Cain-related pun with the word 'close'

Running a baseball team is hard. People seem to forget this sometimes. There are 25 players on the major league roster, plus the 40-man which must be meticulously managed as well as hundreds of minor league players scattered around the country. The available pool of talent is more or less every baseball player in the world. And all of this is done on a restricted budget and in competition with 29 other teams, many of which have much more money.

And like almost anything in life one move can have lasting impacts on others. Brian Sabean liked to say during the Vlad Guerrero chase that signing him would have kept five role players off the roster. Signing Barry Zito to The Albatross will have lasting effects for the next seven years. Good lord, seven years. Let’s move on, shall we?

So as the market for Matt Morris has dried and crumbled, it seems from the various rumor mongers on the tubes that attention has redoubled on Noah Lowry. He’s young, cheap and relatively effective, especially compared to the other pitchers available right now. So while it may be enticing to start speculating what bounty of young position players could be pried away for young Noah, no move is made in a vacuum.

Henry Schulman repeated a rumor that’s been sent around recently that the organization is looking into turning Matt Cain into a closer next year to help him regain his control, cut down on his innings (Cain currently ranks eighth in the majors in abuse points, right behind Zito) and supposedly help is confidence after the disastrous run support of this season.

The common wisdom is that pitchers are more valuable as starters. They throw more innings, get more outs. What’s there to debate? But since Jonathan Papelbon it seems everyone wants to convert every other young starter into a closer. Looking at John Smotlz, someone who has spent prime years and succeeded at both roles, its obvious you can be value from both spots. Looking at his final two years as a closer (03-04) and his last two complete seasons, Smoltz had 117 PARA as a closer and 169 as a starter. His WARP1 totals were 12.8 and 15.7. So yes, even someone who acted as one of the best closers in the game had more value as a starter, though a 7.3WARP1 season out of the bullpen (Smoltz’s 2003) is not too bad either.

But that means someone needs to replace Cain in the rotation. If Lowry is traded that means in 2008 the Giants have Zito, Morris, Tim Lincecum, possibly the corpse of Russ Ortiz and a converted Jonathan Sanchez. Would the team really be that much better off getting 150 innings from whoever fill the cagey veteran fifth starter slot for Ortiz or letting Brad Hennesey or Randy Messenger close and have Cain in the rotation?

Really, if they’re worried about Cain’s workload (and they should be), monitor his pitch counts more and skip a start occasionally, such as they did last season. Cain is young, younger than Lincecum. This season hasn’t been good for any of the Giants and the organization probably just needs to hit the reset button at the end of the year. Bring everyone back in spring training and see how everyone has recovered. Sure, discus turning Cain into a closer. Options are fun. But let starting be the goal.

It's wrong. WRONG.

A coworker recently asked me what it's like for my favorite team to be a sideshow. I told him I've been a Raiders fan for a long time so I'm used to it.

Overall the attention given to the Barry Bonds home run chase hasn't bothered me too much. really, on any given night who else on this team deserves any attention. On numerous occasions I've read the line (or something similar): 'I can't wait until the Giants go back to being like any other last place team.' But for the most part I'm OK with it because I've been expecting it, prepared for it and now that it's here I'm ready for it. Yes, one player has taken over my favorite team but he is also the best player on that team and has done more to help this franchise win than any player since his godfather.

But then there are times such as tonight when I can't take it. Tim Lincnecum threw another decent start, six innings only two runs and two walks. While checking the boxscore on ESPN I saw the highlight video available so I clicked on it. I got to see Bonds popout and hit a double. No Lincecum, no Dave Roberts RBI. Just two almost meaningless at bats from a player who went 1-4. No one else on either team in the entire game deserved 10 seconds of time?

So tonight I'm ready for this whole thing to be over. I have nothing against Bonds really. I'm off the opinion that he wasn't the only one taking steroids if he did. If he's facing pitchers and opposing hitters juiced up then his records aren't out of context in his era and shouldn't be asterisked. I'd really rather players didn't do steroids, because of the effects on their health not the record book or so called sanctity of the game, but I don't think they were really cheating if it was an option freely available to all and not banned by the league. But this whole thing is making it harder for me to see Tim Lincecum highlights and that's just wrong. It's wrong.

