Oh I wish I wish I hadn't squished that fish...

The title doesn't have anything specific to do with the Giants signing Barry Zito, but the general feeling of regret still remains.

There are plenty of places to read why signing a pitcher to a long-term deal is disastrous, why Zito isn't an elite pitcher and why this will blow up in the Giants collective face. I will not endorse any of these thoughts, though I recognize he is King Mediocre and the title alone is worth $10 million a year in royalty fees.

I just wanted to let everyone know that Bary Zito is actually Shawn Estes. It's true. Young hot pitchers reliant on devastating curve balls who saw that curve ball become less than stellar and never returned to the former glory.

For Estes that meant he became a fifth starter/never-heard-from-again. But Zito was always a a better pitcher, so when he lost his curve ball (oh, I don't know, around here) it didn't hurt him as much as Estes. Zito has gotten some of the snap back since 2004, but I've never seen it like it was. Still, that Estes-Zito connection was made in my head and it will never go away.

So congratulations Peter Magowan. You just paid $126 million dollars for Shawn Estes+. Have fun with that.

Someday we'll all look back on this and laugh, part X XVII

The Giants have officially signed Ryan Klesko.

I am not horrified by this. The $1.75 base ssems a little high to me for a guy who is 35 and missed almost all of last season. But really, who else on the Giants is a better first baseman? Rich Aurilia? Mike Sweeney? Pedro Feliz?

In his last full season he put up a .248/.358/.418, good for 6 RC/G. Last year Feliz had 4.1. Klesko could have slugged around .330 and still been more productive than Feliz. Plus, he would have had a slugging percentage lower than his OBP, which is pretty freaking cool in a shattering the space/time continuum sort of way.

Not that Klesko will be replacing Feliz, but it's the sort of benchmark the Giants have on the corner infield. So even if Klesko has almost zero power (or exactly zero power, as I've already proved conclusively with science. Yea, science), as long as he can keep his OBP up he can be better than what we have, which is really the whole point of getting new players anyway.

Add some time spelling Bonds in left and hopefully platooning him, those positives could rise and we could have a better-than-Niekro on our hands. And if he actually can hit, he becomes a Proven Winner at the Deadline, which could net the Giants ... something other than Ryan Klesko. But really, what do they have to lose?

We sit and tremble in anticipation.

A Brief Yet Triumphant Post

Just a short post today, as this is my last day of work before Christmas and I have to finish a week's worth of work.

Apparently the Armando Benitez to Florida trade talks are breaking down. Oh well, it was a beautiful dream while it lasted.

At this point I don't know if Benitez's value can get any lower without him being declared legally dead. There is most likely no way the Giants can get anything of value without paying almost his entire salary.

The best option may just be to wait it out and hope he does well in the first few months of the season and dump him the minute anyone offers a semi-decent warm body, preferably younger than 25.

It's risky as there is no assurance he'll make it to spring training let alone a few months into the season. But if he does make it, the market will be so much better the Giants may actually get something of value rather than a straight dump. And if they're going to be paying him either way, they might as well get something for their money.

Young players can be exchanged for goods and services

Homer: Aw, twenty dollars! I wanted a peanut!
Homer's Brain: Twenty dollars can buy many peanuts!
Homer: Explain how.
Homer's Brain: Money can be exchanged for goods and services!
Homer: Woo-hoo!

For quite a while now, Brian Sabean has been looking for peanuts.

With the Giants myopic management style, the team has been without young talent to use in trades or god forbid, develop and put out onto the field, for the better part of this century.

Last year the Giants used 44 players, 18 of which the team originally drafted. That means 3/5 of all the players the Giants used were picked in some other way, be it trades, free agency or waivers.

Looking closer, the situation was even worse. Many of those players (The Justin Knoedlers and Travis Ishikawas of the world) were up for only a short time or didn’t produce much when actually given a shot. Using win shares and runs created, we can get a rough (very rough) idea of how important those 18 players were to the team.

