When It's Time for a Change...

Moving Day

2008-01-25T10:14:00.000-08:00

I've decided to move this blog to Word Press. You can now find it here.

Linky

2008-01-21T13:46:00.000-08:00

That word sounds dirty, doesn't it? I have a shorter break at work today so this will be a little short.

I will be continuing my arbitration predictions but I recently found some recent cases missing from my database so I'm going to try and fix that before continuing. I have a terrible feeling I'll be digging through news reports from MLB.com for a few days.

Jim Callis laid out the first five picks in next summer's draft with our San Francisco Giants holding on at No. 5. He predicts the Giants take first-baseman Justin Smoak out of South Carolina because apparently the team is bereft of position prospects. Who knew?

Not to make a fuss but isn't that the exact same reasoning from last year when Sabean started off by picking two starting pitchers?

The Hardball Times finished off it's greatest World Series games series by grabbing the top-10 game sevens. The Giants lose three of the top-5, not counting 2002.

Finally, the Giants are looking into developing a parking lot near Mays Field into some kind of shopping center. I haven't been to a game in a few years since I'm now 500 miles north so I'm not sure how that would affect everything in the area. But I know that I haven't enjoyed driving out there when I have gone and normally BART it. The article suggests that other parking options would need to be created, but it still seemed intersting enough to pass on.

Arbitration Goodness

2008-01-20T18:13:00.000-08:00

Looking at this post over at Biz of Baseball, I wanted to take my hand at predicting arbitration cases.

The one that seemed most interesting to me was Ryan Howard. He has the largest gap between the player and club offer and will get the highest raise of any player regardless how the case is decided.

Howard is asking the Phillies for $10 million and the club is only willing to pay $7. Another thing that interested me was that those figures are almost exactly what Albert Pujols and the Cardinals proposed four years ago.

Pujols lost that case despite hitting more than 40 home runs that year.

The first stumbling block for Howard is that his offer is so much higher than the club's. Since arbitration started more than 30 years ago 116 cases have been decided where the player had an offer more than 45 percent higher than the club. Players have won those cases nine times.

Howard comes in just under that mark at around 43 percent but I think those numbers show just how hard it is for a player to get closer to market value in arbitration. Matt Holiday recently opted for a 2-year, $23 million deal with the Rockies.

Pujols' case is the best comparable. In 2003, the year before his case, Pujols posted an 11.6 WARP and a line of .359/.439/.667. This last year Howard had a 6.4 WARP and hit .268/.392/.584. Pujols was second in the MVP voting and Howard was fifth.

The average player salary has gone up about 15 percent between 2004 and 2007, which would make Pujols' award just over $8 million now and probably more once the 2008 average comes in.

For now it looks as if Howard's best shot is to try and work out a deal with the Phillies before the case is decided.

Approach the bench

2008-01-18T16:36:00.000-08:00

Today is arbitration numbers day! Hooray!

Players and clubs exchange figures today for what we can only hope become horribly divisive arbitrations hearings to determine their 2008 salaries. It's helped the Giants out before.

Coming into today the Giants had three players eligible for hearings, but that changed with Brad Hennessey agreed to a $1.6 million, one-year deal.

That leaves Kevin Correa and Vinne Chulk as the two remaining cases. But don't expect them to get all the way to the bench.

The Giants have had only one case in the last 10 years reach a hearing, losing a decision to A.J. Pierzynski in 2004. The team offered $2.25 million, he wanted $3.5 million, and by God he got it.

Since arbitration began in 1973, the Giants have had (as far as I can find, anyway) only six cases reach a hearing but they lost all but two. The lost their first case in 1981 over a $20,000 difference with Johnnie LeMaster. Pierzynski's millions are the most ever awarded, be it a win or a loss.

One intersting thing about the Pierzynski deal was that it is currently the 13th greatest difference ever between a team and a player. The tops is still Albert Pujols' $3.5 million gap in 2004. In 2003 he made $900,000 after hitting .359/.439/.667 for the Cardinals. He wanted $10.5 million, the team offered $7 million and the team won out. Still, the $6.1 million difference between his 2003 and 2004 salaries is the second-greatest difference awared in an arbitration case. The tops is the $6.9 million difference Miguel Cabrera was awarded in a win over the Marlins last year.

No wonder he's a Tiger now.

2008-01-15T19:03:00.000-08:00

Link dumps are fun!

John Sickels: Giants' Top 20 Prospects
John Sickels at Minor League Ball lays out the preliminary Giants top 20. The top is mostly as expected with Manny Burriss a little lower than I had hoped, as John really is wary of Manny's bat. Henry Sosa is No. 2 overall which surprised me a little bit. A lot times I lose track of players during the season and since he wasn't among Baseball America's top 30 last year I sort of didn't climb him in my mental list despite a good 2007.

We're really getting bored now
Wouldn't Johnny Estrada be a more suitable option for a backup catcher than what we have already?
-- Randy S., Paradise, Calif.

That's a question from Chris Haft's recent mailbag. Are we all getting desperate for action? Even discussing who would be a better backup catcher for the 2008 Giants is so far from useful I can't imagine how Randy S. spends the rest of his days. Arguing with his wife over the color of garbage bags? Agonizing over which copy of Harlan County War to rent at Blockbuster. Sure they're the exact same thing but you can tell from the box which one may have more scratches.

Haft does have some good answers to mostly on point questions but occasionally he'll slip something like "... ideally, the club will address the third-base issue and add a veteran reliever to provide experience and stability before pitchers and catchers report on Feb. 13 ..." in there just to mess with me. He seems to hint at times he gets the whole stathead thing and then something like that will just make me twitch a little bit. We don't really need veteran anything. We need to throw as many young arms at the wall as possible and keep throwing until enough stick.

Chris Shelton and other players who wont be on the 2008 Giants
Chris at Bay City Ball rounds up the 15 spring training invitees and continues the discussion over Chris Shleton being DFA'd by the Rangers. Sure Shelton would be an excellent pick up but these players always seem to elude the Giants, even with the glaring need they have. That's why Craig Brazell will be playing in Japan this year.

Steroids climb the ladder
I try to stay away from the whole steroid issue - it just doesn't interest me at all. The steroid era is just that, an era in the game where all the players did something that changed the environment. Stop the holy war.But when the commissioner of baseball openly, in a way, discusses sanctions against your team's general manager, well, maybe I'll start to pay attention. Selig only responded when directly asked whether he would consider punishing Brian Sabean and I don't think this will ever go anywhere, but in this environment where everyone is so in need of at least one head at every level to role, well, it's hard to tell.

Pete Happy has a friend

2008-01-14T15:24:00.001-08:00

Check out this Ken Rosenthal article on possible landing places for Pedro Feliz. Interested teams - besides the Giants, of course - are the Dodgers, Brewers and Phillies.

Rosenthal doesn't see the Dodgers as fitting and with the signing of Mike Cameron I can't see there being enough space on the BrewCrew for Feliz unless Bill Hall finds a new address.

But after you read and digest it go back to the lede. If it still says Feliz's career OBP is .248, congratulations, you just read an error in a Ken Rosenthal column.

And the lede itself is kind of weird. It suggests that since The Worst Third Baseman in the Major Leagues has averaged 21 home runs the last four years in an environment such as Mays Field, if he only had an OBP 60 points higher than his career average (though in the article it's written as 100 points) he would be getting $10 million a year.

(OK, quick aside. Feliz was not TWTBITML last season. That was Nick Punto, based on RC/27. But I'm sure we can all agree anything that happens in Minnesota doesn't really count, at least when it comes to offense.)

Last year Feliz drew 29 walks in 2007. To get to .348 Feliz would have needed to reach base an extra 34 times based on his PA from 2007. That means replacing 34 strikeouts with walks, hits or being hit by a pitch. If Ken Rosenthal magically extended the season the walk Pedro Feliz to respectability and treasure it would take around 55 straight walks to get him there. That would be about 14 extra games of walking in every plate appearance.

So yeah, Pedro Feliz is close to a $10 million player. All he needs is 14 games a year against a 10-year-old who really just wants to go home and play X-Box instead of the stupid Little League game his parents signed him up for. That is all that separates Happy from his rightful glory.

Doing it right

2008-01-09T12:56:00.000-08:00

As a journalist who feels that online is the only way to distribute and digest information I have a deep appreciation for people and organizations that know how to get the word out. Conversely, I have an intense loathing for anyone who can't figure it out.

I have 11 Giants related feeds in my Google reader. That's mainly because I'm still selective about the information I receive directly sent to me. I'm more a person that wants the very best at my door and I'll follow links to the rest when they warrant it.

One of the chosen few is the Chronicle's Giants feed. I also subscribe to Henry Schulman's podcast on iTunes. While the podcast can be nice occasionally while I'm reading something else the feed itself is terrible.

Today I had seven new entries waiting for me. One was Giants related, this Schulman piece on the Pedro Feliz talks which has made the rounds. Two others were on the hall of fame vote and four were about Roger Clemens and steroids.

Those six other articles may have something Giants related. The hall of fame articles could compare Jim Rice to Orlando Cepeda or tell some interesting story of Goose Gossage discussing facial hair with Gaylord Perry, a renown barber from his college days in Akron, Ohio. I don't know. I didn't read them.

San Francisco is in the middle of one of the most technologically advanced areas in the country and it can't even put up a blog on it's hometown team that does more than post a comment starter every few days. What I want, and I'm guessing others like me, is something like what the Mariners have at the Seattle Times.

I know the Chronicle shouldn't be considered the premier source of Giants information for the stats based community, that would most likely be the San Jose Mercury-News. But shouldn't we as fans expect more information from the city's paper?

Lineup Analysis of Doom

2008-01-02T15:17:00.000-08:00

I’ve been putting this off for a while now. The tools were there. The Baseball Musings lineup analyzer. The Bill James Handbook predictions. I just couldn’t bring myself to do it.

But with Aaron Rowand now set to man centerfield and hopefully no major acquisitions forthcoming I thought it was time to see just how bad the 2008 San Francisco Giants lineup could be.

Here’s the lineup I used:

C: Benjie Molina
1B: Dan Ortmeir
2B: Ray Durham
3B: Kevin Frandsen
SS: Omar Vizquel
LF: Randy Winn
CF: Rowand
RF: Nate Schierholtz

The names and numbers went in and out came the answer: 3.698 runs per game.

That translates to 600 runs in 162 games. That would have put the Giants dead last in the NL last year by 70 runs (Washington scored 673, the Giants 683). Here’s the link to the full report.

But that is kind of a worst-case scenario. The best has the lineup scoring closer to 700, better than last year’s team, which included Barry Bonds. But that is still more than 150 runs behind the Phillies and Rockies.

This exercise isn’t a prediction that the Giants will score exactly 695 runs next year. It’s just a way to temper my expectations for the year. Looking at past and likely future performance, the 2008 Giants will be around the worst team in the league but not historically bad. With a few breaks, who knows.

Of course Ray Durham could be traded mid-year, Pedro Feliz could be resigned or Brian Sabean could decide Jason Lane is the best young player in the game and must be acquired at all costs. And really, this is all just for fun anyway.

UPDATE: I wanted to add the annual Diamond Mind sims at Replacement Level Yankees Blog to the mix. They have the Giants scoring 714 runs in 2008, which is close to the best lineup the generator spit out. Of course the Diamond Mind excercise is a little more complex than what I ran, so hopefully (or not depending on how low you'd like to see the draft pick be) that's closer to the truth.

Quickly

2008-01-01T22:19:00.000-08:00

It's a holiday (Happy New Year's to everyone) and I don't pay myself overtime so this will be quick.

If you click here two things will happen. You will (1) see Shea Hillenbrand holding a horse. And (2) you will read that the Giants inquired as to his availability to play baseball next season.

I can't decide which is more frightening, but I know which has the lowest WARP potential for 2008 (and it's not the horse).

A title for all season

2007-12-30T22:59:00.000-08:00

As is quickly becoming a tradition I received the Bill James Handbook for Christmas yet again. This is a very good tradition. And as I've found happens when I get the handbook I start writing a bit more.

I wont go into most of the player stats, which can be obtained in some form elsewhere, or the projections which can be had (in sortable tables no less) here.

But one of the things I enjoy most is the manager profiles. For as little as a I think a manager can affect a game, it's fun to see what they think they can do. For instance the Mets under Willie Randolph attempted 246 steals, leading the league for the second time in three years. But that may have had more to do with Jose Reyes than Randolph.

I always head straight for the Giants' manager first and this year was an interesting experiment. Bruce Bochy, who had a huge track record established with only one team, finally moving to a new situation. Would he change his tendencies away from Petco and with a new set of talent, or would he manage strictly to the team?

Bochy lead the league in two categories; long outings (110+ pitches) and platoon percentage.

Platoon percentage is something he's lead the league in twice and also something he's done pretty consistently throughout his career so it makes sense it would continue in San Francisco.

And most of Bochy's decisions went with his career norms, be that a little above or below the average manager. He used a few more lineups and attempted a few more steals than other managers in 2007, but otherwise he was pretty boring.

But what bothers me is the long outings. In his previous 12 years with the Padres Bochy average 42 quick-hook games and 15 long outings. This year he had 26 quick-hooks and 36 long outings.

And what bothers me the most is that 16 of those starts, nearly half, belonged to Matt Cain, owner of a 22-year-old right arm. According to BP Cain finished seventh in the majors with 1885.34 abuse points per start and eighth overall. Abuse points exist to show when arms are being overused and pushing dangerously close to injury. Why would Bochy be pushing Cain in the middle of a lost season to possibly injure half of the organization's hope in a post-Barry world?

