No more Journey psych-outs

Sometimes it's too easy to look at the result of something and forget how you got there. Like blaming that guy in your office for freaking out whenever someone mentions Steve Perry before knowing his parents tied him up in the basement and forced him to listen to journey eight hours a day. Trust me, I'll never make that mistake again.

I kept that in mind today as I read this snippet of note from a Chris Haft mailbag (I'm still holding out hope for some kind of anti-Draper).

On some extremely good teams, Feliz might indeed be a utilityman. But the power-starved Giants need the pop Feliz provides, however inconsistently. For better or worse, he averaged 21 home runs the past three seasons. Feliz's biggest problem in 2006 was insufficient rest. With Aurilia and perhaps Kevin Frandsen available to give him a break -- and with Klesko handy, as you said, to play first when Aurilia isn't there -- Feliz should remain fresh and potentially more productive this season.

OK, so maybe I don't agree that the Giants need the pop Feliz provides. Remember he was the Worst Third Baseman in the Major Leagues last season. Even 98 RBIs don't mean that much with a 3.8 RC/27.

But the idea that it was overuse that drove him to it (Steve Perry, Steeeeeve Perry) is intriguing. Feliz was never great at getting on base (04-06 line: .256/.293/.443), but if he has to play can we not try to make it better?

So I checked the Day-by-Day database to see how Feliz did as the season progressed, and by damn he did get noticebly worse as the days wore on.

April-June

BA	OBA	Slug%	OPS	SB%	AB/HR
.275	.306	.476	.782	-	26.08

July-October

BA	OBA	Slug%	OPS	SB%	AB/HR
.216	.260	.395	.655	50.00	26.91

And here's how his OBP broke down by month:

May: .336
June: .320
July: .291
August: .263
September: .223

His May was actually pretty good. He finished a .308/.336./.564 line, hitting seven home runs with 21 RBI. Small sample size and all, if he good do that all year I would have no problem with him.

The big problem was that no other month came close. After his .900 OPS in may he never got within .100 points any other month, finishing with a .504 OPS in 98 September AB.

Conclusion: Yeah, Feliz may have been worn down last year. But it just made a bad player worse. Even looking at his career-highs, a monster Feliz would be something like .280/.310./520, and that's with rounding-up all his season-highs.

Those numbers would put him somewhere between Brandon Inge and Joe Crede. Those numbers are also completely unrealistic.

What's more likely is that the new platoons give Feliz some more rest and he continues his sloptastic ways at a slightly less nausea-inducing pace. Though the platoons may not even be the reason. Bill James, CHONE, Marcel and ZiPS all project him to improve his OBP next year, so it may just be random chance.

But put me down for not-Joe Crede.

One down

The Raiders have officially ended the Aaron Brooks experiment.

With Tui nearly gone what this means is that the Raiders have only Andrew Walter to cower helplessly behind the gaping holes left by the offensive line, screaming out to the sky "God! Why have you forsaken me!" He will then be struck blind.

It also means the Raiders have two QB spots open. Do I hear the calls for a rookie and a veteran? Yes. Yes I do. But that would be the easy, conventional way to go. Al Davis is not that person.

How about signing Jeff Garcia and drafting Calvin Johnson and then Troy Smith in the third round? It would certainly solve the problem of having only one quarterback and would be very unexpected, though it wouldn't do so much about all that suck.

Maybe they'll address that next off-season.

Too much (clap clap) time on my hands...

From the SportsLogos.net:

On This Date
February 22nd

147 Years Ago... in 1860: Baseball's first ever organized game was played in San Francisco.

I had absolutely no idea.

I've spent a bunch of time running different sets of numbers through Baseball-Reference's new PI feature. I could probably sit around and do this all day if someone would pay me.

For instance, since Will Clark left a Giants first baseman has hit 15 home runs in a season exactly five times. Four we're J.T. Snow. The other? Mark Carreon.

The Giants also haven't had two pitchers 25 or younger win 10 games in a season since 1983. That was the second straight year Atlee Hammaker and Bill Laskey accomplished the feat. The team has had at least one player do it for three straight seasons, though (Cain, Lowry and our old friend Jerome Williams).

There hasn't been a pair of under-25ers each have an ERA+ of 100 since 1974 with Mike Caldwell and John D'Acquisto.

With Cain still only 22 in baseball years and Sanchez and Lincecum near the majors I'm hoping these random facts will change real quickly. No team since the 2001 Oakland A's (Seriously, do I have to put their names here?) has had three starters under 25 with ERA+'s of 100.

Of the last 10 teams to pull it off, six won their division, two finished second and only one finished lower than third. That would be the 1984 Los Angeles Dodgers (Yeah! Take that burn 22-year old enemy team!).

Otherwise I'm sitting around for the new version of OOTP to be released and the new episode of The Office to come out.

It's snowing!

