. Frank Thomas: The same Frandsen article states that Durham is looking for a contract "in the two-year, $18 million range." Today:

  Frank Thomas and the Toronto Blue Jays finalized an $18.12 million, two-year contract on Friday.

  At first I was taken aback (though the Thomas deal has a decent signing bonus and option year) at the similarity. But as a DH Thomas ended up with only one more win share than Durham last season. Thomas is also three years older and has 663 fewer plate appearances over the last three seasons. Of course Thomas wasn't the one who slugged 95 points above his career average last year, though.
• Way Left Coast: From the Chronicle:

  The Giants are expected to look at lower-tier starters as well as those coming from Japan. There is talk they will bid for 27-year-old left-hander Kei Igawa when the Hanshin Tigers post him next week.

  After the announcement that the team finally signed a scout for the region, this is very encouraging news. For the next few years, at least, the Giants will need to find talent anywhere they can. Even if they're looking for backups, Japan has a bargain bin, too. How do you say "Marvin Bernard" in Japanese? Oh yeah, Shinjo.

Oh Shea

The Baseball Analysts released their second All-OOPs team. I'll let them describe it:

By definition, the players who meet the above criterion are singles hitters who only walk on occasion and rarely slug home runs. In other words, batting average makes up the lion's share of their value. Put another way, the qualifying hitters have low Isolated Discipline (IsoD) and Isolated Power (IsoP). IsoD equals OBP minus AVG, and IsoP equals SLG minus AVG. These isolated stats tell you what's not a part of batting average.

Shea Hillenbrand showed up as the first baseman. Though this is mainly a fun list, it's important to look at in context of the offseason. Players like Hillenbrand, with high average and little else, normally get overpaid by general managers as well as overrated by the media.

It's an old story for many people who pay attention to baseball. Average is a very visible and easy to understand stat. Picking up a guy who hit .300 but had an OBP of .310 will almost always look better to fans than .270/.350. In a year where the Giants have a lot of PR to do as Barry possibly skips town and the players becomes younger and less known to the casual fan - of which the Bay Area holds many - will Brian Sabean go for the overrated name players just to say to fans, "Well, at least we still have Juan Pierre!"

The day is here

It's finally happened. The A's are moving to Fremont.

I wonder if they'll go all Angels on us and call themselves the Oakland A's of Fremont.

Even as a Giants fan I went to more A's games just because they were so accessible. A half-hour ride on BART from Dublin, cheaper tickets and less trend all around. It was just so easy to decide the day of you wanted to go to a game and not have to fight to make it happen.

Now we'll have to transfer trains and a new stadium might make it Pac Bell all over again. There wont be a happily forgotten team in the Bay Area. Or maybe the market wont be able to handle to trendy teams at once, and the post-Barry Giants will become the A's of the late '90s. I can only hope they bring back dollar Wednesdays.

Only 300 years too late

The Giants have hired a scout for the Pacific Rim.

It's always amazed me that a team in San Francisco can do such a poor job of attracting international talent. And at this point, the team needs young players from whatever city, town, state, country or planet it can find it.

As any article that mentions Japanese baseball is required to do this offseason, this one mentions Daisuke Matsuzaka, if only to rule out the Giants entering the fray. There's a good piece up at the Hardball Times on the subject of The Coveted One's soon-to-be-paycheck. One thing I found interesting in was that the author suggested Matsuzaka might stay in Japan until he can become a free agent next season. Now teams will have to pay an exorbitant fee just to negotiate with him, so the theory is next year teams will be able to spend that money on him and not send part to the Seibu Lions.

I'm not a business man, but in a profession like baseball where a player only has so many peak seasons, why waste one in a lesser league for an extra $4 million a year on top of what will already be a disgusting contract? And as pointed out in the article, he isn't going to get a five year deal at ace money before ever throwing a major league inning, so why not get one of those proving years out of the way?

Maybe I'll ask Scott Boras...