You can jump now or jump later

I wanted to address this Ken Rosenthal tidbit real quick:

The Giants have expressed past interest in Sexson, who is owed the balance of his $14 million salary this season and $14 million next season.
The two teams apparently are not talking, but a Sexson-for-Matt Morris trade would make sense. Morris, also signed through next season, has struggled of late. Then again, Sexson is batting just .204.

Before I get into whether the Giants should do this I wanted to look at whether Sexson is even worth considering before putting him up against Morris. He’s had a terrible season so far but I’ve been surprised just how high the cliff he fell off of was, so I wanted to see if this is something we can expect him to rebound from.

First I went to Baseball Reference and neutralized his stats to get a quick and dirty idea of how unlucky he’s been (Do this for Matt Cain. It’s fun.). No luck. His line raises, but only to .203/.305/.406. Still crap.

So I went to FanGraphs. The big difference looks like Sexson has replaced a lot of line drives with groundballs, driving his BABIP to a staggering low .211. This isn’t all him being a terrible hitter, though that helps. For proof, Nick Punto, of the .218 average, has a .260 BABIP. Sexson is also hitting fewer home runs per flyball taking his ISO down to .203 from .240 last season. Those numbers have been on a steady decline since about 2004. One positive is that he is walking more and striking out less this season, for what it’s worth.

So is he worth it? As Rosenthal points out, Sexson and Morris are each making about the same next year so money is a wash. I hate to say it but having a big power hitter regress to the mean in a Giants uniform doesn’t sound that bad. Losing Morris would kill some space in the rotation and force someone such as Russ Ortiz up a little soon, but what the Hell.

But then I remembered this USS Mariner post from the off-season. Remember, this was written before the collapse. So yes, Sexson is on the decline.

Of course, Morris’ strikeouts rates have been on the decline since 2001 so who are we to quibble? And that’s the real point. I’ve spent this whole time arguing who is a better bet for the next season and a half, Richie Sexson or Matt Morris. Both are aging, declining and overpaid. Yet one of these two may be the best option for the Giantsin a deal this month. Is it 2010 yet?

Cast away me boys

We’re going notes style today because, well … because I’m lazy. Take that.

• Jonathan Sanchez and Russ Ortiz are imminent. Sanchez will be up today with Ortiz following soon after. That means two relievers are taking the long trip to Fresno as Bochy said that Sanchez isn’t ready to spend time in Fresno to be converted to a starter just yet. Apparently Pat Misch had two long innings because the team wanted to give him some time before a demotion and Lefty suggests we send down Jack Taschner for the other spot.


• Wednesday I started thinking about how much Boston wants to be rid of Wily Mo Pena and wondered in my head whether they would take someone such as Steve Kline just to be rid of him and clear room for a different trade. Seemed like a good idea. The Giants need to get young power hitters and get rid of old everybody. Perfect match. But Pena isn’t an ideal player. Tell me, which of these two career lines belongs to Pena and which belongs to Pedro Feliz?
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

  Player A	.251	.287	.434
  Player B	.256	.311	.468

  
  If you’re a Giants fan you’ll probably guess Pena is the one with a slight lead in each category, which is correct. But still. Not so good. Of course Pena is seven years younger than Pete Happy and has had plenty of potential-establishing seasons, including his .301/.349/.489 line in 276 AB in 2006. His BABIP was over .400 that season but he does have a .339 career mark in that category. Basically he’s not the perfect player for the Giants but at this point they aren’t in a position to gripe. It’s going to take chances on guys like Pena to try and fins the next Jack Cust or Carlos Pena, who can give the team cheap power to supplement whatever hopefully comes up through the farm system.
  
  Well apparently I was just a little off in my speculating as both Boston papers said today that Pena is indeed a marked man, but that the team wants a right handed hitting outfielder how can play center. Where could they find one of those?
  