Awash in the spring training fluff that is raining down upon us, I found this little snippet from a Rich Draper (shudder) article on Russ Ortiz. Ortiz says that all his problems have been linked a small change in his delivery that had gone undiagnosed for, let's look at the record here ... apparently 2005:

The nine-year veteran thanks Baltimore pitching coach Leo Mazzone with spotting that delivery error while studying videotapes last year after Ortiz was demoted to the bullpen.

Now normally I don't put a lot of stock in anything a player/manager/coach/general manager/bat boy says before the season, but anything attached to the Miracle Worker needs to at least be checked out. So thanks to David Pinto's Day by Day database, here's Bug Russ' numbers with Arizona and Baltimore in 2006:

Arizona

ERA	Win Pct.	K per 9	BB per 9	HR per 9	K/BB
7.54	.000	8.3	8.7	1.19	.95

Baltimore

ERA	Win Pct.	K per 9	BB per 9	HR per 9	K/BB
8.48	.000	5.1	4.0	3.35	1.28

Now these are only 22 and 40 IP respectively so no big conclusions can be drawn. Also park factors, a new defense and different levels of competition could also have played a factor. But while getting fewer Ks his K/BB numbers improved in Baltimore, those the home run rate is pretty bad. But Ortiz said he changed once he had been moved to the bullpen, so let's look at his numbers after his last start:

ERA	Win Pct.	K per 9	BB per 9	HR per 9	K/BB
4.71	-	7.7	3.0	2.57	2.57

Now these are much better. Once again this is in only around 2o IP, but it's something to think about, coupled with his fall performances and these pictures. If nothing else, the Giants may have a decent reliever and a possible closer if he can't start anymore. With Arizona paying most of his salary, any value squeezed from Ortiz will make the signing worth it.

Right now I think there's not enough data post-Mazzone to say whether Ortiz is likely to improve this season. But I now think it may be possible, which is better than I've been at some points since he was signed.

The Drama

Wow, it seemed the Giants are just courting controversy. First Barry Bonds is well ... Barry Bonds.

Then Barry Zito -- The Good Barry -- changes his motion. Then he doesn't, or maybe just not as much.

And now the ever present Attack of the Noah Lowrys heats up again. In December a MySpace
blog claiming to be Lowry ripped Jason Schmidt for defecting to the Dodgers. Apparently wasn't really him. I know what you're thinking, 'How could someone be able to use the internets for that?' But I guess this is possible in the age we live in. I've always said there are just too many tubes in this world.

They tore that site down but according to the Chronicle there are several new ones. Some highlights from the Pod Lowrys:

Most guys say the hate chick flicks but we all know that deep down, they love them, and I'm one of the few guys who will admit that I actaully don't mind watch a chick flick!

Who I'd like to meet:
Jill, She comes to my practices and lights up my world. She's playing hard to get. What do I need to do to impress her? Jill I gave you my number. Please call.

Tim Lincecum also has a MySpace page. His name is jusTim:

i won't bullshit anyone and i tell it how it is, I like to have a good time every now and then, but i'm focused when i need to be. I'm extremely competitive and hate losing at almost anything...oh and if you're gonna ask to be my friend on here you need to either know me or talk to me, and girls, if i ask to be your friend don't think i'm just one of "those" guys, cus i'm not...

I guess until every major league player comes out and states, one by one, that each of these pages aren't real, we're just going to have to assume that they are and take everything written as gospel. Otherwise there'd be way too much thinking going on and the Internet can't have that.

I also looked for Pedro Feliz. There's one and it's not all that entertaining, but the sad thing was that 14 other people showed up with the name. The world is most definitely not fair.

(Dawning of a) New Era

Finally, all of those counters and clocks can be retired. All of those flickering numbers, moving ever closer to the exact moment when pitchers and catchers report can stop. It's here. Baseball players can start playing baseball again.

I realize for many this is a big day, but for me I've never seen the big deal. Yes, it's another step to real baseball in April, but other than that all it means for me is a bunch of top-five questions lists (apparently there is some controversy with Barry Bonds. I was unaware) and some pictures of Armando Benitez in a different style hat.

But this is the first day towards learning who will get the fifth spot in the rotation. Will Russ Ortiz find a way to do a reasonable impersonation of a major league pitcher or will a younger option (Sanchez, Lincecum) get a chance. For now I'm in the Sanchez camp, but I'm open to persuasion. That's why they play the meaningless March games.

It's also one day closer to finding out whether Mando has anything left in his tank or if Brian Wilson can steal the closer job. If Benitez can hit at least 80 mph he'll have the job at least the first month -- veteran savvy and all that -- but you can't count out the serpent. I'd love both of them to be effective members of an improved bullpen, which could happen if Mando is healed and Wilson continues to progress in the majors.

So I guess there is some merit to all the excitement over pitchers and catchers reporting. But I'm still focused on that day about two months from now when there will be a real 25-man roster, real stats and standings and all of my current irrational hopes can be crushed over a grueling eight month period. Yea, baseball.