In 2006, the Giants drafted accounted for only 23 percent of the runs created (RC and PRC) and 16% of the Giants win shares. That was actually down from 23 percent of win shares last season. The big contributors were Matt Cain (12 WS, 86 PRC), Noah Lowry (7 WS, 55 PRC), Kevin Correia (6 WS, 37 PRC), and Brad Hennessey (6 WS, 34 PRC).

Looking at where the production came from for the Giants in 2006, it becomes painfully clear how not being able to develop and play or trade young talent has affected the make up of team.

Type	WS	WS %	RC	RC%
Draft	37	16%	285	23%
FA	137	61%	691	55%
Trade	52	23%	290	23%

The vast majority of the worth for the Giants came from one source, free agent pickups. Now, as he always doess, Barry Bonds has a huge affect on this type of analysis. He’s counted as a free agent pickup and was the most productive member of the team in 2006.

In 2005 he accounted for only 2 win shares. But that didn’t change the chart much.

Type	WS	WS %
Draft	52	23%
FA	129	57%
Trade	37	16%
WA	9	4%

Now lets look at the Giants closest rival and probably the antithesis of Sabean’s management style, the Oakland A’s.

In 2006 the A’s used 40 players, with 12 being drafted by the team, Once again, this number makes much more sense in context. Here’s the A’s production chart for 2006:

Type	WS	WS %	RC	RC%
Draft	99	35%	489	35%
FA	45	16%	168	12%
Trade	124	44%	680	49%
Purchased	0	0%	3	0%
Waivers	11	4%	45	3%

Billy Beane needed only 45 win shares from free agents to get the A’s to the ALCS, and that’s counting the 22 from Frank Thomas. Nick Swisher and Barry Zito were the most valuable draftees and Danny Haren and Jason Kendall the most valuable tradees (a word Blogger is telling me doesn’t exist – until now). Even Haren and Kendall were acquired for player the A’s originally drafted (Mark Mulder) or traded for (Mark Redman).

I think the important thing for me in looking at the A’s is how much they relied on trades to build the team. It is directly connected to developing young players, as the Haren trade shows. They were able to get everything they could out of Mulder of minimal cost and then get a decent replacement in trae, who they’ll be able to milk at the minimum for a while if they can’t get a long-tern deal donw.

Working with young player is always a crap shoot, as the Tim Hudson trade and names such as Ainsworth and the Ghost of J.R. Phillips prove, but is free agency any better? Edgardo Alfonzo, Armando Benitez and others show that free agency can lead to mistakes as well, and ones that can cost a team many more millions of dollars than any amateur not represented by Scott Boras.

So please Sabean, you have six draft picks in the first and sandwich round coming up. Use them well. Pay the players and be patient. I’ll wait here until the team is ready, I promise.

Those we may be seeing a lot of

Looking at the 2007 Giants bullpen at this point is like that nautical saying, I forget what it is exactly, but it has something to do with seats on a boat.

The cast of characters is mainly familiar, though some new faces could show up at any moment. Just one of them won’t be Eric Gagne.

Incumbents
Armando Benitez: Until Mando gets traded he is the closer because he led the team’s relievers last year in dollars per year. His K/9 has been steadily declining since 1999. Even in his breakout year in 2004 his rate dropped from 9.25 to 8.01. But the Big difference between his ’03, ’04 and his ’05, ’06 was the home runs. His HR/9 jumped from sub-0.80 to over 1.40.

Vinnie Chulk: The Chulk in Toronto and the Chulk in San Francisco last year were two different people. His walks per game jumped from 1.8 to 6.0 after the trade and his HR/9 dropped from 1.44 to 0.79. His major minor league numbers suggest he’s good for around 7.5 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9.

Kevin Correia: Had career bests last year in HR/9, K/9 and BB/9. He made four appearances of at least three innings and 8 of at least two. I’m not confident he can repeat 2006, but he has value as a long relief guy.

Brian Wilson: Had a BABIP of .335 last year. While not outrageous one can probably expect him to give up fewer hit next year, though that won’t help his six walks a game for the Giants last year. But his ability to prevent home runs carried over to the majors so if he can add a little control could definitely be an asset in 2007.