Well, here're the averages from Cain's 16 starts with 110 or more pitches:

GS	Record	IP	H	ERA	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pit	Str	GmScr	Score
16	3-7	6.81	5.3	2.64	2.688	6.25	0.5	28.31	114.5	72.06	61	+0.33

It seems obvious looking at the Games why Bochy let him pitch so long: In only two starts did he leave with a difference of three or more runs, both times with the Giants ahead (one of which they ended up losing). In those 16 games Cain had an ERA of 2.64. Bochy was just letting a good pitcher finish up a good game.

Cain also came out at the end of an inning 10 times. I wonder if his pitch counts would have been maybe a batter or two smaller in the American League where Bochy wouldn't have had to worry about Cain's spot in the order.

While those may be reasons why Bochy chose to stretch Cain it's no excuse for letting your best young pitcher hit 110+ 16 times, half of his starts in 2007. But maybe this can't all be laid at Bochy's feet.

Cain came out in the sixth three times, four times after the seventh and nine times in or at the completion of the seventh. Only five times all year did he pitch into the seventh and not get over 110 pitches.

It seems Cain needs to be more efficient with his pitches. His walks were a tick higher in these starts then his season average. And maybe the only way Cain can learn to pitch better while tired late in a game is to do so.

But the funny thing about that is how different his walks were in his first eight 110+ starts than the second half. His first eight starts he walked fewer than three only once, a loss to the Mets on May 31. In his second eight starts he walked three or more not once. But the results weren't that much better.

	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	BF	Pit	Str	GmSc	Pit/BF
First 8	55.4	39	15	15	30	46	3	2.44	233	918	555	493	3.9
Second 8	53.5	46	19	17	13	54	5	2.86	220	914	598	483	4.2

It'll be interesting to watch how Cain's efficiency progresses next season and how he's treated by his manager.

We came to dance, Aaron

2007-12-28T19:34:00.000-08:00

I promised a non-alarmist, calm headed look at Aaron Rowand. Maybe even looking into the good side of the signing. This may not live up to those high-minded ideals but it will shoot for them.

OK, here we go. Unlike Petco, Mays Field only slightly reduces runs. What it does that helps pitchers is kill home runs. Rowand is the type of player that the Giants should sign to take advantage of this unique space the team plays in.

Mays Field's Triple's Alley in left-center plays to hitters with doubles power with enough speed to stretch those to extra bases and not enough power to kill their value through decreased home run power. It also requires quick, plus-fielding outfielders.

Rowand has hit 30 or more doubles in every season he's had at least 500 PA ('04, '05, and '07) and since 2005 is +21 on the Fielding Bible +/- system. While not the best fielder, by many accounts he is above average.

While Barry Bonds has shown that no park can defend against a guy who can hit the ball 500 feet, those guys are expensive and few and far between. Until the team can develop one of those it needs to go after outfielders such as Rowand with a little power and good range to play to the strengths of the park.

But the reason to do that is to get players other teams don't value so you can build cheap and mistakes don't cost you that much. The Giants are so far behind the game at this point they need to steal talent wherever they possibly can and save money to lock up the pitchers they seem to be able to develop. Finding players whose talents can only be best used on your field is definitely a start.

Signing Rowand at his peak value is not the way to go about it. So my happy face analysis is that Sabean has found himself a player that should work well in San Francisco, but not at this price, at 30 years old and at this team's pace of development. Maybe in a few years, if Rowand continues to play at his current level, this might turn out to be a key signing for a winning team. But so many steps have to happen between here and there it just looks like Sabean is grasping for anyone who can help keep this team out of the record books offensively next year.

Oh Sabean of old, how I missed thee

2007-12-12T21:09:00.000-08:00

But for the Giants the best thing that can happen is nothing. No free agent signings. No major trades. No discussions with Pedro Feliz.
-Me, Dec. 3, 2007

Just over a week. That was all the time it took for Brian Sabean to completely destroy any remaining faith I had in him. And really, I'm surprised he held out that long.

Today he signed Aaron Rowand to a five-year, $60 million deal. Which isn't so bad in itself than in what it represents.

Rowand serves no particular need for a team in the Giants' situation. Not only do they have a player who can hold down center in Randy Winn (not to mention Fred Lewis, Dave Roberts and Rajai Davis, though those aren't great options) but the team isn't at that point where Rowand can make any significant difference.

This year Rowand was worth around 8-9 wins to the Phillies (7.8 WARP1, 90 win shares), though outside of Philly and with a slight drop next year let's just say the Giants improve by six games just from him. Congratulations, even going by Pythagoras you are now an 83-win team. And that's with Barry Bonds.

Rowand is a player you add when you are at 80-wins on paper and you need to get into the playoffs. Yes, the rise of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain could potentially offset the loss of Bonds, Ray Durham could return to professional baseball and in Bruce Jenkins' wet-dream Rowand could provide the spark everyone was lacking while a Bonds-less clubhouse gains a magical five wins by not being so pissy anymore. But with two huge holes bookending the infield and nothing waiting until Angel Villalona, Rowand doesn't seem to make much sense.

This signing shows Sabean is either overly optimistic at how fast this team can rebuild or has no plan on how to rebuild. After months of talking about how the young players were going to get a chance and that there would be an acceptance of starting over, Sabean pulls out a decidely Sabean move.

At five years Rowand will be 35 when this contract finishes. The Giants do not need a 35-year-old starting CF in 2012 or a $12 million bench player.

But the numbers that really get me are the ones below.

.309/.374/.515

.313/.368/.521

That top line what Rowand did this year. The line below? His 90th percentile PECOTA projection. Way to skim for potential bargains, Sabes.

(I'll try and look at the good side of this deal tomorrow, but I just needed to get that out now before calm and reason returned.)

If only we could get Alex Rios, I could forget Bonds

2007-12-03T19:07:00.000-08:00

Most off-seasons present a chance to be optimistic. Adding that new third starter or that guy for the fifth-slot to protect the core from last year is all it will take. Those young guys who came on like gangbusters in September will come into their own and rule the division.

But for the Giants the best thing that can happen is nothing. No free agent signings. No major trades. No discussions with Pedro Feliz. Not that losing Noah Lowry would be small, but it's not like auctioning off Johan Santana to the Evil Empires or the semi-annual Fish Swap Fire Sale.

All Brian Sabean needs to do to reclaim my and maybe many other fans' faith is not screw things up more than he already has. That's what was so reassuring about his statement that Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum were hanging around unless he was "shocked." And what makes things such as this so shocking.

Now, remember, the link above goes to a Canadian source. Who knows what kind of crazy things are going on up there.

But if Sabean is pulling out of the Miguel Cabrera talks over Cain and Lincecum but is simply waiting for Alex Rios to pull the trigger ... well, that is a world I no longer want to be a part of.

I have no faith in the rumor as reported (Troy Glaus is also mentioned). Sabean may be trying to pull that off but unless he has been flat out lying than Jonathan Sanchez is probably the target.

Either way it is just one more reminder that while these rumors are fun they are worth less than the stock of the newspapers that publish them.

Unnecessary Worrying

2007-12-01T16:04:00.000-08:00

The first few months of After Barry seem to be going as well as anyone could have expected. Brian Sabean appears to have woken up from his nearly decade long infatuation with over priced veterans at every position. In a well publicized conference call he came out and said that the team has to be ready to take chances with unproven young players in starting positions.

The newest rumor is that fallen prospect Andy Marte of the Indians is on the radar. Whether or not he will someday be a star isn't really the point. The key is that he is the type of player the team has to look at. Nine Andy Marte's could produce one Carlos Pena. That would go a long way over the next five years to making a competitive offense to go with Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and the rest of the staff.

This isn't new stuff. But in looking at the Marte rumor I saw what the Giants have that matches up well with the Indians is relief pitching. They know Joe Borowski isn't a real closer. If he implodes that moves Rafeal Betancourt out of the eighth and the team wants a player ready to step in to that role.

The Giants have a glut of relievers that are sitting just below that level, but Marte may be so far in the dog house it doesn't matter. I started looking first at Brad Hennessey, because 19 shinny saves can go a long way in creating an overvalued player.

But is Hennessey the new Joe Nathan? Both players began as starters, performed around average and then pitched somewhat better as relievers. Nathan had an ERA+ of 142 in 2003, compared to 130 for Hennessey this year. Hennessey's K/BB wasn't as impressive, but if you match the two up by age they follow a similar path (Especially age's 24 and 25 when both were starters). Nathan's 2003 was his age 29 season, 2007 was Hennessey's 27.

What kills the comparison is the huge jump in K/9 Nathan had in 2003, to over a K per inning. Hennessey isn't anywhere near that and probably wont be. But as I said Nathan was two years older than Hennessey, so we'll see how he progresses. But in an offseason where it seems like most people will be happy as long as Cain and Lincecum stay put, that there're are plenty of ways to lose talent for nothing. Taking a flyer on Marte is great, but that's no reason to just throw players off the bus.

The Giles brothers play naked robber

2007-10-01T17:58:00.000-07:00

I’d like to say the lake of updates over the last few months – missing Bonds breaking Aaron’s record, the Matt Morris trade and other Giants related, um … news – was some sort of symbolic protest against the abortion that was the 2007 San Francisco Giants.

Unfortunately the real reason was a combination of a change in lifestyle (my fiancé moved in with me), the consequences of that change (planning a wedding) and the release of OOTP 2007. I’m not proud of that last one, put if there was any year I needed fake baseball, this was it.

Mercifully the regular season ended, at least for the Giants. Right now I’m watching the Rockies play the Padres in ONLY THE SEVENTH TIEBREAKER GAME IN HISTORY!!11!!!11!!! (thanks TBS announcers).

I am firmly in the Rockies camp. I have a hatred for the Padres that rivals that for the Dodgers. Even when they were bad they always seemed to play just well enough to steal one from the Giants when they needed it most. And the Giles brothers creep me out.

The Rockies are the middle child of the NL West. They don’t have the history of the Giants or Dodgers – Hell, even the Padres – and don’t have the success of the Diamond backs, the baby of the division people just love to heap praise on.

What has really brought me over to them is that this is the most wins this franchise has ever seen and it would be heart breaking for me to know that the most successful season in their history would go for not. I even picked the Padres at the beginning of the season as my NL representative in the World Series, but I would give that up to see the Rockies lose in three games to the Cubs.

My picks:

NL
Padres over Cubs
Phillies over Diamond backs

Padres over Phillies

AL
Red Sox over Indians
Yankees over Angels

Yankees over Red Sox

World Series
Yankees over Padres (Yawn and a tear)

Cain-related pun with the word 'close'

2007-07-28T12:24:00.000-07:00

Running a baseball team is hard. People seem to forget this sometimes. There are 25 players on the major league roster, plus the 40-man which must be meticulously managed as well as hundreds of minor league players scattered around the country. The available pool of talent is more or less every baseball player in the world. And all of this is done on a restricted budget and in competition with 29 other teams, many of which have much more money.

And like almost anything in life one move can have lasting impacts on others. Brian Sabean liked to say during the Vlad Guerrero chase that signing him would have kept five role players off the roster. Signing Barry Zito to The Albatross will have lasting effects for the next seven years. Good lord, seven years. Let’s move on, shall we?

So as the market for Matt Morris has dried and crumbled, it seems from the various rumor mongers on the tubes that attention has redoubled on Noah Lowry. He’s young, cheap and relatively effective, especially compared to the other pitchers available right now. So while it may be enticing to start speculating what bounty of young position players could be pried away for young Noah, no move is made in a vacuum.

Henry Schulman repeated a rumor that’s been sent around recently that the organization is looking into turning Matt Cain into a closer next year to help him regain his control, cut down on his innings (Cain currently ranks eighth in the majors in abuse points, right behind Zito) and supposedly help is confidence after the disastrous run support of this season.

The common wisdom is that pitchers are more valuable as starters. They throw more innings, get more outs. What’s there to debate? But since Jonathan Papelbon it seems everyone wants to convert every other young starter into a closer. Looking at John Smotlz, someone who has spent prime years and succeeded at both roles, its obvious you can be value from both spots. Looking at his final two years as a closer (03-04) and his last two complete seasons, Smoltz had 117 PARA as a closer and 169 as a starter. His WARP1 totals were 12.8 and 15.7. So yes, even someone who acted as one of the best closers in the game had more value as a starter, though a 7.3WARP1 season out of the bullpen (Smoltz’s 2003) is not too bad either.

But that means someone needs to replace Cain in the rotation. If Lowry is traded that means in 2008 the Giants have Zito, Morris, Tim Lincecum, possibly the corpse of Russ Ortiz and a converted Jonathan Sanchez. Would the team really be that much better off getting 150 innings from whoever fill the cagey veteran fifth starter slot for Ortiz or letting Brad Hennesey or Randy Messenger close and have Cain in the rotation?

Really, if they’re worried about Cain’s workload (and they should be), monitor his pitch counts more and skip a start occasionally, such as they did last season. Cain is young, younger than Lincecum. This season hasn’t been good for any of the Giants and the organization probably just needs to hit the reset button at the end of the year. Bring everyone back in spring training and see how everyone has recovered. Sure, discus turning Cain into a closer. Options are fun. But let starting be the goal.

It's wrong. WRONG.

2007-07-26T23:18:00.000-07:00

A coworker recently asked me what it's like for my favorite team to be a sideshow. I told him I've been a Raiders fan for a long time so I'm used to it.

Overall the attention given to the Barry Bonds home run chase hasn't bothered me too much. really, on any given night who else on this team deserves any attention. On numerous occasions I've read the line (or something similar): 'I can't wait until the Giants go back to being like any other last place team.' But for the most part I'm OK with it because I've been expecting it, prepared for it and now that it's here I'm ready for it. Yes, one player has taken over my favorite team but he is also the best player on that team and has done more to help this franchise win than any player since his godfather.

But then there are times such as tonight when I can't take it. Tim Lincnecum threw another decent start, six innings only two runs and two walks. While checking the boxscore on ESPN I saw the highlight video available so I clicked on it. I got to see Bonds popout and hit a double. No Lincecum, no Dave Roberts RBI. Just two almost meaningless at bats from a player who went 1-4. No one else on either team in the entire game deserved 10 seconds of time?