  And to prove I’m not insane, not only does the Herald mention Roberts and Winn by name today, but Chris over at Bay City Ball notes the same thing. Two Giants bloggers named Chris citing the same article on the same day? Let’s hope it’s a happy coincidence.


• Just for old time’s sack I wanted to acknowledge all of the Salomon Torres trade rumors that have been flying around. This game is still one of my favorite as a Giants fan so Torres will always have a special place in my memory. Right now Torres is being linked to, who else, the Red Sox.


• I also wanted to link to this article at The Hardball Times (even if it's written by a Padres fan), going over the top young talent in the NL West. Cain, Sanchez and Lincecum are all mentioned and itseems to be somewhat optimistic predictions for what it's worth.
  


• Last and probably least, I’ve been listening to the new Against Me! Album, New Wave, since it came out last week. It’s still a good record, I love American’s Abroad and The Ocean, but seems to have more 70s and 80s style pop riffs embedded in the music. Still better than most of the music I listen to, but not the best the band has done.

Someday we'll all look back on this and laugh

At this point in the season I feel like when I think back to the 2007 season I’ll remember:

1. The beginning of the Lincecum era
2. Bonds’ chase
3. Losing 3-2 games

That’s why Monday’s 3-2 loss to the Cubs just seemed so perfect. It was the Giants great 12-year-old hope getting a no-decision in a close loss. If only Barry had hit a home run in the first it would have been the most memorable game of the season.

Tim Lincecum did well but his five walks were not a good sign. They didn’t hurt him too much but there’s no reason to do it just because you can.

More Trade Stuff

Figured I‘d just tack this on instead of making a new post.

As the Merc pointed out earlier the Mariners are interested in Matt Morris, at least enough to send a scout, but apparently so are the Braves, if the rumors hold. I know Balentien and Salty are way too much to ask for Morris but I’ll take anything the Braves or Mariners have to offer.

Something else that has been pointed out before but is now being talked about again by the Great Ken Rosenthal. Prospects are now way overvalued. It makes me wonder if maybe trading someone such as Jonathan Sanchez might not be such a bad idea. Rebuilding is all about ending up with more than you started with, normally through the draft and trading veterans for multiple prospects. But if the Giants can increase their overall talent and tradeable assets by giving up a youngster maybe they should, especially is the reward is (semi)young hitting.

Matt Morris really wants to stay in San Francisco

So after the Giants come back from a 6-0 deficit against the Dodgers, including a grand slam from a gimpy Randy Winn, go through 12 innings, use all but one player on the roster and lose 8-7, my only thought this morning was this:

They can never trade Matt Morris now.

The old man who had so much magic early in the season is showing his true colors the last month or so. We knew during his 2.50 ERA May that he wasn’t that good. This is the man who threw the fifth-lowest amount of pitches over 80 mph last season and hasn’t struck out at least six batters per nine since 2003. Even looking at his month-by-month splits, he had a 1.58 whip in five April starts, almost as bad as his 1.64 in two July starts.

Following his June 11 start against the Blue Jays, a complete game win where he gave up three runs, Morris was positioning himself as one of the top available starters for July if the Giants remained out of it. All he needed to do was to not blow up down the stretch and it seemed as if the Giants would have something to negotiate with.

But as one month of outstanding performance can make a mediocre veteran seem like the last piece a contender needs to get into the playoffs, so can one mistimed week destroy it. In his last five starts Morris has given up six or more runs three times. He gave up more than three once in his previous 13 to start the season. His ERA has gone from 2.56 after the Blue Jays game to 3.86 after his six-run fifth on Saturday.

Morris still had interest from some teams even on Saturday. Andrew Baggarly in the Merc reported that a Mariners scout was in attendance, who we can only hope lost the notes from the game on the way back to Washington. And this lovely message was on Morris’ Rotoworld page today:

… his trade value should be mostly gone. He's not someone any contender should feel confident about starting in October.