UPDATE: Something Lefty Malo had mentioned earlier, but Bonds is not listed on the Giants Web site 40-man roster anymore. According to Henry Schulman, apparently the Chronicle called the Giants to ask why Bonds was still on the list on the Web site and they basically said, "What, he's not on the list!" and hung up real fast. And wouldn't you know it, it's gone now.

UPDATE (Typos are fun division): Apparently the Giants have decided that after years of trying there is no way they can ever replace Will Clark and have given up on first base all together. CBS says on its Giants projected lineup that both Feliz and Aurilia will be playing third this season. We'll have to see how this strategy works out, but a bold move by Bochy.

Where the money goes

Baseball Prospectus has an article up now explaining a tweak to Marginal Payroll/Marginal Wins to take into account how those last extra millions could push a team into the playoffs. It assumes that any win between 88-98 is worth more to a team because it may move it closer to the payoff or playoff money.

I'm not enough of an economist, statistician or um ... person who knows things about numbers to be able to say whether or not this is a valid metric, though the econ classes I took in college seem to point to it at least making sense in theory.

What amazed me was just how bad the Giants are under both measures; Fifth in MP/MW and third in MP/MWW. That means all but two other teams used their money wiser than the Giants. Knowing the payroll, poor decisions and poor product on the field I knew Sabean and Co. were not very efficient with the dollars, but to see just how bad was a little disconcerting.

It's sad when you realize the only positive thoughts of your favorite team arethat they could change almost everything about they way they operate.

Oh, and Tim Lincecum, too. Though that's not so sad to think about.

The trade that wouldn't die

The last few days the rumors of the Giants shopping Armando Benitez have begun again. I haven't seen any names linked to the most recent reports as it seems all parties concerned have moved to the wait and see camp, trying to figure out if Benitez can still pitch before moving him.

I think this will help the Giants, because FSM knows his value probably can't get lower. Though I wouldn't out it past him.

Henry Schulman had a short write up on Benitez going to spring training early to meet with trainers and start throwing off a mound. Absent from the article is any quote from Benitez himself though, and Bruce Bochy is quoted as saying Mando is a little heavier than the team would like.

It's still early in the process but that last part doesn't sound good, though the appearance of committment is nice. Hopefully both the Giants and Benitez are so eager to be rid of each other both sides will work as hard as possible to get a deal done.

Yesterday I finally got my copy of Baseball America's prospect handbook. Reading Brian Wilson's entry I started to get a little more excited about the Giants closer of the future, especially this part"

Quietly intense and armed with a huge water serpent tattooed on his left arm, Wilson has the look of a closer.

I usually don't put too much stock into something like intensity or the look of a player, but a huge water serpent? Hell yeah. We need to decide on his entry music soon.

His 2006 in San Francisco wasn't anything spectacular and the book mentioned his fastball control is still a little off, but with a high 90s slider he may not be too far away. It gives me confidence that when Benitez does leave, this year or in the future, someone other than Tyler Walker can step in for the 8th and 9th inning.

Yesterday also saw Ken Rosenthal batting around locations for A-Rod once he cuts and runs from the Yankees next year. First off I find it interesting that people have already written this as almost certain fact. Never the less ...

Of the four teams he lists as Obvious Fits, the Giants make an appearance. Considering the Marlins are also included you can take that for what you will. He doesn't offer any reasons besides the franchise needs a middle of the lineup hitter once Bonds leaves and Pedro Feliz is, um ... ineffective. I personally wouldn't mind A-Rod as a Giants as long as the numbers work ($19 mil a year wouldn't be terrible but that's not happening). Though I believe the collective weight of the A-Rod is gay jokes could cause the Bay Bridge to collapse again (If only they had finished the retro-fit! Damn Cal-Trans!).

Short Raiders Note: The Raiders signed Tom Rathman as a running backs coach. Kay.

Nifty Gifties

The Lane Kiffin era has been getting off to a ... start. He's shaken up the coaching staff, losing Bilitnekoff and others, bringing in some Falcons assistants and others and hopefully removing that mothball and brimstone smell from the locker room.

Jerry McDonald also has a nice profile up on the Boy Wonder here.

As for the Giants, we are in that period where the lineup is basically set, pitchers and catchers are still a week away and everyone is letting their imaginations run wild. I've seen everything from division winner to 100 losses and it's clear people have no idea what the Giants are going to be this year.

It may be better than knowing your team is doomed to failure. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things. But it makes this waiting period even worse. What the Hell is going to happen? Will Bonds collapse in a puddle of suspicious substances, will Barry Zito be average or slightly above? And what of Lincecum? Tell me, what of Lincecum!

Oh well. This is the part in the game where you're waiting to hit the sim button, to see exactly how well all those 80 and 90 players you've assembled will fit together. Hopefully I wont be cursing the screen once this starts up.

UPDATE: THT has a study on whether Bonds will get to Aaron this season. Their answer: Yes.