So tonight I'm ready for this whole thing to be over. I have nothing against Bonds really. I'm off the opinion that he wasn't the only one taking steroids if he did. If he's facing pitchers and opposing hitters juiced up then his records aren't out of context in his era and shouldn't be asterisked. I'd really rather players didn't do steroids, because of the effects on their health not the record book or so called sanctity of the game, but I don't think they were really cheating if it was an option freely available to all and not banned by the league. But this whole thing is making it harder for me to see Tim Lincecum highlights and that's just wrong. It's wrong.

You can jump now or jump later

2007-07-24T23:50:00.000-07:00

I wanted to address this Ken Rosenthal tidbit real quick:

The Giants have expressed past interest in Sexson, who is owed the balance of his $14 million salary this season and $14 million next season.
The two teams apparently are not talking, but a Sexson-for-Matt Morris trade would make sense. Morris, also signed through next season, has struggled of late. Then again, Sexson is batting just .204.

Before I get into whether the Giants should do this I wanted to look at whether Sexson is even worth considering before putting him up against Morris. He’s had a terrible season so far but I’ve been surprised just how high the cliff he fell off of was, so I wanted to see if this is something we can expect him to rebound from.

First I went to Baseball Reference and neutralized his stats to get a quick and dirty idea of how unlucky he’s been (Do this for Matt Cain. It’s fun.). No luck. His line raises, but only to .203/.305/.406. Still crap.

So I went to FanGraphs. The big difference looks like Sexson has replaced a lot of line drives with groundballs, driving his BABIP to a staggering low .211. This isn’t all him being a terrible hitter, though that helps. For proof, Nick Punto, of the .218 average, has a .260 BABIP. Sexson is also hitting fewer home runs per flyball taking his ISO down to .203 from .240 last season. Those numbers have been on a steady decline since about 2004. One positive is that he is walking more and striking out less this season, for what it’s worth.

So is he worth it? As Rosenthal points out, Sexson and Morris are each making about the same next year so money is a wash. I hate to say it but having a big power hitter regress to the mean in a Giants uniform doesn’t sound that bad. Losing Morris would kill some space in the rotation and force someone such as Russ Ortiz up a little soon, but what the Hell.

But then I remembered this USS Mariner post from the off-season. Remember, this was written before the collapse. So yes, Sexson is on the decline.

Of course, Morris’ strikeouts rates have been on the decline since 2001 so who are we to quibble? And that’s the real point. I’ve spent this whole time arguing who is a better bet for the next season and a half, Richie Sexson or Matt Morris. Both are aging, declining and overpaid. Yet one of these two may be the best option for the Giantsin a deal this month. Is it 2010 yet?

Cast away me boys

2007-07-19T11:25:00.000-07:00

We’re going notes style today because, well … because I’m lazy. Take that.

Jonathan Sanchez and Russ Ortiz are imminent. Sanchez will be up today with Ortiz following soon after. That means two relievers are taking the long trip to Fresno as Bochy said that Sanchez isn’t ready to spend time in Fresno to be converted to a starter just yet. Apparently Pat Misch had two long innings because the team wanted to give him some time before a demotion and Lefty suggests we send down Jack Taschner for the other spot.

Wednesday I started thinking about how much Boston wants to be rid of Wily Mo Pena and wondered in my head whether they would take someone such as Steve Kline just to be rid of him and clear room for a different trade. Seemed like a good idea. The Giants need to get young power hitters and get rid of old everybody. Perfect match. But Pena isn’t an ideal player. Tell me, which of these two career lines belongs to Pena and which belongs to Pedro Feliz?

Player A .251 .287 .434
Player B .256 .311 .468

If you’re a Giants fan you’ll probably guess Pena is the one with a slight lead in each category, which is correct. But still. Not so good. Of course Pena is seven years younger than Pete Happy and has had plenty of potential-establishing seasons, including his .301/.349/.489 line in 276 AB in 2006. His BABIP was over .400 that season but he does have a .339 career mark in that category. Basically he’s not the perfect player for the Giants but at this point they aren’t in a position to gripe. It’s going to take chances on guys like Pena to try and fins the next Jack Cust or Carlos Pena, who can give the team cheap power to supplement whatever hopefully comes up through the farm system.

Well apparently I was just a little off in my speculating as both Boston papers said today that Pena is indeed a marked man, but that the team wants a right handed hitting outfielder how can play center. Where could they find one of those?

And to prove I’m not insane, not only does the Herald mention Roberts and Winn by name today, but Chris over at Bay City Ball notes the same thing. Two Giants bloggers named Chris citing the same article on the same day? Let’s hope it’s a happy coincidence.

Just for old time’s sack I wanted to acknowledge all of the Salomon Torres trade rumors that have been flying around. This game is still one of my favorite as a Giants fan so Torres will always have a special place in my memory. Right now Torres is being linked to, who else, the Red Sox.

I also wanted to link to this article at The Hardball Times (even if it's written by a Padres fan), going over the top young talent in the NL West. Cain, Sanchez and Lincecum are all mentioned and itseems to be somewhat optimistic predictions for what it's worth.

Last and probably least, I’ve been listening to the new Against Me! Album, New Wave, since it came out last week. It’s still a good record, I love American’s Abroad and The Ocean, but seems to have more 70s and 80s style pop riffs embedded in the music. Still better than most of the music I listen to, but not the best the band has done.

Someday we'll all look back on this and laugh

2007-07-16T23:37:00.000-07:00

At this point in the season I feel like when I think back to the 2007 season I’ll remember:

The beginning of the Lincecum era
Bonds’ chase
Losing 3-2 games

That’s why Monday’s 3-2 loss to the Cubs just seemed so perfect. It was the Giants great 12-year-old hope getting a no-decision in a close loss. If only Barry had hit a home run in the first it would have been the most memorable game of the season.

Tim Lincecum did well but his five walks were not a good sign. They didn’t hurt him too much but there’s no reason to do it just because you can.

More Trade Stuff

Figured I‘d just tack this on instead of making a new post.

As the Merc pointed out earlier the Mariners are interested in Matt Morris, at least enough to send a scout, but apparently so are the Braves, if the rumors hold. I know Balentien and Salty are way too much to ask for Morris but I’ll take anything the Braves or Mariners have to offer.

Something else that has been pointed out before but is now being talked about again by the Great Ken Rosenthal. Prospects are now way overvalued. It makes me wonder if maybe trading someone such as Jonathan Sanchez might not be such a bad idea. Rebuilding is all about ending up with more than you started with, normally through the draft and trading veterans for multiple prospects. But if the Giants can increase their overall talent and tradeable assets by giving up a youngster maybe they should, especially is the reward is (semi)young hitting.

Matt Morris really wants to stay in San Francisco

2007-07-15T11:54:00.000-07:00

So after the Giants come back from a 6-0 deficit against the Dodgers, including a grand slam from a gimpy Randy Winn, go through 12 innings, use all but one player on the roster and lose 8-7, my only thought this morning was this:

They can never trade Matt Morris now.

The old man who had so much magic early in the season is showing his true colors the last month or so. We knew during his 2.50 ERA May that he wasn’t that good. This is the man who threw the fifth-lowest amount of pitches over 80 mph last season and hasn’t struck out at least six batters per nine since 2003. Even looking at his month-by-month splits, he had a 1.58 whip in five April starts, almost as bad as his 1.64 in two July starts.

Following his June 11 start against the Blue Jays, a complete game win where he gave up three runs, Morris was positioning himself as one of the top available starters for July if the Giants remained out of it. All he needed to do was to not blow up down the stretch and it seemed as if the Giants would have something to negotiate with.

But as one month of outstanding performance can make a mediocre veteran seem like the last piece a contender needs to get into the playoffs, so can one mistimed week destroy it. In his last five starts Morris has given up six or more runs three times. He gave up more than three once in his previous 13 to start the season. His ERA has gone from 2.56 after the Blue Jays game to 3.86 after his six-run fifth on Saturday.

Morris still had interest from some teams even on Saturday. Andrew Baggarly in the Merc reported that a Mariners scout was in attendance, who we can only hope lost the notes from the game on the way back to Washington. And this lovely message was on Morris’ Rotoworld page today:

… his trade value should be mostly gone. He's not someone any contender should feel confident about starting in October.

At this point it seems the Giants will get nothing for Morris they can use unless they are desperately short on baseball and things to carry them in.

It's putting the I and F so close together that scares me

2007-07-14T09:26:00.000-07:00

Friday the Giants officially announced Brian Sabean’s two-year extension.

Considering I just put down my thoughts on Sabean I’ll keep this brief. But there was one thing that popped up here and here specifically that I wanted to address. From Henry Schulman’s article:

"The hope is we can surprise ourselves with what I think the team could be, led by (our) young pitching staff," Magowan said, "but if in fact we need to develop patience so that we're in a better chance to win and sustain winning in a couple of years or so, we're prepared to do that.

Developing patience and growing a farm system is not an if. It is the smart way to run a baseball team. Having home grown players allows you to move in cheap options who most likely will sign for less than they would get on the open market if you choose to keep them. Look at the deal Travis Hafner got recently. You want to develop players like that yourself because buying them on the open market is nearly impossible to do for nine-spots in the lineup.

Having a roster full of guys making the minimum or below market value allows you to go out and sign guys like, forgive the comparison but I think it fits, Vladimir Guerrero. Right now the Angels have five starters who were either drafted by the team or have never played major league ball for any other club. That has allowed them to go out and get guys like Guerrero, Orlando Cabrera and Gary Matthews (even if they should have passed on that last one). Minimum guys give you flexibility to enhance a contender when the time comes.

A deep farm system keeps you from having to spend millions on average players to fill bench spots. It gives you trading chips if necessary. There are other ways to win, but if the Giants truly want to create a new wave, as Sabean puts it, a sustainable stretch of winning, then that is how it’s done. Look at the Braves. Six of their eight position starters were drafted or came up through the club’s minor league system. Same goes for three of the five starting pitchers. The team occasionally adds a Gary Sheffield or J.D. Drew, but relies mainly on the players they can develop on their own.

So while the press conference talk is nice, I don’t buy it yet. I want to see who Matt Morris is playing for in August and how the roster in San Jose and Connecticut looks before I get comfortable with Sabean Redux.

The man in charge

2007-07-12T23:28:00.000-07:00

The Giants begin the second half Friday but the games aren’t really the focus from now on. Sure, at bats will be checked for Barry Bonds home runs and to figure out which youngsters can hack it for next season. But from now on this is Brian Sabean’s season.

The second half starts amid rumors of his impending extension, to which I’m moving between slight nausea and a deep depression that I will never seen a champion at May’s Field in my lifetime. Sabean hasn’t done much in the last five years at least to prove he knows how the game, both on the field and in the GM’s office, is played anymore. Not to say the game has changed significantly in that time frame, but he seems less and less able to learn from what has happened and execute a plan.

Through the rest of this month at least he has the ability to try and change that. I’m sure the team could win its next 10 (sure meaning possible in the coin-flip sense) and make it to .500. San Diego and Los Angeles don’t play each other out of the break so they could both lose their first 10 and the Giants could be right back in this. But if the whole NL West doesn’t meet in the middle over the next two weeks the Giants are sellers at the deadline.

With Matt Morris and Ray Durham on the block the team can’t get much back but Sabean can prove he has a plan and try and execute it. It’s pretty much accepted the team has to move to rebuild the farm system and develop young hitters. Morris and Durham, even Jonathan Sanchez, aren’t going to get Adm Jones from Seattle are anything like that but moving guys such as that will show that Sabean knows this team isn’t built to contend. Even though he’s around hitting milestone homeruns every couple of weeks, the window to win a championship has passed. Basically all I’m looking for from Sabean is an acknowledgment of that fact.

There have been rumblings that Peter Magowan and the rest of the Giants management have been hampering Sabean (see link above), including hoisting the Barry Zito contract on him, which is infinitely more frightening. As any Raiders fan can tell you, having crazy people in ownership can kill any franchise. If Magowan is the problem there is no one to fire him and no hope beyond praying he comes to his senses and gets out of the way. If all he wants is to contend enough to keep revenue up there’s nothing a fan can do besides abandoning the team, which very few want to do.

Some have said one of Sabean’s conditions for the extension is more autonomy. If he stays I hope he gets it. But right now I want to see him take steps to fix the mess that was created, whoever made it. I’ll take a symbolic Morris for B-level prospect, something that shows he’s looking to what he can do and not what has happened.

A thing of beauty

2007-07-03T19:35:00.000-07:00

As much as today's 7-3 loss to the Reds could be about Barry Bonds and his 751st home run, I was left with nothing but thoughts of Barry Zito.

As a former Bay Area resident and the fiance of an A's fan I had plenty of knowledge of Zito before he came over to the Giants this winter. My top three things:

That curveball
That guitar
At any moment he could collapse in on himself like a dying star

To me Zito was a good pitcher who got caught in a lot of disastrously bad innings. Seven run innings. He had a ton of starts, at least for a higher rotation starter, that ended after two or three innings with more than five runs given up.

But having him on the Giants has taught me more about his ability to fall apart and almost appreciate them in a coffee-house interpretive dance sort of way.

Tonight he had a no-hitter through four innings but gave up two runs. Twice -- TWICE! -- in a row he walked a batter with the bases loaded. That raises his career total to 13, not including three HBP. Tonight Zito got through five innings but had to come out becuase he threw 113 pitches.

I think in course of a season the Giants are better to have Zito than a AAA scrub. Obviously the team expects more with the money they're paying him, but through 162 games he does have the ability to dominate occasionally, so let's not get into the Through him off the Team discussion. That scenario's not coming up any time soon. The key to living with a pitcher like Zito on your team is just to take some comedy out of performances like this. If the bullpen had picked him up and the Giants had and offense that was not the Giants offense, he could have gotten away with a no decision.