Steve Kline: As a LOOGY Kline has decent splits, not allowing a home run to a lefty last year. Still, he’s 34 and not likely to get any better.

Also on the 40-man: Jack Taschner, Billy Sadler, Scott Munter, Tim Worrell (likely done) and starters Brad Hennessey and Jonathan Sanchez (see this post).

Outsourcing
David Riske: Spent last year with both color Sox and 2005 with Indians. He’s put up an ERA+ above 120 every year since 2002. From’02-04 he was striking out a batter an inning, but now that’s down to 5.73/9 last year. I think his ERAs the last few years are a little lower than they should be and I don’t expect him to be great if the Giants pick him up, but he should be better than the internal options.

Doug Brocail: A groundball pitcher excellent at preventing home runs and his FIP numbers have always been lower than his ERA. Underwent two angioplasties last year and didn’t make an appearance until June. I think he could be a good pickup even if he would be another Padre el Norte.

Prognosis
If things stand as they are, Benitez, Kline, Chulk and Correia are already in. That leaves two or three spots, most likely one free agent and a choice between whoever does well in spring training. I see the Giants signing Riske and then filling out the roster with Wilson and whoever doesn't make it between Hennessey and Sanchez.

Now that I’ve said that it’s almost a certainty it won’t happen. But what they hell, it’s worth a shot. And if I’m right I’ll just edit out this part out.

Rotational Analysis

With the signing of Barry Bonds the Giants have what seems to be a pretty finalized lineup, as terrifying as that may be. Rich Aurilia is a great guy, but that wont help him improve on last year’s .257/.307/.410 line from first basemen.

As Sabean deflects attacks over the signing, he must know move and finalize a pitching staff that has already lost its most productive reliever (Mike Stanton) and starter (Jason Schmidt).

Right now the Giants have three starters penciled in; Matt Morris, Matt Cain and Noah Lowry. Those three threw 557.7 of the Giants 982.2 starters-innings last year.

That still leaves 424 innings unaccounted for with only two spots open to take them up. So it seems that unless the Giants can get two pitchers they are sure will eat up over 200 innings apiece, the Giants bullpen will be coming in earlier and more often to clean up a staff missing it’s best pitcher.

But with Cain throwing 188 IP and Lowry at only 159.1 IP, there may be hope that these two may eat up some more on their own. Lowry pitched 204 innings in 2005, so it might be reasonable to expect at least another 20 IP. Still, it will be tough to replace Schmidt’s 213.3.

Options
The in-house replacements seem to be Brad Hennessey and Jonathan Sanchez as Bochy has said he prefers to keep Kevin Correia in the bullpen. Both Hennessey and Sanchez could be moved to the bullpen themselves if the Giants fill one or both the rotation spots with trades or free agents.

Hennessey is below-average in both K/9 and BB/9, with his strikeouts dropping from 4.87 to 3.81 last year. His WHiP was much lower in 2006, but so was his BABIP, so I’m not convinced that was anything more than luck in a small sample size. He isn’t really anything more than a fifth started who might be able to eat some innings at league average in a best-case scenario.

Sanchez on the other hand has the potential to turn into something decent. He doesn’t give up a lot of homeruns and has the potential to put up decent strikeout numbers, averaging 11.83 per nine in the minors.

Outsourcing
The out-of-town options the Giants have been linked to aren’t special. Jeff Suppan, Bruce Chen and Russ Ortiz aren’t going to inspire fear in anyone except the team they are under contract to.

Suppan is obviously the best in the bunch, with ERA+ of 108, 119 and 103 the last three seasons, though his K/BB was below the league average each of those. He survives with good control and few strikeouts and is your basic league-average innings-eater.

But the part that will make whatever team he signs with scream is that piece of paper he’ll be signing. Getting Suppan -- in theory – is not a bad idea. He does have value and over the course of 30 starts can help a team to a few wins. But there are better options than what will be around $10 million per year for four years.