At this point it seems the Giants will get nothing for Morris they can use unless they are desperately short on baseball and things to carry them in.

It's putting the I and F so close together that scares me

Friday the Giants officially announced Brian Sabean’s two-year extension.

Considering I just put down my thoughts on Sabean I’ll keep this brief. But there was one thing that popped up here and here specifically that I wanted to address. From Henry Schulman’s article:

"The hope is we can surprise ourselves with what I think the team could be, led by (our) young pitching staff," Magowan said, "but if in fact we need to develop patience so that we're in a better chance to win and sustain winning in a couple of years or so, we're prepared to do that.

Developing patience and growing a farm system is not an if. It is the smart way to run a baseball team. Having home grown players allows you to move in cheap options who most likely will sign for less than they would get on the open market if you choose to keep them. Look at the deal Travis Hafner got recently. You want to develop players like that yourself because buying them on the open market is nearly impossible to do for nine-spots in the lineup.

Having a roster full of guys making the minimum or below market value allows you to go out and sign guys like, forgive the comparison but I think it fits, Vladimir Guerrero. Right now the Angels have five starters who were either drafted by the team or have never played major league ball for any other club. That has allowed them to go out and get guys like Guerrero, Orlando Cabrera and Gary Matthews (even if they should have passed on that last one). Minimum guys give you flexibility to enhance a contender when the time comes.

A deep farm system keeps you from having to spend millions on average players to fill bench spots. It gives you trading chips if necessary. There are other ways to win, but if the Giants truly want to create a new wave, as Sabean puts it, a sustainable stretch of winning, then that is how it’s done. Look at the Braves. Six of their eight position starters were drafted or came up through the club’s minor league system. Same goes for three of the five starting pitchers. The team occasionally adds a Gary Sheffield or J.D. Drew, but relies mainly on the players they can develop on their own.

So while the press conference talk is nice, I don’t buy it yet. I want to see who Matt Morris is playing for in August and how the roster in San Jose and Connecticut looks before I get comfortable with Sabean Redux.

The man in charge

The Giants begin the second half Friday but the games aren’t really the focus from now on. Sure, at bats will be checked for Barry Bonds home runs and to figure out which youngsters can hack it for next season. But from now on this is Brian Sabean’s season.

The second half starts amid rumors of his impending extension, to which I’m moving between slight nausea and a deep depression that I will never seen a champion at May’s Field in my lifetime. Sabean hasn’t done much in the last five years at least to prove he knows how the game, both on the field and in the GM’s office, is played anymore. Not to say the game has changed significantly in that time frame, but he seems less and less able to learn from what has happened and execute a plan.

Through the rest of this month at least he has the ability to try and change that. I’m sure the team could win its next 10 (sure meaning possible in the coin-flip sense) and make it to .500. San Diego and Los Angeles don’t play each other out of the break so they could both lose their first 10 and the Giants could be right back in this. But if the whole NL West doesn’t meet in the middle over the next two weeks the Giants are sellers at the deadline.

With Matt Morris and Ray Durham on the block the team can’t get much back but Sabean can prove he has a plan and try and execute it. It’s pretty much accepted the team has to move to rebuild the farm system and develop young hitters. Morris and Durham, even Jonathan Sanchez, aren’t going to get Adm Jones from Seattle are anything like that but moving guys such as that will show that Sabean knows this team isn’t built to contend. Even though he’s around hitting milestone homeruns every couple of weeks, the window to win a championship has passed. Basically all I’m looking for from Sabean is an acknowledgment of that fact.

There have been rumblings that Peter Magowan and the rest of the Giants management have been hampering Sabean (see link above), including hoisting the Barry Zito contract on him, which is infinitely more frightening. As any Raiders fan can tell you, having crazy people in ownership can kill any franchise. If Magowan is the problem there is no one to fire him and no hope beyond praying he comes to his senses and gets out of the way. If all he wants is to contend enough to keep revenue up there’s nothing a fan can do besides abandoning the team, which very few want to do.