Zito's just a horribly expensive piece of the puzzle to what will hopefully be a decent team in three to four years with Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.

The good, the bad and Livermore

2007-07-01T22:03:00.000-07:00

I recently talked a little bit about of unlucky Matt Cain has been this season, going 2-9 with a 3.38 ERA so far. But Cain hasn’t been the only Giants pitcher with luck issues, both good and bad.

Tim Lincecum

The Enchanter’s fantastic performance today seems to have put off those discussions of him skipping a start. Three hits, 12 strikeouts and no walks in seven innings will do that. But while Lincecum’s previous skid got a lot of attention no all of it was the rookie’s fault.

Coming into Sunday, Linceum’s FIP of 3.77 was 1.42 lower than his ERA of 5.19. That would rank him first in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. That doesn’t say Linceum isn’t to blame. Sunday broke a streak of four straight games with at least four walks, including the rebound game against San Diego of Monday. But though Lincecum hadn’t been flawless, the Giants defense wasn’t helping the rookie out at all.

Noah Lowry

Lowry has had a bit of actual luck this season. The lefty is sort of the opposite of Lincecum, picking up a lot from the Giants in the field. This season Lowry has an ERA of 3.46, nearly a full run better than his FIP of 4.34. Lowry has had a slight dip in his BAPIP and home runs per game, with his home runs per fly ball down almost 4 percent from last season. It seems Lowry may grow into his FIP if those numbers fall back to where they’ve been.

Matt Morris

MattyMo has been the Anti-Cain this season, getting great results out of less than stellar stuff. His strikeout rate has continued to decline, and so far he’s actually been walking more batter than normal (2.83 in 2007 to 2.53 career). What’s so interesting is that his BABIP has remained almost constant along with his peripherals, right around .300. Even his batted ball rates are similar. Looking through his FanGraphs page it’s hard to tell, with my limited statistical knowledge, what the Hell is different. His home run per flyball rate is about half of last year, but I’m not sure if that’s enough. Hey, his FIP is 3.60, so maybe it isn’t all luck.

Barry Zito

No luck here. The $1 Billion Man is getting exactly what he deserves. And so if Giants management. Fans, no so much. Seven years is a very long time, and aging hippies are so sad.

Now non of these are end alls on luck. All of these pitchers have earned their stats to some extent, so to say someone is all good or bad luck is missing the point. It’s just interesting how pitchers on the same staff can have such different outcomes based on their peripherals.

This is what he gets for disturbing that mummy

2007-06-28T12:20:00.000-07:00

So through seven innings Wednesday Greg Maddux and Matt Cain had nearly
identical lines. Maddux had given up one run on a home run with one
walk in 94 pitches. Cain had given up one run on one home run in 95
pitches. The only difference was Cain had six strikeouts to Maddux's four.

One inning, two hits and a walk latter Maddux was out of the game but
it was Cain who was feeling the pain. Maddux was lifted for a reliever
while Cain was left in for the eighth and gave up a double, a single and
a walk before getting pulled, eventually getting tagged with two
additional unearned runs.

At what point does Cain start catching some breaks, because this is just
getting crazy. Pitching into the eighth and giving up only two runs by
the time you leave should be better than just another loss, especially
one that leaves a pitcher 2-9. In nine of his 16 games Cain has allowed
two or fewer earned runs and two of those he got a win. Eschewing the
vagaries of the win stat, those were also the only games the Giants
have won with Cain on the mound.

And it's more than just poor run support. Barry Zito, Cain and Noah
Lowry all rank between 99 and 107 in run support with between 4.05 and
3.71 runs per game. Zito is 6-8 and Lowry is 7-6.

This isn't a new subject. David Pinto brought it up in his Games
of the Day post yesterday. But after another incredibly tough loss
I'm just amazed that it keeps going. I'm not a big math guy but doesn't
that whole law of averages thing kick in eventually?

Just hook it to my veins

2007-06-23T17:33:00.001-07:00

It ends on a flair and nobody cares.

Those were Kuiper's words seconds after the Giants outlasted the Yankees 6-5 in 13 innings today.

As painful as this season is and will be, that was fun. That was why we're all fans. Really, as much as I complain and say I'll never watch or pay attention until things change, it's all a lie. I'm hooked. The excitement of holding your breath as you hear the call over the radio, waiting to find out if it fell and Kelsko will make it home, that's really all it takes.

Stupid baseball.

Abuse me

2007-06-23T11:29:00.000-07:00

Friday found the Giants losing yet again, this time to the New York Yankees. Yes, Barry Bonds hit yet another home run, but for me that means very little while watching the team play so poorly.

So my thoughts have been drifting off to next season and the years to follow. While there seems to be no immediate help coming to fix the team’s biggest need, offense, the Giant’s young rotation of Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Noah Lowry (plus the ever present specter of Barry Zito) seems to point to a at least a semi-above average staff.

But is Bruce Bochy keeping the staff ready for next year? I checked out Baseball Prospectus’ abuse points leader boards to see if we can expect anything terrifying in the future from this core of pitchers. And I wasn’t happy.

First off, I would be much less happy if I was a Red Sox fan. So far Dice-K leads the majors in Stress at 45. In his 2004 article outlining BP’s changes to PAP, Keith Woolner estimated that anyone with over 30 had a 20 percent chance of a major arm injury sometime in their career.

Now the Giants don’t have any major cases such as Dice-K. What they do have is a consistent pattern of pushing their starters to their limit, putting five pitchers (Zito, Cain, Morris, Lowry and Russ Ortiz) into the top 16 of Stress and PAP per start. Only one team -- Cincinnati, With Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang – had more than one. Even throwing out Ortiz with only five starts, having 4/5 of a rotation that high in PAP rankings seems like a warning.

One thing I wanted to put out there right now is that the pitchers don’t astronomic Stress numbers. Between Lowry at 14 and Jeff Francis at 31 there’s only a four-point drop. The chart below shows the range of Stress points for the five Giants pitchers in the top 15.

NAME	GS	TOT_NP	AVG_PAP	STRESS
Barry Zito	15	1568	2868.8	27
Matt Morris	14	1416	2183.07	22
Matt Cain	15	1597	2239.33	21
Russ Ortiz	5	481	1852.2	19
Noah Lowry	14	1438	1412.36	14

But like I’ve said, what concerns me is the systematic over-use of pitchers, even if it is only by a small amount. Especially with younger arms such as Cain and Lowry I would hate to see high workloads in a season such as this ruin the team’s rebuilding plan (if such a thing exists).

One other thing I wanted to point out is Bochy’s willingness to send his starters deep into games. BP splits starts up into five categories, with CAT_1 under 100 pitches and Cat_5 starting at 133, with breaks roughly every 10 pitches between. So far there have been no CAT_5 starts this season, but there have been 26 CAT_4 (122-132 pitches) starts, with the total split amongst 18 pitchers. Four of them have been Giants. Only two other teams, the Reds and Mets, have even two.

With six total starts the Giants account for almost a quarter (23 percent) of CAT_4 starts. Barry Zito has been the culprit in three of those starts, not a good sign for the player the team just gave a 347 year contract for $Umpteeneleventee million. What’s even worse, at least from a strategy point of view, is that his three CAT_4 starts haven’t even been that great. The classic example of an OK use of 120 pitches is the player finishing off a complete game. Zito’s starts haven’t lasted longer than 7.1 innings, though he has been effective, giving up only two runs in the three starts. But seriously, 122 pitches in 7.1 innings?

Before I leave this, I wanted to point out that this is only half a season’s worth of data and may be colored by Bochy’s feelings about turning over close games to his bullpen. But even with that, the thing that scares me the most is that of the top 10 players in Stress, Cain is the youngest by almost two years. It will be interesting to see if this changes by the end of the year with the team out of contention, but right now I’m a little concerned.

Summer of my discontent

2007-06-21T21:08:00.000-07:00

One of my favorite things about baseball is how much is going on that can't be immediately seen. Who watching a game in person would think that a walk could be one of the keys to a productive offense (well, that and the three-run homer)?

Digging through statistics and trying to find why John Maine had such a great start or what events best predict how a team will score runs in the future is exciting to me. I like trying to understand why certain events have happened and what that means for upcoming games. And that's one of the reasons this season is so painful as a Giants fan.

When the team kept crossing the .500 mark last year I could dig through the stats pages (no game watching in Eugene, Ore.) and read the articles and figure out who was doing better or worse and why, what the team had to improve on to get better and whether that was something I could expect.

This year that is lost. It's pretty simple. The team is bad. Nothing I find at BaseballProspectus is going to change that fact or suggest anything different. Whether it's Zito's HR/FB or Rich Aurila's WARP3, every marker is pointing strongly to suck. Most of it is in the batters box. In the Holy trinity the Giants rank 14th/14th/13th, combining to rank 15th in runs scored.

And that has pretty much cancelled out what has been pretty decent pitching. While it has been depressing watching Zito and Lincecum losing their last two starts while pitching poorly, it's been even more depressing watching Matt Cain lose 2-0 and 1-0.

Today I saw a comparison to the Washington Nationals, which suddenly makes me contemplate 100 losses. Right now the team's .423 winning percentage is on-pace for 68 wins, only six losses away from triple digits so it seems a possibility.

That's the bad news. The good news? Probably that I'm a little cranky after a seven-game losing streak, which I can only assume is making me look at things through ick-colored glasses.

But I'm not ready to think too much about the team starting a fire sale. My main reason is that I've been looking forward to it for too long, and I'm paranoid that if I start believing it will happen it will once again be put off. But I hope it comes and comes this season. I'm ready to give Sabean once last chance to save himself and prove he is really one of the premier GMs in baseball. But I don't expect anything to happen until we get into July.

The Ugly

2007-06-05T12:53:00.000-07:00

I haven’t been keeping up on the standings in the NL West as much as I should recently. I’ve been watching and reading about the Giants games, following their steady decline below the .500 mark and losing more and more interest in how far ahead the Dodgers and Padres are. So I was a little surprised to see just how well the Diamondbacks have been playing recently when I was checking up on them with the series starting tonight.

I started looking through their Yahoo page to get the basics: leaders in batting average, ERA, etc. Absent was Randy Johnson, mainly because after missing most of April he doesn’t qualify for the ERA title yet. But over the last month or so he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball.

His first start on April 24 against the Padres was a mini-disaster. The Unit gave up six runs in five IP, including two home runs and four walks. But since then he’s given up five runs only once, striking out at least nine in three straight games.

For all pitchers with at least six starts since April 25 (taking out his Padres breakdown), Johnson is second in K/9 with 11.29, with only Jake Peavy ahead. But what’s remarkable has been his walk numbers. Johnson is also second in that period with .74 BB/9. He’s given up exactly three walks in 36.2 innings in that stretch. So that’s a K/BB of over 15. Frightening. That’s downright Lincecum-esque.

But I’m still out on the Diamondbacks’ chances the rest of the season. Before the season I was ready for them to take off and start challenging the top of the division, but maybe fall a bit short. So far their young hitters haven’t really broken out, leaving Eric Byrnes as one their top producers. Anytime that happens something isn’t going right. But there is so much potential oozing from Arizona you can never say it’s a fluke.

The Void

2007-06-01T23:55:00.000-07:00

The Mando Move yesterday is a clear signal that things are not going well in Giant land and the fans aren't the only ones that think so. But Brian Sabean made a good, if obvious point yesterday in his response to the criticism about Mando: It's not all his fault. He's not the reason the team has the second worst run differential in the NL West (thank you Colorado!) and is hoping to climb back to .500.

But after looking solely to Mando for so long, who are we to blame now? Pedro has had his turn and frankly doesn't really interest me. Omar is hitting terribly but is also Omar, Dreamy Fielder of Wonder, and really too nice to have to worry about anything but how awesomely great he is. Same for Rich Aurila, without the DFoW part.

Really, beyond Barry's chase of the Record That Shall Not Be Named, what is there to keep us interested in the Giants besides the deep rooted psychosis our parents passed down to us and/or the curse brought upon us by that terrible night at the lake? The team is filled with mediocre or super-mediocre players in the later-part of their careers desperately trying to be just slightly above average. Beyond the Barry's the only players with a hint of excitement are Lincecum and Cain.

It might be too early to give up on the 2007 Giants, but even though they're only 5.5 out on June 1st, there isn't much to look forward to. The team has the third-worst OBP in the NL (.313), only .001 away from a three-way tie for last. Pedro Feliz is leading the team in extra-base hits. The Linden Experiment is over and all we can hope for is that names like Lowry and Sanzhez aren't stitched on Mariners jerseys in August.

So Lincecum and Cain are going to have to be it. With Mando taking my villain away it's time to focus on the heroes and there isn't anyone else in sight. Until Vilalona, anyway.

The End of a Bloated ERA

2007-05-31T22:05:00.000-07:00

Armando Benitez has been moved to greener pastures. Or at least out to pasture. Wherever he is, it is not San Francisco. The large-one, Mando to his friends, is once again a Florida Marlin.

This should be great for Mando. In Miami he will be free to play without worrying about whether or not anyone is watching and never have to save any meaningful games (not that he would have with the Giants either, but the joke stands. Rim shot anyone?)

And the Giants get to add another mediocre reliever in the person of Randy Messenger while still paying Mando the majority of his $7.6 million contract. Win Win Win.

Looking at Messenger's minor league stats, he really needs to be his control under, um, control. His career minor league BB/9 is 3.65, and his major league rate is 4.69. Plus, he also doesn't strike out a ton of guys and gives up his share of home runs (well, historically. He has yet to give one up in 23.2 innings this season). Here's what Rotoworld said of his chances in the Giants' Bullpen:
His quality fastball-slider combination has allowed him to survive as a middle man, but he doesn't have the command to handle late-inning duties.