Chen and Ortiz are both castoffs who will come cheaper but will be a much higher risk to flame out completely than Suppan. Chen gives up a lot of home runs but keeps everything else pretty much in check. The Giants best hope from him would be a repeat of his 2005, when he went 13-10 with a 3.83 ERA for the Orioles in 32 starts.

Ortiz’s agent has said nothing is wrong with his client, though the numbers would beg to differ. Since 2004 he’s thrown almost one walk per strikeout, with a K/BB at 1.07. And it seems he wants a guaranteed major league contract, not just a spring training invite. This seems like too much, even for Sabean. Anything more than a minor league contract for him is completely unnecessary. Even if three other teams are asking for him, there is no reason to ever raise an offer to someone like Ortiz, at least until our war with the robots thins out the available pool of starters.

But of course if these don’t pan out there is always David Wells. The pitcher has expressed interest in the Giants and the team may be just desperate enough to try it, even though Wells almost challenged Bonds to a fight over that whole steroids thing (so glad that blew over…). Boomer has great walk numbers and keeps the ball on the ground, but with his age and lack of Ks he, so like many of the other options, is a great chance to get more average rather than better.

Prognosis
With the front three set up, the Giants are set to dumpster-dive for two more starters or allow either Hennessey or Sanchez to fill a rotation spot.

I think Sanchez should start in the pen and move into a starter’s role later in the season. He’s never thrown more than 125 innings in a season and it would give him more time to get used to the major league game. His BB/9 numbers were pretty bad in Fresno (4.94) and with the Giants (5.18), so I’m hoping that’s something that can be worked out with more time. Both of those stints were for less than 40 IP, so I'm not too worried. Yet.

Hennessey isn’t a great option, having almost no upside, but he can hold down a spot until Sanchez is ready.

Other than that I’m all for taking a flyer on Chen and hoping for the best from the other three. If I thought this team had a shot I would say go after someone like Suppan to get the extra couple of wins, but at this point it’s not worth the contract. In 2005 Suppan had fewer win shares than Chen, so it's possible he may actually be close to Suppan next season. I'm not really expecting it, but at millions less for a short-term deal it might be worth a shot.

The elephant in the room is Barry Zito. The Giants have almost no shot at him, but everyone has been saying all the right things for a while now. If he ends up in San Francisco I suspect Hennessey goes to the rotation, Sanchez the bullpen and then someone like Jack Taschner fills the extra spot.

I’ll be taking a look at the bullpen in the next few days.

OOO Rebay!

Jose Uribe has died.

If you take a look at the banner for this blog, you’ll notice four baseball cards in the lower right corner. That first one is of Jose Uribe.

I was six years old the last year he started for the Giants, but I can still remember going to games and chanting OOO Rebay!!! as loud as I could. Hearing it announced over the PA when he came to bat was always special. The inflection and enthusiasm in that call made every plate appearance an event to an impressionable five-year-old the year they went to the World Series.

Uribe to Thompson to Clark is my Tinkers to Evers to Chance. His name is a checkpoint in my mental map of baseball history.

I may have more of a baseball connection to Robby Thompson and Will Clark because they stuck around a little while longer and I have more concrete memories of them playing. But Uribe has always been My Giant. He was the first player that I as a fan took ownership of. I recognized something that I liked about the team and the game and decided to hold on to it.

And I still do now.

Even as I got older and he left the team, I still remembered what he gave to me as a fan. Uribe will always be one of my favorite Giants and one of my best baseball memories.

I’m sorry to see him go.

EORT

I’d like to introduce a new stat, one I’ve created recently. Today even.

It’s called EORT (Evil Over Replacement Team). Unlike many metrics it’s a team stat, zero is the best possible score and it’s not meant to be used by observers but by players, specifically free agents attempting to pick a new team.

EORT is an incredibly useful stat. Like VORP, it is dependent on a player’s situation, such as hometown proximity and team payroll. The higher a team’s EORT, the more a player signing there will distress the original team’s fan base.

