Friday, March 23, 2007

Interesting title for unispired post

Little time, so little thought and a quick hit ...

-With the Matt Schaub deal going down earlier this week David Carr is readily available for probably a fourth or fifth round pick. With the Raiders currently starring at Andrew Walter and Josh Booty as the only two quarterbacks on the depth chart, I think they should jump at this.

Carr knows how to play with what the Raiders will give him; A poor offensive line, one or two play makers and not much else. The last three years he's started 16 games a season with a completion percentage over 60 and a 41-37 touchdown to interception ratio. Not fantastic, but think how much an average quarterback would have helped with the way the defense played last season.

I'm guessing the trade would take JRuss off the draft board, but I'm OK with that. He's a amazing physical specimen, but lots of quarterbacks have been and turned out to be nothing. Yes, sometimes they're Peyton Manning or Vince Young. Carr is the low risk scenario, but there is enough upside to make it worth it.

It would also free up the Raiders to trade down in the first round to someone who wants to make sure Russell or Brady Quinn don't get lost to Detroit or Cleveland, or someone who absolutely needs Calvin Johnson. I see a lot of players in the first that could help the Raiders next year. Either Johnson, Joe Thomas or a defensive pick could be great, and picking up a few more second and third round picks will help the team rebuild the offensive line in a draft deep with big players.

Getting Carr by himself is a good move, but the dominoes it pushes over may be just as good, There are a lot more holes on this team than quarter back. And if we can spend a mid-round pick to get a starting quarterback I'm all for it. With that decision out of the way, the team can focus on a number of other issues.

And remember, the next best quarterback out there may be Joey Harrington.

-Duck Futter

The Oregon Ducks will be playing UNLV for a spot in the Elite 8 tonight. I'll admit I know almost nothing about the Rebels, so I'll take that as a good sign. I've gotten more into Oregon since I left there for some reason. THIS was one of the first years I actually watched both a football and basketball game on TV, despite living in an area for four years that replayed both constantly.

Whatever happens tonight it has been fun to watch this year. Aaron Brooks coming into his own, Tajuan Porter taking rainbow threes from anywhere on the court for absolutely no reason, and Maaaaaaaarty Luenen hoarding A's in his name.

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Friday, March 09, 2007

I'm the guy who reached for Todd Jones (at your draft)

It's not hard to make me feel like I know absolutely nothing about a subject. It's pretty much how I spend my time, going from area to area of human life, realizing I know next to nothing about any of it.

I bring this up because I'm joining my first fantasy baseball league since my senior year of high school. I stopped in college because every summer I was moving around constantly; spending time at school, my parents place, vacation and any number of places with or without Internet or phone access. With two younger brothers addicted to AIM and MySpace, finding time every week to check Steve Traschel's WHIP was not an easy task.

My main concern was ending up managing one of hose teams that would go unchecked for weeks on end. I hate those guys and I didn't want to become one. So instead of taking a chance every year of possible starting a dead end team I left it out.

Instead I played OOTP in an online league. Even that I had to quit after three seasons because I started working at my college paper and time became a much more precious commodity.

Not that I don't enjoy fantasy games. I play fantasy football every year. I love making rosters; I used to do I with my baseball cards in elementary school. I even held drafts and kept stats in m own made up system. It just felt like there were too man obstacles to me being a productive league member.

But now I'm out of school, have a job and a permanent high-speed all to myself and I felt ready to take the plunge.

So about a month ago I started to delve into the intricacies of the fantasy baseball world. My first concern was drafting strategies. I know the players, I know the stats, but how do I turn that knowledge into fantasy whoop ass?

I had to stop thinking about the players I would want on a real team (Miguel Cabrera is young, cheap and has great OBP numbers) to what would help me in fantasy (look at how many steals Juan Pierre has!!!). That was difficult. I sill want Miguel Cabrera over Juan Pierre, but coming to grips with the fact that I might actually want Juan Pierre was a challenge.

I started to look into the "Tier" draft strategy, which meant I had to look harder at the things I knew to be true (Roy Oswalt is better than Aaron Harang) and put rigid, unforgiving barriers between them (Roy Oswalt is worth exactly $9 more than Aaron Harang). Then there were the questions of when to draft pitchers, go for steals or hits, saves or strikeouts, etc ...

The other night I did a mock draft and got lost around the third round. I panicked and picked Chris Carpenter. I ended up without a first baseman until the 10th round when I grabbed Adrian Gonzalez. Corey Patterson was my starting center fielder.

So maybe I'm not ready. I plan to have a few more cram sessions, Identify backups to my backups and sleepers for those guys. And after 15 or 20 more mock drafts I'll get into a league around August.

I've more or less resigned my self to being cannon fodder for the more experienced players out there. I will go out, compete and be destroyed. Once I reattach my head to my body I will learn why I was so terrible.

So look out fantasy world of 2008. I'll be older. I'll be wiser. Do not mess with me (In the future).

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Thursday, March 01, 2007

Walking headline pun signs extension

While I'm working on something that should be a little bit longer post than I've been doing lately, I wanted to throw my hat in on the Matt Cain signing.

Required Reading: For background and an excellent explanation of my team's do this, hit up Lefty Malo, who predicted this about a month ago.

I still haven't seen final numbers, but the $9 million figure that Rich Harden and Noah Lowry got came up, so we'll have to see what the money for the option year is like.

Overall I'm happy with this. The risks are laid out clearly for both sides, and unless the option is $15 million the Giants have a decent deal on their hands. If Cain continues at the pace he had last season (108 ERA+) then the Giants have at least a league-average pitcher locked up at a constant rate for the next four years, with no messy arbitration hearings.

Bryan Tsao at the Hardball Times wasn't as enthusiastic, thinking the Giants did the deal a little early:
I guess this potentially represents a slight bargain, and might generate some goodwill, but I much prefer the Beane model, where you wait until after the second season and then buy out at least one year of free agency, since that year and the last year of arb are the ones that really kill you. Here the Giants are maybe saving three or four million if everything goes right, but have assumed a ton of risk for potentially very little return.

I don't agree with the "ton of risk" assessment. A four-year, $9.25 million deal isn't exactly Darren Dreifort or Gil Meche. Yes, there is a very good chance Cain doesn't progress or gets hurt, and the Giants get zero productivity back on the investment. But you have that with any pitcher and after this off season any deal$50 million almost looks like a bargain, even for someone with only one full major league season.

And the giggly fan in me likes to see the Giants developing and trying to keep talent. It has been awhile and I'd like to see a few of these guys stick around. The deal doesn't keep Cain in town any longer than his service time would have anyway, but the gesture from the front office is appreciated, and much better than what the Marlins have done with Miguel Cabrera.

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