So, my questions are: Was Mando really that bad that the Giants needed to trade him for a lower-tier reliever and still pay his salary? Was the situation so terrible they couldn't wait to see if he could play his way into a better trade? Was it so terrible they couldn't wait until the deadline when the market would supposedly be better for someone like Mando?

I don't know what Brian Sabean has been hearing around the league or if Messenger was the Marlins best offer over letting Sabean look at their World Series trophies for 15 minutes apiece. But from here it looks like a forced move that won't improve the team now or in the future, and could actually turn out to be a negative if Mando turns things around in Florida and Messenger doesn't improve. Like any trade it will take time to see who got the better of who. Middle relievers step up all the time and do weird things like, I don't know, be productive. But if nothing else I don't like the spirit the trade was done in.

I hated watching Benitez come in. Every time he threw I was expecting failure, which didn't make it hurt any less when it came. The Met game was absolutely unacceptable for a major league closer. All that said, if this was the best Sabean could do I wonder if it really needed to happen now.

The Great Zito

2007-05-09T12:46:00.000-07:00

I am never one to leave well enough alone. I'm a Giants fan. I love to poke holes in any and all points of light surrounding my team. Today I've decided to make myself feel worse about Barry Zito's early success.

This started as an examination into today's starting pitcher for the Mets, John Maine. So far the 26-year-old has a sub 2.00 ERA and looks like one of the better pitchers in the majors. But a close look at his stats shows a .220 BABIP, which suggests young Maine will soon be back up towards his expected ERA of around 3.30.

That got me thinking about which Giants starters are playing over their head. Matt Morris was too obvious, so I moved on to Zito.

The fact that Zito, whose walk and strikeout numbers have been moving in the wrong direction the last few seasons, is pitching better than expected isn't all that shocking. But I wanted to find out exactly what was different and what we could expect to change.

A quick check at Fangraphs showed one graph that was way out of whack: Home runs. Zito has given up only one home run this season, a rate of 0.20 HR/9, where Zito's lifetime average is 0.91. What's more is that his HR/FB rate is 2.1 percent, compared to a lifetime average of 8.4 percent.

HR/FB rates normally hover around 11 percent. The last two seasons Zito's been at 9 and 10.4 percent. Batters have hit 47 flyballs off Zito this year. A straight up 10 percent would give him four home runs expected if you round down. Just those three extra runs would raise his ERA from 3.65 to 4.28, and that's without trying to guess how many runners would have been on base.

One could argue that moving to pitcher-friendly Pac Bell/ATT/Mays Field has lowered his expected home run rate, but the two parks have played pretty close recently. Last season Mays Field was last and the Coliseum 24th, while in 2005 they were 17th and 19th respectively, according to ESPN. And while five of Zito's seven starts have been at home, his only home run was in San Francisco.

What's interesting is that since home runs are a three-true-outcomes result, his luck isn't represented in his FIP ERA, which is lower than his actual ERA. But his xFIP at the Hardball Times is 4.24, almost exactly what his home run rate would predict. So while Zito looked sharp against the Mets -- a well placed curve ball like Zito's may be my favorite thing in baseball -- we can expect a few more of those fly balls to hit the seats. We can only hope that wont derail him too much.

Cats and Dogs. Living Together.

2007-05-03T17:44:00.000-07:00

AAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

2007-05-02T10:45:00.000-07:00

With all of the excitement in the Bay Area sports world recently -- the Warriors and Sharks in the playoffs, the Raiders with the first pick in the NFL draft -- let me begin the discussions with something of very little importance to the San Francisco Giants.

From Chris Haft's notebook at MLB.com Monday:
Although Lincecum relieved in college at the University of Washington, his bullpen experience was limited. He wouldn't have the mental or physical frame of reference to draw upon, so to speak, that Papelbon could as a guy who closed last season. Converting Lincecum to the bullpen would be a risky move to make with such a valuable young arm.

I don't put much into the whole "Closer's Mentality" idea, though I concede if someone has a nervous breakdown on the mound it could affect his control. But what bothered me about this is that Haft says Papelbon will be a good closer this year because he has the experience from last season. But last season he had 35 saves with a .92 ERA. How was he able to do that?

The correct answer is that Papelbon was a closer in college. In 2003 at Miss. St. Papelbon threw 47.1 innings, all relief, striking out more than a batter an inning. His first season in the minors half of his appearances were in relief. But Haft never mentions this. It's not a big deal, but it took me 20 seconds to look up and would have added more strength to his argument.

On the issue in general I think Lincecum needs to stay a starter for the time being. Last season the Red Sox felt the were a legitimate World Series contender which had a glaring weakness at the end of their bullpen. With a stacked rotation they let a potential starter close. No big deal. But the Giants aren't one piece away from being a contender. I think Lincecum needs to be in the majors soon, but at the expense of a trade of Matt Morris, Matt Morris or Armando Benitez (with Ortiz moving to the bullpen). There's no reason to mess with his arm in order to get that elusive 82nd win.

The Raiders went out and did what everyone has expected since LSU trounced Notre Dame and picked JaMarcus Russell. I have no idea whether or not JMR will be the quarterback everyone dreams off, but this was a move the Raiders needed to make. Knowing it will take two to three years for JMR to develop shows the team is ready to rebuild. With Lane Kiffin probably needing two to three years to figure what he's doing, Josh McKown can work out the kinks in the system while JMR sits by and watches.

I also really liked the pick up of Mike Williams in the McKown deal. Money means nothing in the NFL, so picking up someone with first-round talent is always worth the gamble. If he doesn't pan out no big deal. But the upside is there.

The Warriors bandwagon is getting quite full, but I'm comfortable with my spot way in the back. My boss asked me the other day where they fit on my sports hierarchy and I answered somewhere below the Sharks, which is true. I used to be a big NBA fan, but recently I haven't been able to get into it.

Still, I've never let myself root for any other team besides the Warriors. I can't claim to have suffered like true Warriors fans so I won't take credit for the team like some are doing. I recognize I'm a casual fan now, but if I ever do get into basketball they are the only team I'll go with. So for now I take pleasure in the battle they're giving the Mavericks. Maybe someday it will be more.

And I am smarter for it

2007-04-25T16:24:00.000-07:00

So the Giants finally beat the Dodgers yesterday. Their first in eight games. A few things I learned yesterday:

Watching the game on MLB.tv, I got to listen to Vin Scully. Never a bad thing, but Scully knows way too much about Matt Morris. He told a story about how he met his wife, what his dad did for a living, where his sisters work and what sports they used to play. Kind of creepy.

Scully also read almost word for word Harry Schulman's article on Armando Benitez
from earlier in the week. Still better to listen to than 99 percent of the other guys out there. And we all know where that top one percent lives.

Speaking of Benitez, he is the scarriest closer I have ever had to watch on a consistent basis. Watching him try and save a game is like watching someone pump gas into the street. You know it should be doing something great for you and all you can do is watch the dollars roll by and hope no one lights a match.

Does Bengie Molina know about run expectancy charts? With no outs and runners on first and third Molina took off for home when a short grounder was hit to short. Scully instantly said he was trying to save the double play. With runners on first and second and one out, teams are expected to score 0.80389 runs. I'm assuming Molina scores if they go for the double play, in which case his decision was bad. But if Molina assumed he wouldn't make it and the case would have been runner onthrid with two outs, he made the right decision (0.42331 runs). This is a pointless discussion though, as Morris would walk (1.61778), Roberts would get out (0.81787) and thenVizquel would get out (0.00000).

Best, brightest

2007-04-24T09:05:00.000-07:00

David Halberstam died yesterday.

I first read Halberstam my freshman year of college, when I got October 1964 as a Christmas present. I was completely drawn into the season, the stories of the players and the teams and every word on the page.

After that I went to the school library and devoured everything of his I could, including the 792-page "The Powers that Be." He knew how to interview, how to find information that no one else could to tell a story like no one else could.

David Halberstam is one of the reasons I feel proud to call myself a journalist and I'm sorry to see him go.

Just to remind you

2007-04-13T09:33:00.000-07:00

If the Giants lose today at Pittsburgh, it will equal the worst 10-game start in the San Francisco era. That lovely feat was accomplished by the 1983 team, which featured an OPS+ of 76 by Johnnie Lemaster and an ERA+ of 84 by wins leader Bill Laskey.

Speaking of OPS+, currently Omar Vizquel sits at 24, while Randy Winn has an astronomical 29. Good times.

Back to Fresno

2007-04-12T09:37:00.000-07:00

The Mark Sweeney Situation has been resolve. Thank God. For weeks Friday has been looking in our national consciousness, a day to be remembered not only for its challenges but the heroism of those that rose to face them.

Well, that happened or Sabean decided to send Kevin Frandsen back to Fresno to make room for Sweeney. So far Frandsen is 0-1 in three games, so its not as if they're sending down someone who was tearing it up in the bigs or anything Still, I feel this is just a way to buy more time to shuttle Sweeney off somewhere else, or at least give him a chance to build up some value. Even if everyone stays healthy, I expect Frandsen back by the All-Star break at least.

Not that he doesn't have anything to prove in Fresno, but in 298 AB last year he hit .304/.358/.440 out there. I hope he gets something out of playing everyday, but I think he needs more time against major league pitching to really improve.

Of proof and pudding

2007-04-11T06:56:00.000-07:00

Matt Morris is the best pitcher on the Giants.

There, I said it.

Don't believe me? Look at the win column. That's right, that's a two. As in more than one. I thought you'd be impressed.

Now just because his WHIP is 1.59 or the fact he walked more people than he struck out Tuesday doesn't mean he's not the best pitcher on the Giants. See, he's a stopper. The guy that comes in and gets things done.

It's inconsequential that Matt Cain, Noah Lowry and Russ Ortiz have all thrown games that they would have won as well with six runs of support. They didn't pitch to the situation, which is their own fault.

But as much as I love Morris, the real reason the Giants won last night was me. For the second time this season I wore my lone Giants shirt to work, and for the second time this season the Giants won. So the record right now is Shirt 2-0, Giants 0-6. With great power comes great responsibility.

Things are looking up

2007-04-10T09:51:00.000-07:00

Sorry for the misdirection in the title. I was scrolling through my feeds and kept reading things such as "Bonds, Giants not ready to panic," "Way to early to say it's over, but ... ," and the like. So here's one, that if even for the briefest of time, might give you hope.

Reasons for Fear
Hitting: The offense is a mess. Right now the Giants are last in the National League in runs (16), XBH (15) and OPS (.615). Last night they wasted a great performance from Matt Cain, losing 1-0 to the Padres. So far five starters -- Bonds, Roberts, Winn, Feliz and Vizquel -- are hitting .208 or below.

Pitching: The team is 13th in ERA (4.35) and K/BB (1.54). The bullpen has an ERA of 4.95, with 1.44 K/BB. So far Barry Zito is 0-2 with a 8.18 ERA.

All Together Now: The team has been outscored 32-14 in seven games. No good can come of that.

Reasons for Hope
Common Opponents: The Giants have faced the two toughest teams in the NL West early in April. Having a bad offensive weak against two of the better staffs in the league does not constitute a crisis.

The Real Aces: Matt Cain and Noah Lowry have pitched well so far in limited innings. Cain has a 2.77 ERA with 0.92 WHIP.

Hitting: These guys have to regress to something resembling their career averages. Right?

Conclusion
As bad as it looks, there is still time for this to be proven an aberration, a tough couple of series against a couple of good teams. Remember, as I said before the Giants have faced TWO teams so far, out of the 16 the NL has to offer. For all the 2-1, 1-0 games against the Dodgers and Padres there will be some exciting 12-10 games against the Rockies and Diamondbacks. Give it time.

Someone at work asked me what the Giants have to do to win. My answer was basically to look at my shoes and mumble a little (I'm surrounded by Dodger fans, in freaking Oregon). What I came up with was that the team will not score a lot of runs but the staff is good enough that they don't have too. This isn't a team that can go out and score three a night and win, but something just below league average could still keep them in the hunt.

The offense has to start being more patient. Last night the team was unable to score after three doubles. The real problem I'm seeing is that no one is on first for those doubles. The key to scoring runs is getting people on base, and that hasn't been happening. The team has an OBP of .294, which is unacceptable for Neifi Perez, let alone an entire major league team.

I think the possibility is there for at least an average team. The start may look horrible. Records may fall, empires may crumble. But in the end I think this is still at least a 75-win team. Though that's not any kind of accomplishment, it keeps the Giants out of last place. Well, last place in the NL at least (Go Nationals!).

Finally it comes

2007-04-06T09:37:00.000-07:00

The Giants finally got in the win column last night, beating the Padres 5-3, the opposite of the night before.

You knew it was going to be a good night when Jon Miller opened the broadcast with, "Pedro Feliz gets a night off." Instead, Klesko got first and Aurilia slid over to third.

This is the lineup the Giants need to be using. Though eight hits (and only one XBH) is not what you'd like I still think this is a better option for the rest of the season.

Today I was reading through the MLB.com notes column, now presided over by Chris Haft. I've been hoping for good things from Haft after the Rich Draper Incident, but I'm curious why he added this graph to his piece:

Bochy moved first baseman Rich Aurilia to third base and inserted the left-handed-batting Klesko at first against San Diego right-hander Clay Hensley. Aurilia, 4-for-6 off Hensley entering the game, was a better choice to keep in the lineup instead of third baseman Pedro Feliz, who took his 1-for-7 career effort against Hensley to the bench.

I think that some pitchers can defintely have a batter's number, but six and seven at bats a piece do not tell you that. The reason Feliz was probably out of the lineup is that Hensley is a sinker-ball pitcher, and I hear Feliz doesn't handle those too well.