Some players have inherently more EORT value surrounding them than other players, often correlated to career win shares or years with one team. Johnny Damon was an example of a player with a lot of potential suitors with high EORT value. He ended up choosing the New York Yankees, with a season high 59.7 EORT value, one of the highest EORT signing in decades.

Wednesday was the highest EORT signing of this off-season, as Jason Schmidt of the San Francisco Giants signed a 3 year, $37 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Dodgers/Schmidt EORT wasn’t as high as Yankees/Damon, but at 39.3 far surpassed the other deals already struck this off-season.

The main factors were Schmidt’s high win shares with the Giants, the fact that Dodgers GM Ned Colletti recently worked for the Giants and the Rivalry Quotient (RQ) between the two teams. Dodgers executives are also known to disembowl puppies in front of small children and base their inner-city scholarship program on a fight-to-the-death rather than academic achievment.

One has to imagine Schmidt was aware of the Dodgers EORT, especially with the Mariners low 1.2 EORT as the next best offer. But as is often the case, Schmidt seems to have taken the highest offer over the best EORT, just as Alfonso Soriano signed the best deal with the Cubs even though they are stuck in a never-ending cycle of despair.

Morning Hits

A few things gleaned from the reason I'll be late to work...

• The Florida Marlins may be interested in Armando Benitez. Fantastic. The more the merrier. I don’t think the Giants will end up with Mike Jacobs out of it, but getting young talent for Benitez may be worth $5 million of Mando’s contract at this point.
  

• From Andrew Baggarly, on the consequences of signing Ted Lilly or Jeff Suppan.:
  
  

  Even if they are able to back-load a deal, any of those upper-level starters would exhaust at least half of the $20 million or so the Giants have left to spend under their anticipated $85 million payroll.
  
  And if the Giants give in to Bonds' demands to be paid a figure similar to the $18 million he made last season, they would already be over budget with other needs to fill.

  
  This seems to make a trade more likely, though where it’s going to come from at this point is anyone’s guess.

• Busting out the Baggarly, two-times quick:
  
  

  The Giants are expected to sign Ryan Klesko as a left-handed bench player and part-time outfielder, a source said. Klesko also was talking with Orioles officials, but those discussions have cooled.

  
  I’m starting to warm to the idea of Klesko as a platoon player. Last year’s injury scares me, but in 2005 he put up a .262/.373/.464 against right-handers. Last year Giants first-baseman put up a total-line of .257/.307/.410, so any help would be appreciated. Last year’s shoulder surgery is still a concern, but if it lowers the price enough he could be better than what we have and a steal for this offseason.
  
  

Zito and Schmidt

I really never thought I would even have to consider writing this post. But there it is, in dead black pixels, staring at me from my computer screen. The Giants are pursueing Barry Zito.

It is far too early to start picturing Zito at Mays Field, no matter who the Giants end up adding to the rotation (and they will add at least one new face), he will be compared to Jason Schmidt. And really, we have to have outrage prepared and well researched by the time any deal is announced.

First stop, stats courtesy of the invaluable Harball Times:

Jason Schmidt

Year	Tm	Lg	PRC	RA	FIP	ERA+				LD%	GB%	IF/F	K/G	BB/G
2004	SF	NL	125	3.36	2.78	135				16.5%	44.6%	14.1%	10.7	3.3
2005	SF	NL	63	4.71	3.77	95				21.3%	38.3%	19.3%	8.4	4.3
2006	SF	NL	103	3.97	3.93	127				19.3%	37.4%	9.0%	7.8	3.5

Barry Zito

Year	Tm	Lg	PRC	RA	FIP	ERA+				LD%	GB%	IF/F	K/G	BB/G
2004	OAK	AL	89	4.90	4.57	100				18.8%	37.0%	16.4%	6.9	3.4
2005	OAK	AL	99	4.18	4.37	110				20.8%	41.8%	19.3%	6.9	3.6
2006	OAK	AL	105	4.03	4.94	118				16.5%	38.2%	13.3%	6.2	4.0

The big thing to notice is the K rates. Schmidt has been in a steady decline but was still better than Zito last year. This is keeping with both players' careers. Schmidt's career averge is about a whole strikeout better than Zito.

