A title for all season

As is quickly becoming a tradition I received the Bill James Handbook for Christmas yet again. This is a very good tradition. And as I've found happens when I get the handbook I start writing a bit more.

I wont go into most of the player stats, which can be obtained in some form elsewhere, or the projections which can be had (in sortable tables no less) here.

But one of the things I enjoy most is the manager profiles. For as little as a I think a manager can affect a game, it's fun to see what they think they can do. For instance the Mets under Willie Randolph attempted 246 steals, leading the league for the second time in three years. But that may have had more to do with Jose Reyes than Randolph.

I always head straight for the Giants' manager first and this year was an interesting experiment. Bruce Bochy, who had a huge track record established with only one team, finally moving to a new situation. Would he change his tendencies away from Petco and with a new set of talent, or would he manage strictly to the team?

Bochy lead the league in two categories; long outings (110+ pitches) and platoon percentage.

Platoon percentage is something he's lead the league in twice and also something he's done pretty consistently throughout his career so it makes sense it would continue in San Francisco.

And most of Bochy's decisions went with his career norms, be that a little above or below the average manager. He used a few more lineups and attempted a few more steals than other managers in 2007, but otherwise he was pretty boring.

But what bothers me is the long outings. In his previous 12 years with the Padres Bochy average 42 quick-hook games and 15 long outings. This year he had 26 quick-hooks and 36 long outings.

And what bothers me the most is that 16 of those starts, nearly half, belonged to Matt Cain, owner of a 22-year-old right arm. According to BP Cain finished seventh in the majors with 1885.34 abuse points per start and eighth overall. Abuse points exist to show when arms are being overused and pushing dangerously close to injury. Why would Bochy be pushing Cain in the middle of a lost season to possibly injure half of the organization's hope in a post-Barry world?

Well, here're the averages from Cain's 16 starts with 110 or more pitches:

GS	Record	IP	H	ERA	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pit	Str	GmScr	Score
16	3-7	6.81	5.3	2.64	2.688	6.25	0.5	28.31	114.5	72.06	61	+0.33

It seems obvious looking at the Games why Bochy let him pitch so long: In only two starts did he leave with a difference of three or more runs, both times with the Giants ahead (one of which they ended up losing). In those 16 games Cain had an ERA of 2.64. Bochy was just letting a good pitcher finish up a good game.

Cain also came out at the end of an inning 10 times. I wonder if his pitch counts would have been maybe a batter or two smaller in the American League where Bochy wouldn't have had to worry about Cain's spot in the order.

While those may be reasons why Bochy chose to stretch Cain it's no excuse for letting your best young pitcher hit 110+ 16 times, half of his starts in 2007. But maybe this can't all be laid at Bochy's feet.

Cain came out in the sixth three times, four times after the seventh and nine times in or at the completion of the seventh. Only five times all year did he pitch into the seventh and not get over 110 pitches.

It seems Cain needs to be more efficient with his pitches. His walks were a tick higher in these starts then his season average. And maybe the only way Cain can learn to pitch better while tired late in a game is to do so.

But the funny thing about that is how different his walks were in his first eight 110+ starts than the second half. His first eight starts he walked fewer than three only once, a loss to the Mets on May 31. In his second eight starts he walked three or more not once. But the results weren't that much better.

	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	BF	Pit	Str	GmSc	Pit/BF
First 8	55.4	39	15	15	30	46	3	2.44	233	918	555	493	3.9
Second 8	53.5	46	19	17	13	54	5	2.86	220	914	598	483	4.2

It'll be interesting to watch how Cain's efficiency progresses next season and how he's treated by his manager.