Now, not a Murray Chass sort of statement, I'll be following his work a little more closely to try and spot some tendencies. Not that I wont read someone if I don't agree with how they look at the game, but it's nice to know what sort of slant I'll be getting.

Either way, I hope him the best. At least for another two years or so, when better job will open up somewhere for him, so I can move in and take his current assignment.

Day Two: Victory Nears

2007-04-05T09:09:00.000-07:00

So, the second game of the Giants season wasn't quite as bad as the first. We'll take things in steps this year.

Still a loss, but not a turn the children's heads away from the screen kind of loss. 5-3 is how decent teams lose games. Couple of quick notes:

Barry Bonds is good. Barry Bonds is old: In his first at bat the octogenarian took Chris Young deep, which is what should happen when center fielders pitch for the wrong team. H was off balance, looked terrible, but was able to poke it to the opposite field and jut sneak it over. He also made a great shoestring catch, running almost to the bag at third. Unfortunately he came up slowly, looking every bit the 83 year-old ex-drug addict he may or may not be. And it showed the rest of the game, culminating in a terrible at bat against Cla Meredith, striking out on what was a very good breaking pitch in the dirt.
Matt Cain is good. Matt Cain is young: Matt Cain is not a stopper sort of pitcher -- meaning basically he can't be counted on to win the large majority of his starts yet -- but I'm going to enjoy seeing him come around the rotation. Cain was sharp for around four innings, consistently hitting 93-94 on his fastball and putting it where it needed to be. But in the fifth things didn't work so well. Kruko said he was overthrowing. Either way, he left two pitches over the plate and that lost it right there. It seems like those things can be fixed though, as Cain came back and had a good sixth, finishing 6.0/3/1/6/2 (IP, R, BB, K, HR). How Barry Zito has a lower ERA right now ...
Bengie: I am not enjoying this Bengie Molina character. Batting sixth Wednesday he was 1-4 with five left on base. It appears we got the oldest, slowest, fattest Molina brother, who has lost any semblance of hitting ability. May I be proven wrong. But at this point I'm hoping he scores some free Great America tickets and takes the weekend off. I'm trying to imagine some scenario where NotGardo makes it back in the lineup without harm coming to Bengie. Not that type of guy. Haven't found one yet, but I'll keep at it.
W3BMLB: Pedro Feliz. Angry yet? OK, I'll continue. Petey had one shinning moment, driving in a run in the sixth to tie it. Unfortunately beyond that he continued hacking, laying off only one pitch in the dirt that I saw (He followed that up by striking out on the exact same pitch. You think other teams know?). I can't imagine that Kleskrilia couldn't put up better numbers with almost the same defense. Someday maybe, but not today. Sigh.
I saw it!: Last night was the first time I've used MLBtv, and it was fun. I was able to switch back and forth between the Dodger and Red Sox games while I was waiting for the Giants to come online, and the picture wasn't terrible at full screen. It's weird though, since the majority of video I watch online is highlights, the whole time I felt like the game was happening in the past. I'm sure I'll get over it. Though I do have a strange need to play pong ...

The tyranny of opening day

2007-04-03T21:35:00.000-07:00

Now Giants faithful, you may hear reports today of some "game" that allegedly "happened." I say pay no attention.

Today is what many call "Opening Day." I find that ludicrous. Opening day was Sunday. Didn't you see, two teams played? First day of baseball, Opening Day.

Now, yes, the Giants lost 7-0 to the San Diego Padres. That did occur. But since today is "Opening Day" you're going to here people dredge up terrible statistics, comparing this to past "Opening Days." One example, from the Associated Press' JANIE McCAULEY:
San Francisco was shut out on opening day for the first time since a 6-0 defeat against Bob Gibson and the St. Louis Cardinals in 1967. The Giants haven't lost by more than seven runs in an opener since falling 13-5 to the Philadelphia Phillies in 1932.

Now, if this was August 3 would the press dig up the last time the Giants lost by 7 on that day? No, no they wouldn't. So now, because of some archaic ritual of time keeping, the loyal fans of the San Francisco Giants are berated with remembrances of some of the worst games in years.

I say to you, do not listen. Sure, Barry Zito gave up three runs in five innings and the bullpen leaked like it had a cold, but these are everyday occurances. The Giants lost by seven or more runs 12 times last year in the first half alone.

So I put the terrible feeling I have in my stomach squarely on the press. Not Ryan Klesko's one GIDP, Pedro Feliz's two strikeouts or Jonathan Sanchez's 27.00 ERA. If they don't give equal coverage to the Giants next seven run victory -- with a complete history of every time its happened since Taft -- I will use that as evidence of a vast Dodger-centric media bias.

So you have your task, JANIE McCAULEY. Choose wisely.

And we are rewarded

2007-04-03T08:54:00.000-07:00

Finally, the Giants' opening day is here.

I've never been a fan of the three-part Opening Day. Everyone should play on the same day. It just gives fans so much more to talk about and brings more people into the conversation, making it more of an event.

Either way, the Giants kick it off against the Padres at 1:05 p.m. Like most I will be at work. Unlike most, my computer at the office isn't fast enough to follow online in any sort of way. Such is life.

One thing from the first day of action:

IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	Season ERA
F. Hernandez (W, 1-0)	8.0	3	0	0	2	12	0	0.00

IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	Season ERA
Z. Duke	7.0	8	2	2	1	0	1	2.57

One of the things I love about baseball; there is no one way to do things. You can strike out 12 or 0, and still put your team in a position to win.

Interesting title for unispired post

2007-03-23T09:31:00.000-07:00

Little time, so little thought and a quick hit ...

-With the Matt Schaub deal going down earlier this week David Carr is readily available for probably a fourth or fifth round pick. With the Raiders currently starring at Andrew Walter and Josh Booty as the only two quarterbacks on the depth chart, I think they should jump at this.

Carr knows how to play with what the Raiders will give him; A poor offensive line, one or two play makers and not much else. The last three years he's started 16 games a season with a completion percentage over 60 and a 41-37 touchdown to interception ratio. Not fantastic, but think how much an average quarterback would have helped with the way the defense played last season.

I'm guessing the trade would take JRuss off the draft board, but I'm OK with that. He's a amazing physical specimen, but lots of quarterbacks have been and turned out to be nothing. Yes, sometimes they're Peyton Manning or Vince Young. Carr is the low risk scenario, but there is enough upside to make it worth it.

It would also free up the Raiders to trade down in the first round to someone who wants to make sure Russell or Brady Quinn don't get lost to Detroit or Cleveland, or someone who absolutely needs Calvin Johnson. I see a lot of players in the first that could help the Raiders next year. Either Johnson, Joe Thomas or a defensive pick could be great, and picking up a few more second and third round picks will help the team rebuild the offensive line in a draft deep with big players.

Getting Carr by himself is a good move, but the dominoes it pushes over may be just as good, There are a lot more holes on this team than quarter back. And if we can spend a mid-round pick to get a starting quarterback I'm all for it. With that decision out of the way, the team can focus on a number of other issues.

And remember, the next best quarterback out there may be Joey Harrington.

-Duck Futter

The Oregon Ducks will be playing UNLV for a spot in the Elite 8 tonight. I'll admit I know almost nothing about the Rebels, so I'll take that as a good sign. I've gotten more into Oregon since I left there for some reason. THIS was one of the first years I actually watched both a football and basketball game on TV, despite living in an area for four years that replayed both constantly.

Whatever happens tonight it has been fun to watch this year. Aaron Brooks coming into his own, Tajuan Porter taking rainbow threes from anywhere on the court for absolutely no reason, and Maaaaaaaarty Luenen hoarding A's in his name.

I'm the guy who reached for Todd Jones (at your draft)

2007-03-09T18:21:00.000-08:00

It's not hard to make me feel like I know absolutely nothing about a subject. It's pretty much how I spend my time, going from area to area of human life, realizing I know next to nothing about any of it.

I bring this up because I'm joining my first fantasy baseball league since my senior year of high school. I stopped in college because every summer I was moving around constantly; spending time at school, my parents place, vacation and any number of places with or without Internet or phone access. With two younger brothers addicted to AIM and MySpace, finding time every week to check Steve Traschel's WHIP was not an easy task.

My main concern was ending up managing one of hose teams that would go unchecked for weeks on end. I hate those guys and I didn't want to become one. So instead of taking a chance every year of possible starting a dead end team I left it out.

Instead I played OOTP in an online league. Even that I had to quit after three seasons because I started working at my college paper and time became a much more precious commodity.

Not that I don't enjoy fantasy games. I play fantasy football every year. I love making rosters; I used to do I with my baseball cards in elementary school. I even held drafts and kept stats in m own made up system. It just felt like there were too man obstacles to me being a productive league member.

But now I'm out of school, have a job and a permanent high-speed all to myself and I felt ready to take the plunge.

So about a month ago I started to delve into the intricacies of the fantasy baseball world. My first concern was drafting strategies. I know the players, I know the stats, but how do I turn that knowledge into fantasy whoop ass?

I had to stop thinking about the players I would want on a real team (Miguel Cabrera is young, cheap and has great OBP numbers) to what would help me in fantasy (look at how many steals Juan Pierre has!!!). That was difficult. I sill want Miguel Cabrera over Juan Pierre, but coming to grips with the fact that I might actually want Juan Pierre was a challenge.

I started to look into the "Tier" draft strategy, which meant I had to look harder at the things I knew to be true (Roy Oswalt is better than Aaron Harang) and put rigid, unforgiving barriers between them (Roy Oswalt is worth exactly $9 more than Aaron Harang). Then there were the questions of when to draft pitchers, go for steals or hits, saves or strikeouts, etc ...

The other night I did a mock draft and got lost around the third round. I panicked and picked Chris Carpenter. I ended up without a first baseman until the 10th round when I grabbed Adrian Gonzalez. Corey Patterson was my starting center fielder.

So maybe I'm not ready. I plan to have a few more cram sessions, Identify backups to my backups and sleepers for those guys. And after 15 or 20 more mock drafts I'll get into a league around August.

I've more or less resigned my self to being cannon fodder for the more experienced players out there. I will go out, compete and be destroyed. Once I reattach my head to my body I will learn why I was so terrible.

So look out fantasy world of 2008. I'll be older. I'll be wiser. Do not mess with me (In the future).

Walking headline pun signs extension

2007-03-01T19:06:00.000-08:00

While I'm working on something that should be a little bit longer post than I've been doing lately, I wanted to throw my hat in on the Matt Cain signing.

Required Reading: For background and an excellent explanation of my team's do this, hit up Lefty Malo, who predicted this about a month ago.

I still haven't seen final numbers, but the $9 million figure that Rich Harden and Noah Lowry got came up, so we'll have to see what the money for the option year is like.

Overall I'm happy with this. The risks are laid out clearly for both sides, and unless the option is $15 million the Giants have a decent deal on their hands. If Cain continues at the pace he had last season (108 ERA+) then the Giants have at least a league-average pitcher locked up at a constant rate for the next four years, with no messy arbitration hearings.

Bryan Tsao at the Hardball Times wasn't as enthusiastic, thinking the Giants did the deal a little early:
I guess this potentially represents a slight bargain, and might generate some goodwill, but I much prefer the Beane model, where you wait until after the second season and then buy out at least one year of free agency, since that year and the last year of arb are the ones that really kill you. Here the Giants are maybe saving three or four million if everything goes right, but have assumed a ton of risk for potentially very little return.

I don't agree with the "ton of risk" assessment. A four-year, $9.25 million deal isn't exactly Darren Dreifort or Gil Meche. Yes, there is a very good chance Cain doesn't progress or gets hurt, and the Giants get zero productivity back on the investment. But you have that with any pitcher and after this off season any deal$50 million almost looks like a bargain, even for someone with only one full major league season.

And the giggly fan in me likes to see the Giants developing and trying to keep talent. It has been awhile and I'd like to see a few of these guys stick around. The deal doesn't keep Cain in town any longer than his service time would have anyway, but the gesture from the front office is appreciated, and much better than what the Marlins have done with Miguel Cabrera.

No more Journey psych-outs

2007-02-27T11:12:00.000-08:00

Sometimes it's too easy to look at the result of something and forget how you got there. Like blaming that guy in your office for freaking out whenever someone mentions Steve Perry before knowing his parents tied him up in the basement and forced him to listen to journey eight hours a day. Trust me, I'll never make that mistake again.

I kept that in mind today as I read this snippet of note from a Chris Haft mailbag (I'm still holding out hope for some kind of anti-Draper).

On some extremely good teams, Feliz might indeed be a utilityman. But the power-starved Giants need the pop Feliz provides, however inconsistently. For better or worse, he averaged 21 home runs the past three seasons. Feliz's biggest problem in 2006 was insufficient rest. With Aurilia and perhaps Kevin Frandsen available to give him a break -- and with Klesko handy, as you said, to play first when Aurilia isn't there -- Feliz should remain fresh and potentially more productive this season.

OK, so maybe I don't agree that the Giants need the pop Feliz provides. Remember he was the Worst Third Baseman in the Major Leagues last season. Even 98 RBIs don't mean that much with a 3.8 RC/27.

But the idea that it was overuse that drove him to it (Steve Perry, Steeeeeve Perry) is intriguing. Feliz was never great at getting on base (04-06 line: .256/.293/.443), but if he has to play can we not try to make it better?

So I checked the Day-by-Day database to see how Feliz did as the season progressed, and by damn he did get noticebly worse as the days wore on.

April-June

BA	OBA	Slug%	OPS	SB%	AB/HR
.275	.306	.476	.782	-	26.08

July-October

BA	OBA	Slug%	OPS	SB%	AB/HR
.216	.260	.395	.655	50.00	26.91

And here's how his OBP broke down by month:

May: .336
June: .320
July: .291
August: .263
September: .223

His May was actually pretty good. He finished a .308/.336./.564 line, hitting seven home runs with 21 RBI. Small sample size and all, if he good do that all year I would have no problem with him.