Some have said one of Sabean’s conditions for the extension is more autonomy. If he stays I hope he gets it. But right now I want to see him take steps to fix the mess that was created, whoever made it. I’ll take a symbolic Morris for B-level prospect, something that shows he’s looking to what he can do and not what has happened.

A thing of beauty

As much as today's 7-3 loss to the Reds could be about Barry Bonds and his 751st home run, I was left with nothing but thoughts of Barry Zito.

As a former Bay Area resident and the fiance of an A's fan I had plenty of knowledge of Zito before he came over to the Giants this winter. My top three things:

1. That curveball
2. That guitar
3. At any moment he could collapse in on himself like a dying star

To me Zito was a good pitcher who got caught in a lot of disastrously bad innings. Seven run innings. He had a ton of starts, at least for a higher rotation starter, that ended after two or three innings with more than five runs given up.

But having him on the Giants has taught me more about his ability to fall apart and almost appreciate them in a coffee-house interpretive dance sort of way.

Tonight he had a no-hitter through four innings but gave up two runs. Twice -- TWICE! -- in a row he walked a batter with the bases loaded. That raises his career total to 13, not including three HBP. Tonight Zito got through five innings but had to come out becuase he threw 113 pitches.

I think in course of a season the Giants are better to have Zito than a AAA scrub. Obviously the team expects more with the money they're paying him, but through 162 games he does have the ability to dominate occasionally, so let's not get into the Through him off the Team discussion. That scenario's not coming up any time soon. The key to living with a pitcher like Zito on your team is just to take some comedy out of performances like this. If the bullpen had picked him up and the Giants had and offense that was not the Giants offense, he could have gotten away with a no decision.

Zito's just a horribly expensive piece of the puzzle to what will hopefully be a decent team in three to four years with Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.

The good, the bad and Livermore

I recently talked a little bit about of unlucky Matt Cain has been this season, going 2-9 with a 3.38 ERA so far. But Cain hasn’t been the only Giants pitcher with luck issues, both good and bad.

Tim Lincecum

The Enchanter’s fantastic performance today seems to have put off those discussions of him skipping a start. Three hits, 12 strikeouts and no walks in seven innings will do that. But while Lincecum’s previous skid got a lot of attention no all of it was the rookie’s fault.

Coming into Sunday, Linceum’s FIP of 3.77 was 1.42 lower than his ERA of 5.19. That would rank him first in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. That doesn’t say Linceum isn’t to blame. Sunday broke a streak of four straight games with at least four walks, including the rebound game against San Diego of Monday. But though Lincecum hadn’t been flawless, the Giants defense wasn’t helping the rookie out at all.

Noah Lowry

Lowry has had a bit of actual luck this season. The lefty is sort of the opposite of Lincecum, picking up a lot from the Giants in the field. This season Lowry has an ERA of 3.46, nearly a full run better than his FIP of 4.34. Lowry has had a slight dip in his BAPIP and home runs per game, with his home runs per fly ball down almost 4 percent from last season. It seems Lowry may grow into his FIP if those numbers fall back to where they’ve been.

Matt Morris

MattyMo has been the Anti-Cain this season, getting great results out of less than stellar stuff. His strikeout rate has continued to decline, and so far he’s actually been walking more batter than normal (2.83 in 2007 to 2.53 career). What’s so interesting is that his BABIP has remained almost constant along with his peripherals, right around .300. Even his batted ball rates are similar. Looking through his FanGraphs page it’s hard to tell, with my limited statistical knowledge, what the Hell is different. His home run per flyball rate is about half of last year, but I’m not sure if that’s enough. Hey, his FIP is 3.60, so maybe it isn’t all luck.

Barry Zito

No luck here. The $1 Billion Man is getting exactly what he deserves. And so if Giants management. Fans, no so much. Seven years is a very long time, and aging hippies are so sad.

Now non of these are end alls on luck. All of these pitchers have earned their stats to some extent, so to say someone is all good or bad luck is missing the point. It’s just interesting how pitchers on the same staff can have such different outcomes based on their peripherals.