Zito has been staying pretty steady over the last few years. He was over 7 K/9 his first three seasons, but hasn't got over that mark since, falling into a consistent 6.9 career average.

But what troubles me is the walk rate. Zito has done up each of the last three years, over which time his K/BB dropped from 2.01 to 1.53. And besides 2003 to 2004 it's dropped every year since 2001.

Schmidt's K/BB fell from 2003 to 2005, going from 4.52 to 1.94. He had a slight recorrection last year at 2.25, right at his career mark.

It's hard to say Zito is in a decline at 28, though the walk rates aren't encouraging. Schmidt had a great return to form last year, but at 33 he is obviously more likely to decline over the length of a four year deal than Zito is (though his deal is likely to be six years). Zito is also more consistent, mainly due to Schmidt's injury problems the last few years. If I had to pick one for the next for years without money involved it would be Zito all the way as the younger and less injury prone option.

But is above-average consistency worth $100 million over six years? Zito is not a Johan Santana, Roger Clemens type-ace. He has incredibly bad games quite often, with five games giving up at least six runs last year alone.

I see Zito more like the 115 ERA+ pitcher he's been the last two years than the 169 ERA+ pitcher he was when he when the Cy Young in 2002. And though his curveball is one of the best in baseball, he doesn't always seem to know how to use it. Sometimes it reminds me of Shawn Estes in his decline, though Estes at his best was barely what Zito is now. Still, the 'Why isn't it working?' face is the same. I see him more as a reliable No. 2.

I really don't know if I would feel comfortable with the Giants investing so much in someone like Zito, especially since it will mean the end of Barry Bonds. As much as I hate it, he is the best hitter still on the market and if the Giants can sign him to a one year deal has the possibility of being a decent value.

If a Lowry signing means Noah Lowry is gone to Seattle or Boston in a deal for a power hitter the water becomes murkier. Here's thw two scenarios, deal amounts and lengths and estimated performance.

Secenario 1: Lowry, $14/4 (105 ERA+) and Bonds $18/1 (140 OPS+)
Secenario 2: Zito, $100/6 (117 ERA +) and Sexson, $28/2 (124 OPS+)

The Bonds estimate is if he continues to decline and Sexson is if he stays steady.

In Scenario 1 the Giants commit around $22 million a year and Scenario 2 around $31 million. Would that extra $10 million buy the Giants enough wins to stay competitive? I don't think so, but the upside seems higher if Zito can return to a semi-dominant form and the Giants find a way to replace the production lost in the drop off of Bonds to Sexson. How they do that with less money will be difficult, but may I suggest starting at third base?

And I just watched "Eraserhead," too

OK, I feel like I’m losing my mind.

Just a few days ago the Giants were set to waddle semi-harmlessly through a terrible off-season. Rich Aurilia, Dave Roberts, possibly Mark Loretta. Matched with Kevin Frandsen, Omar Vizquel and possibly Barry Bonds, it was a horrible lineup but one that would be almost completely gone in two years and allowed the Giants to maybe pick up draft picks from key departees Jason Schmidt and Ray Durham.

But no. Sabean didn’t want to leave bad enough alone. First he added Durham. Not a bad move at two years and $16 million. He wont hit like he did last year but I have no ill will for the guy and he still has the possibility of being an above-average second baseman. Even in 2005 he was top 10 in the majors for runs created by a second baseman.

Aurilia isn’t a terrible signing at two years, $8 million. He can play every infield position and though, like Durham, wont likely recreate last year, had the possibility of at least being a replacement-level third baseman, something the Giants haven’t had since David Bell. He also gave us the ability to pick up talent at any infield position without having to worry about replacing someone.

But then came the sign. Like locusts descending on town, you could tell it was only the start of something terrible, the first part of a plague of epic proportions to punish us forever for our sin of rooting for the San Francisco Giants.