The big problem was that no other month came close. After his .900 OPS in may he never got within .100 points any other month, finishing with a .504 OPS in 98 September AB.

Conclusion: Yeah, Feliz may have been worn down last year. But it just made a bad player worse. Even looking at his career-highs, a monster Feliz would be something like .280/.310./520, and that's with rounding-up all his season-highs.

Those numbers would put him somewhere between Brandon Inge and Joe Crede. Those numbers are also completely unrealistic.

What's more likely is that the new platoons give Feliz some more rest and he continues his sloptastic ways at a slightly less nausea-inducing pace. Though the platoons may not even be the reason. Bill James, CHONE, Marcel and ZiPS all project him to improve his OBP next year, so it may just be random chance.

But put me down for not-Joe Crede.

One down

2007-02-22T17:55:00.000-08:00

The Raiders have officially ended the Aaron Brooks experiment.

With Tui nearly gone what this means is that the Raiders have only Andrew Walter to cower helplessly behind the gaping holes left by the offensive line, screaming out to the sky "God! Why have you forsaken me!" He will then be struck blind.

It also means the Raiders have two QB spots open. Do I hear the calls for a rookie and a veteran? Yes. Yes I do. But that would be the easy, conventional way to go. Al Davis is not that person.

How about signing Jeff Garcia and drafting Calvin Johnson and then Troy Smith in the third round? It would certainly solve the problem of having only one quarterback and would be very unexpected, though it wouldn't do so much about all that suck.

Maybe they'll address that next off-season.

Too much (clap clap) time on my hands...

2007-02-21T21:21:00.000-08:00

From the SportsLogos.net:

On This Date
February 22nd

147 Years Ago... in 1860: Baseball's first ever organized game was played in San Francisco.

I had absolutely no idea.

I've spent a bunch of time running different sets of numbers through Baseball-Reference's new PI feature. I could probably sit around and do this all day if someone would pay me.

For instance, since Will Clark left a Giants first baseman has hit 15 home runs in a season exactly five times. Four we're J.T. Snow. The other? Mark Carreon.

The Giants also haven't had two pitchers 25 or younger win 10 games in a season since 1983. That was the second straight year Atlee Hammaker and Bill Laskey accomplished the feat. The team has had at least one player do it for three straight seasons, though (Cain, Lowry and our old friend Jerome Williams).

There hasn't been a pair of under-25ers each have an ERA+ of 100 since 1974 with Mike Caldwell and John D'Acquisto.

With Cain still only 22 in baseball years and Sanchez and Lincecum near the majors I'm hoping these random facts will change real quickly. No team since the 2001 Oakland A's (Seriously, do I have to put their names here?) has had three starters under 25 with ERA+'s of 100.

Of the last 10 teams to pull it off, six won their division, two finished second and only one finished lower than third. That would be the 1984 Los Angeles Dodgers (Yeah! Take that burn 22-year old enemy team!).

Otherwise I'm sitting around for the new version of OOTP to be released and the new episode of The Office to come out.

It's snowing!

2007-02-18T17:23:00.000-08:00

Awash in the spring training fluff that is raining down upon us, I found this little snippet from a Rich Draper (shudder) article on Russ Ortiz. Ortiz says that all his problems have been linked a small change in his delivery that had gone undiagnosed for, let's look at the record here ... apparently 2005:

The nine-year veteran thanks Baltimore pitching coach Leo Mazzone with spotting that delivery error while studying videotapes last year after Ortiz was demoted to the bullpen.

Now normally I don't put a lot of stock in anything a player/manager/coach/general manager/bat boy says before the season, but anything attached to the Miracle Worker needs to at least be checked out. So thanks to David Pinto's Day by Day database, here's Bug Russ' numbers with Arizona and Baltimore in 2006:

Arizona

ERA	Win Pct.	K per 9	BB per 9	HR per 9	K/BB
7.54	.000	8.3	8.7	1.19	.95

Baltimore

ERA	Win Pct.	K per 9	BB per 9	HR per 9	K/BB
8.48	.000	5.1	4.0	3.35	1.28

Now these are only 22 and 40 IP respectively so no big conclusions can be drawn. Also park factors, a new defense and different levels of competition could also have played a factor. But while getting fewer Ks his K/BB numbers improved in Baltimore, those the home run rate is pretty bad. But Ortiz said he changed once he had been moved to the bullpen, so let's look at his numbers after his last start:

ERA	Win Pct.	K per 9	BB per 9	HR per 9	K/BB
4.71	-	7.7	3.0	2.57	2.57

Now these are much better. Once again this is in only around 2o IP, but it's something to think about, coupled with his fall performances and these pictures. If nothing else, the Giants may have a decent reliever and a possible closer if he can't start anymore. With Arizona paying most of his salary, any value squeezed from Ortiz will make the signing worth it.

Right now I think there's not enough data post-Mazzone to say whether Ortiz is likely to improve this season. But I now think it may be possible, which is better than I've been at some points since he was signed.

The Drama

2007-02-17T13:03:00.000-08:00

Wow, it seemed the Giants are just courting controversy. First Barry Bonds is well ... Barry Bonds.

Then Barry Zito -- The Good Barry -- changes his motion. Then he doesn't, or maybe just not as much.

And now the ever present Attack of the Noah Lowrys heats up again. In December a MySpace
blog claiming to be Lowry ripped Jason Schmidt for defecting to the Dodgers. Apparently wasn't really him. I know what you're thinking, 'How could someone be able to use the internets for that?' But I guess this is possible in the age we live in. I've always said there are just too many tubes in this world.

They tore that site down but according to the Chronicle there are several new ones. Some highlights from the Pod Lowrys:

Most guys say the hate chick flicks but we all know that deep down, they love them, and I'm one of the few guys who will admit that I actaully don't mind watch a chick flick!

Who I'd like to meet:
Jill, She comes to my practices and lights up my world. She's playing hard to get. What do I need to do to impress her? Jill I gave you my number. Please call.

Tim Lincecum also has a MySpace page. His name is jusTim:

i won't bullshit anyone and i tell it how it is, I like to have a good time every now and then, but i'm focused when i need to be. I'm extremely competitive and hate losing at almost anything...oh and if you're gonna ask to be my friend on here you need to either know me or talk to me, and girls, if i ask to be your friend don't think i'm just one of "those" guys, cus i'm not...

I guess until every major league player comes out and states, one by one, that each of these pages aren't real, we're just going to have to assume that they are and take everything written as gospel. Otherwise there'd be way too much thinking going on and the Internet can't have that.

I also looked for Pedro Feliz. There's one and it's not all that entertaining, but the sad thing was that 14 other people showed up with the name. The world is most definitely not fair.

(Dawning of a) New Era

2007-02-14T09:02:00.000-08:00

Finally, all of those counters and clocks can be retired. All of those flickering numbers, moving ever closer to the exact moment when pitchers and catchers report can stop. It's here. Baseball players can start playing baseball again.

I realize for many this is a big day, but for me I've never seen the big deal. Yes, it's another step to real baseball in April, but other than that all it means for me is a bunch of top-five questions lists (apparently there is some controversy with Barry Bonds. I was unaware) and some pictures of Armando Benitez in a different style hat.

But this is the first day towards learning who will get the fifth spot in the rotation. Will Russ Ortiz find a way to do a reasonable impersonation of a major league pitcher or will a younger option (Sanchez, Lincecum) get a chance. For now I'm in the Sanchez camp, but I'm open to persuasion. That's why they play the meaningless March games.

It's also one day closer to finding out whether Mando has anything left in his tank or if Brian Wilson can steal the closer job. If Benitez can hit at least 80 mph he'll have the job at least the first month -- veteran savvy and all that -- but you can't count out the serpent. I'd love both of them to be effective members of an improved bullpen, which could happen if Mando is healed and Wilson continues to progress in the majors.

So I guess there is some merit to all the excitement over pitchers and catchers reporting. But I'm still focused on that day about two months from now when there will be a real 25-man roster, real stats and standings and all of my current irrational hopes can be crushed over a grueling eight month period. Yea, baseball.

UPDATE: Something Lefty Malo had mentioned earlier, but Bonds is not listed on the Giants Web site 40-man roster anymore. According to Henry Schulman, apparently the Chronicle called the Giants to ask why Bonds was still on the list on the Web site and they basically said, "What, he's not on the list!" and hung up real fast. And wouldn't you know it, it's gone now.

UPDATE (Typos are fun division): Apparently the Giants have decided that after years of trying there is no way they can ever replace Will Clark and have given up on first base all together. CBS says on its Giants projected lineup that both Feliz and Aurilia will be playing third this season. We'll have to see how this strategy works out, but a bold move by Bochy.

Where the money goes

2007-02-09T13:40:00.000-08:00

Baseball Prospectus has an article up now explaining a tweak to Marginal Payroll/Marginal Wins to take into account how those last extra millions could push a team into the playoffs. It assumes that any win between 88-98 is worth more to a team because it may move it closer to the payoff or playoff money.

I'm not enough of an economist, statistician or um ... person who knows things about numbers to be able to say whether or not this is a valid metric, though the econ classes I took in college seem to point to it at least making sense in theory.

What amazed me was just how bad the Giants are under both measures; Fifth in MP/MW and third in MP/MWW. That means all but two other teams used their money wiser than the Giants. Knowing the payroll, poor decisions and poor product on the field I knew Sabean and Co. were not very efficient with the dollars, but to see just how bad was a little disconcerting.

It's sad when you realize the only positive thoughts of your favorite team arethat they could change almost everything about they way they operate.

Oh, and Tim Lincecum, too. Though that's not so sad to think about.

The trade that wouldn't die

2007-02-09T10:21:00.000-08:00

The last few days the rumors of the Giants shopping Armando Benitez have begun again. I haven't seen any names linked to the most recent reports as it seems all parties concerned have moved to the wait and see camp, trying to figure out if Benitez can still pitch before moving him.

I think this will help the Giants, because FSM knows his value probably can't get lower. Though I wouldn't out it past him.

Henry Schulman had a short write up on Benitez going to spring training early to meet with trainers and start throwing off a mound. Absent from the article is any quote from Benitez himself though, and Bruce Bochy is quoted as saying Mando is a little heavier than the team would like.

It's still early in the process but that last part doesn't sound good, though the appearance of committment is nice. Hopefully both the Giants and Benitez are so eager to be rid of each other both sides will work as hard as possible to get a deal done.

Yesterday I finally got my copy of Baseball America's prospect handbook. Reading Brian Wilson's entry I started to get a little more excited about the Giants closer of the future, especially this part"

Quietly intense and armed with a huge water serpent tattooed on his left arm, Wilson has the look of a closer.

I usually don't put too much stock into something like intensity or the look of a player, but a huge water serpent? Hell yeah. We need to decide on his entry music soon.

His 2006 in San Francisco wasn't anything spectacular and the book mentioned his fastball control is still a little off, but with a high 90s slider he may not be too far away. It gives me confidence that when Benitez does leave, this year or in the future, someone other than Tyler Walker can step in for the 8th and 9th inning.

Yesterday also saw Ken Rosenthal batting around locations for A-Rod once he cuts and runs from the Yankees next year. First off I find it interesting that people have already written this as almost certain fact. Never the less ...

Of the four teams he lists as Obvious Fits, the Giants make an appearance. Considering the Marlins are also included you can take that for what you will. He doesn't offer any reasons besides the franchise needs a middle of the lineup hitter once Bonds leaves and Pedro Feliz is, um ... ineffective. I personally wouldn't mind A-Rod as a Giants as long as the numbers work ($19 mil a year wouldn't be terrible but that's not happening). Though I believe the collective weight of the A-Rod is gay jokes could cause the Bay Bridge to collapse again (If only they had finished the retro-fit! Damn Cal-Trans!).

Short Raiders Note: The Raiders signed Tom Rathman as a running backs coach. Kay.

Nifty Gifties

2007-02-07T10:37:00.000-08:00

The Lane Kiffin era has been getting off to a ... start. He's shaken up the coaching staff, losing Bilitnekoff and others, bringing in some Falcons assistants and others and hopefully removing that mothball and brimstone smell from the locker room.

Jerry McDonald also has a nice profile up on the Boy Wonder here.

As for the Giants, we are in that period where the lineup is basically set, pitchers and catchers are still a week away and everyone is letting their imaginations run wild. I've seen everything from division winner to 100 losses and it's clear people have no idea what the Giants are going to be this year.

It may be better than knowing your team is doomed to failure. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things. But it makes this waiting period even worse. What the Hell is going to happen? Will Bonds collapse in a puddle of suspicious substances, will Barry Zito be average or slightly above? And what of Lincecum? Tell me, what of Lincecum!

Oh well. This is the part in the game where you're waiting to hit the sim button, to see exactly how well all those 80 and 90 players you've assembled will fit together. Hopefully I wont be cursing the screen once this starts up.

UPDATE: THT has a study on whether Bonds will get to Aaron this season. Their answer: Yes.

Kiffin: The Press Conference

2007-01-24T09:43:00.000-08:00

Reports are beginning to circulate of the goings on from yesterday's official announcement of

Lane Kiffin as the Raiders' new coach. Some highlights:
My media brethren who covered Kiffin at USC called him a "boy genius," a whiz with his X's and O's, someone's who's matured from his hot-headed early years at USC.
Yet, in one story relayed to me, a Kiffin colleague once described him as: "One of the most brilliant young minds in all of football ... and one of the biggest (jerks) you'll ever meet."

At USC, Kiffin often was criticized for conservative play-calling; USC followers have made him a whipping boy on various blogs and fan sites. He vows to implement an attacking offense to Oakland.
"I will bring an explosive, powerful offense to this franchise,'' Kiffin said. "We will utilize our skill players, our big-time players, in the best way. We will get them the football. They will play happy, and they will play hard."