Sabean decided that The Worst Third Baseman in Major League Baseball, Happy, Fleas, was to be resigned. And not just resigned. He is to get over $5 million to make my favorite baseball team -- the one I have followed since I could cognitively reason, the one I braved an earthquake during a World Series for, the one I stuck with through 1996 for, the one I cheered for Shawon Dunston and Jose Vizciano for (twice) – objectively and subjectively worse.

In 2006 he had the lowest runs created per game of any qualified third baseman in major league baseball. He also had the lowest OBP, OPS, GPA, pitches per plate appearance and fifth lowest SLG.

I am required by law to state that he did have 5 fielding win shares, leading all third baseman, and ranked third in David Pinto’s Probalistic Model of Range.

Now I’m hearing rumors that Noah Lowry is on the block in a possible trade for Richie Sexson or the signing of Ryan Klesko is imminent. And as of now Aurilia is the starting first baseman.

With the winter meetings underway, the rumors have been coming fast and furious. Already the Giants have been linked to Sexson, Klesko, Adam Dunn, Geoff Jenkins, and Pat Burrell.

The likelihood of any of those deals happening is probably almost zero. As was stated at USS Mariner, the Sexson deal would be the fallback for the Giants, Mariners and Red Sox in the Manny Ramirez deal, so no one is going to work hard on getting that done. I assume the other mentions will go the way of David Weathers.

Right now it’s all a little much for me to take in. So quickly a season that seemed to promise a few new faces and players born after Nixon turned into the same old Sabean team, full of scrappy 36-year-old role players. No Frandsen, no Todd Linden. Not that they are the answer, but they seemed like the promised shinny ball for all of us who have sat so patiently while we watched the other kids take their Mecha-Chris Youngs and play across the street. When do we get a home-grown starter?

What’s left for the Giants? Another starter wouldn’t hurt, the bullpen seems thin and obviously no one on the roster is a threat for over 30 home runs unless Bonds resigns. Sure, the Twins made it work for years, but the Giants ain’t the Twins.

I hope Sabean leaves the winter meetings with the pitching staff intact. Young pitching is always at a premium and trading Lowry for a middle-aged cleanup hitter just because the team is lacking power is absurd. I think they’re better off hanging on to Lowry until a move like that could actually make a difference and they have a better idea how the Sanchezs and Lincecums of the world will progress.

The bullpen does not need a high-priced set up man. This isn’t a team that will be trying to hold off a rally in game seven of the 2007 World Series. Taking fliers on anyone will be better in the long term (and that’s the only term we’ve got). These are all strategies that have been pounded to death in other places, but it just feels better to have typed it out myself.

And in theory I’m not against adding Sexson or Dunn. My thinking on the corners right now is ‘Are they better than Feliz? Excellent, sign them.’ Each of them is a full two runs better per game than Feliz with the bat. I could see Dunn being just as infuriating to watch and he is a black-hole defensively, but at this point anything might be better than another year of Happy.

And as much as I love sifting through the hundreds of rumors I get sent to my inbox everyday, maybe it would just be easier on me to wait this off-season out and emerge in February to check out the 40-man.

Or maybe the shock of seeing Ryan Klesko pencilied in as our starting first-baseman would be too much to take without adequate warning.

Giants have interest in Bengie

Not much time available today, so I just want to point to this Chron article. Apparently the Giants have interest in one of the Flying Molinas, specifically Bengie Molina, recently of the Blue Jays. The article doesn't mention money, but Molina did have a $7.5 mil option dropped by the Jays, so there and up would seem to be the only conclusion.

The article also mentions that the Giants wont offer Barry Bonds arbitration because if he accepts he could get over $20 mil, compared to the $14.4 mil minimum he could accept if they don't. So, is a first round pick worth nearly $6 mil? One of the many questions that will be answered around 9 p.m. tonight as the arbitration deadline passes. Wow, it's almost like waiting for Christmas morning, huh?