And the winner for most bizarre utterance by Al Davis so far this year is...

There was a bizarre exchange with the Merc's Tim Kawakami when Davis asked him if he knew who Deng Xioping was.

"You don't even know your own culture,'' Davis said.

Davis was referring to the former leader of Communist China. Kawakami is Japanese-American. Anyone else would be subject to riducule for one of those "guess you all look alike'' moments.
Davis will slide, because you dismiss it like he's your strange uncle.

From what I've seen today, Kiffin is stiff at press conferences. That's pretty much all you can get out of these things. Writers on deadline will try to make comments seems like more than they are, but in the end all these events are is a meet-and-greet full of fluff and happy predictions about a glorious future.

I'm still planning on holding off judgement, though that jerk comment is somewhat unsettling. Though if there is a profession one might need to be a little bit of a jerk, NFL head coach seems like it would be on the list.

Late to the Party

2007-01-23T21:32:00.000-08:00

So yeah, a day has already passed since the Raiders hired Lane Kiffin as their next head coach. Gary Peterson, Gwen Knapp and Jerry McDonald have already chimed in, among others.

Right now I'm not sure what to think. Anyone Davis targets as a young head coach has potential, but anyone who would accept the Raiders job worries me. I also know very little about his philosophy as an offensive coach, though I'm sure the next few days will offer some insights.

The big question, as it always is, is how much control with Davis cede? I'm hoping this last season will have shocked him into submission, though he could also be sitting in his bunker softly repeating "If only I'd fought harder!" while holding a toy riffle, rocking back and forth on the floor.

With no track record on Kiffin it's impossible to say what he'll do as a head coach. With no trail he has no victories to look at, but also no failures to hide. So maybe I'll just assume that since he has never failed as a head coach he never will, and I'll project unhealthy expectations on him.

It actually fells pretty good. Much better than reality.

The Ballad of the Sark

2007-01-19T21:23:00.000-08:00

Steve Sarkisian, Jan 9, 2007:

"I'm going for this job 100 percent," Sarkisian said. "I'm solely focused on this job with the Oakland Raiders."

Steve Sarkisian, Jan 19, 2007:

"I thank them for their interest in me," Sarkisian said in a statement released by the university. "While the job was never offered to me, at this time in my career, I've told them I want to stay at USC.

So what happened in the roughly two weeks in between? Who knows. Maybe the league is trying to keep good, young coaches away from the Raiders and threatened to do something terrible to him if he took the job (Though what would be worse than getting the Raiders' job? Snakes?). Maybe Sarkisian found the coffin Al Davis sleeps in and decided to stick to his policy of not working for the undead.

Maybe he was tired of being a front runner with no job offer and actually enjoys USC.

Whatever it was, Sark is now off the list, apparently along with James Lofton. The rumor dujour is that the Raiders will wait and talk with Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels once the Pats lose, meaning Oakland would have to wait until at least after the Super Bowl because the Colts are not beating the Patriots. The Raiders tried the same thing last year with Ken Whisenhunt, and you can see how that turned out.

So, what seemed like it would be a quick and tidy hiring process has turned into the makings of a fiasco. I can already hear the gasps from the audience at such a thrilling plot turn. You see, Al Davis was a ghost the WHOLE time.

But I had figured it out anyway.

The Oakland Raiders are pleased to announce...

2007-01-18T10:22:00.000-08:00

So last night I checked in on Deadspin before going to bed and found this, in big bold, italic typeface:
Meet Your New Oakland Raiders Head Coach
Quoting a story from the San Diego Union Tribune, the royal "we" over at Deadspin said that James Lofton was in the final stages of finishing a deal with the Raiders. OK, interesting.

This morning I woke up to find that Steve Sarkisian had interviewed again Wednesday and reportedly was going to be offered the job before he left the Bay Area.

What does all this mean? I'll take the Times and Chron over a San Diego paper (Go NOrCal, wOOt!), but I'll take Al Davis at a press conference over anything. Until I see that frail man at a rickety table in front of 50 reporters and photographers talking about the Team of the Decades like it was still a fact, I'm done trying to guess who the coach will be. I'm going to keep up on the names, but just let me know when you're done. OK Al?

Mike DiGiovanna wants to trade for Pedro Feliz

2007-01-18T10:03:00.000-08:00

Who is Mike DiGiovanna you ask? Unfortunately not a high ranking baseball executive, but an LA Times staff writer. From a mailbag in the LA Times, where a reader suggests an Angels-Giants swap of Chone Figgins and Pedro Feliz:

A: First off, because he just signed as a free agent, the Giants can't trade Feliz until midseason. But if the Giants were to agree to a straight-up swap of Figgins for Feliz later this season, the Angels probably would do it — Feliz has averaged 21 homers and 87 RBIs over the past three seasons playing half his games in pitcher-friendly AT&T Park, and with Matthews in center and leading off for the Angels, there isn't as big a need for Figgins at the top of the order. Plus, Maicer Izturis could fill Figgins' infield utility role. Feliz has had a sub-.300 on-base percentage in all but one of his six big league seasons, but his power would be a nice addition to the Angels lineup. Problem is, it would take more than Figgins to land Feliz.

After my initial excitement of seeing someone say that it would be possible to get something of value for Feliz, I remembered that it is Chone Figgins. Though he's a good player, he isn't great.

Even if you look at his career year of 2005, he put up a .290/.352/.397. He did steal 62 bases, but it seems that skill set is already available in abundance at Mays Field. What's scary is that last year he went .267/.336/.376. The last two years he's had nearly 80 more strikeouts than walks, which doesn't bode well for a speed player with no power. Though if we can work out a three-way deal where we can exchange Chone for almost anything else, maybe Sabean can find something interesting at the break.

And If you happen to be in Birmingham, Ala., Jan. 25, (really, who isn't this time of year?) Will Clark will be speaking in town with Bo Jackson. Though the tickets are $150 bucks. I've never seen Clark speak in public, but I would imagine it would be pretty entertaining.

Raiders Coach update

2007-01-16T08:57:00.000-08:00

The Raiders have moved into the Rooney phase of the coach search, reportedly scheduling interviews with James Lofton and Denny Green. I'm hoping the Green thing is just a pleasantry, but I'm happy to see Davis is bringing in Lofton again this year. He was interviewed last season and was a runner up for the Stanford job. It seems he has something Davis likes and this could be another step to him eventually joining the franchise, but most likely not this year.

As the process drags on, David White at the Chron as a nice cheat sheet on the three main Candidates, Sarkisian, Fassel and Ryan. Basically Sarkisian is the inexperienced one, Fassel the old pro and Ryan the nearest option. Mostly repurposing what we already now, but good to get caught up quickly if you haven't been paying attention.

Raiders coaching update

2007-01-11T10:19:00.000-08:00

To recap:

Steve Sarkisian has interviewed and is being mentioned as the front runner.
Jim Fassell is interviewing today.
The team also interviewed former offensive coordinator Marc Trestman, but for his old job. He was fired at NC State as the offensive coordinator.
Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has been promised an interview, though it may be more as a courtesy, as Al Davis has been said to want to keep the strong defense together.

Mike Martz's name has also been floating around and Davis seems to respect what the guy did in St. Louis. Considering the Raiders problems on offense it seems obvious his name would come up, but as of now I haven't seen anything that says he's been contacted or will be interviewed.

At this point all I'm hoping for is that they have a coach before the draft starts.

Geek Stink Breath

2007-01-11T10:04:00.000-08:00

The NY Daily News is reporting that Barry Bonds tested positive for amphetamines last year. Under the MLB's drug policy, a positive first test results in nothing, not even the player being outed publicly, with a second positive test resulting in a suspension.

If this is true (all parties are playing the "No comment" game), then it doesn't mean that much for the Giants on the field if Bonds can stay off the ... well, everything. As long as he stays clean from no on the league shouldn't have a cause to suspend him.

Which would be true, if he hadn't lied about it first and tried to blame it on Mark Sweeney and possibly lied in front of the grand jury about steroids. This brings up many fond memories and puts the perjury charges back on the front stage.

There isn't much I ask of players for the Giants. 1) Make the club better (looking at you Pedro), and 2) If you are making the club better stay on the field.

I could really care less whether or not Bonds is a good person, whether he leads a virtuous life and tucks in his kids at night. I will never wish anything ill upon him and I would rather he doesn't break any laws, but in the same way I hope the guy in front of me in line at Quiznos yesterday doesn't mug someone or get hit by a bus.

My only stock in the man is that he and I share an interest in his chosen line of work. There I hope he does well.

It's days like today when the rest of the country looks to Giants fans in disbelief, asking 'How can you root for this guy?' As has been stated many times before, I'm not rooting for the back of the jersey, I'm rooting for the front. As much as I hope everyone the Giants hire is a great guy, I know that's not ever going to be the case so I'm not going to worry about it.

But please guys, keep it off the field. I don't want to see Jason Ellison getting any more at bats than he needs to.

JaMaican Me Crazy

2007-01-08T19:59:00.000-08:00

The rumors appear to be that LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell will announce Wednesday that he is foregoing his senior season to enter the NFL Draft. Just as quickly there’s talk that the Raiders already have their sights on him.

While in most cases it would premature to say a team without a coach could possibly already have a draft board put together, Al Davis is not most cases.

But as the Raiders make progress with any number of USC coaches, it seems as if this year may be different than in the past. You see, this is 2007. Last time this happened it was 2006. Big difference, as the seven is straight and six has that little curly thing.

But I’m excited to see the media debate every minute from now until April whether the Raiders should take Russell or Quinn, and then until preseason who was actually a better pick and …

Really, there is a finite amount of knowledge about both players, which will be added to only slightly between now and the draft. Yes, we’ll get “official” times in the 40 and any number of obstacle courses, brain teasers, standardized tests, endurance tests, driving tests and sudoku puzzles, but what will that really tell us, besides where that last damned three was supposed to go?

How long has it been since Vince Young’s wonderlic test? And what did that show anyway? The only thing I’m looking at right now is that Russell is bigger and faster, meaning he has a better chance of A) Running away from the defensive lineman breathing down his neck, and B) Being able to take a pounding day in and day out. Both A and B will be realities if he goes to the Raiders so it would be smart to take that into account when choosing a quarterback.

But every off-season with the Raiders is an adventure. I can feel myself becoming numb to it all. I’m sitting here trying to think of a situation so absurd that it couldn’t possibly be believed in the sarcasm-less internets, and I can’t.

No matter what happens, as long as it looks good in practice it will be fine with me.

Duck Futter

2007-01-08T10:13:00.000-08:00

Now, this may be mainly a Giants blog, but I’ve slipped some Raiders posts in occasionally as well. And now I’m going to add an adopted team of mine, the Oregon Ducks.

I graduated from the UO in June. It’s the reason I find myself in Oregon right now. Still, I didn’t really start getting into the teams until recently. I’ve never been good at the whole school spirit thing and it seemed that nostalgia started early for me.

Regardless, my new commitments brought me to Mac Court in Eugene on Saturday for the game against UCLA. No. 1 UCLA. The best-in-the-country Bruins.

The place sold out for the game what must have been years ago and it sounded as if all of those people snuck in a friend with a bullhorn. The only thing it reminded me off was the playoff crowds from the Raiders’ Super Bowl run, if you shoved them all into a box.

There is no suspense to this post. The Ducks pulled out a last second victory, one of the biggest in the history of the program.

It was a great thing to be a part of. I’ve never seen a crowd storm the court in-person, and the general feeling of hysteria the whole time could have rivaled anything those bastards in North Carolina are capable of. The building literally shook all game long.

If this is something the students can keep up I think it will help make Oregon a consistent upper level Pac-10 team. College basketball is all about recruiting, and taking someone on a trip to Mac Court has to be a plus.

A couple of quick notes from the game:

Tajuan Porter will shoot from anywhere, anytime, no matter who is in front of him. And it’s a good thing. He is so effortless and fearless and many other lesses, he adds such a dimension on the court. Ernie Kent and Aaron Brooks both pointed to him as the reason for the turn in the team’s and Brooks’ play this season. It going to be fun to watch him grow.

Adam Zahn is a freakin gamer. He got elbowed in the eye in the first half. He came out because there was so much blood he couldn’t see anymore. He went into the locker room, got four stitches and came out for the last 10 minutes of the game. Unfortunately his uniformed was stained so he had to come out in a name-less number 54.

Now for something completely different

2007-01-05T12:10:00.000-08:00

So, quick personal update. I missed a lot of crazy stuff because I spent the holidays in California with my family. So even though I was actually closer to the teams I write about here, I was further away from the means to write about them. Once I got back I’ve been playing catch-up at work, so less time to write here. But hopefully one of the things I’m busy on will soon be online so I can show the world just how cool I am.

While I was in the Bay Area I was able to go to the Raiders/Chiefs game. In high school I went to every single game (Yes, that is indeed me on the far left there, and we got back into the spirit this year) and I flew down for all the playoff games during the Super Bowl run, but the last few years I haven’t been able to make to many games so that was great.

The big thing I noticed was that Andrew Walter has a big problem with where to hold the ball when he’s setting up to throw. Multiple times I saw him hold the ball below his waist, one of which he fumbled. I have less and less confidence every day that he will ever turn into a real NFL quarterback, though I hope better coaching will help out with that.

Speaking of which, as everyone I’m sure is aware, Art Shell is out once again. When the season ended I wasn’t sure Al Davis would be able to suck it up and admit a mistake so I’m glad he was able to let Shell go. But the Raiders have a horrible track record in picking new coaches, so I have no confidence they will get anyone qualified or do it in a timely matter. Remembering the Bill Callahan and Art Shell hiring processes leads me to assume the coach will be hired in April, the week before the draft and with no credentials beyond a community college. At this point I don’t think Bob Ladouceur would even consider the job.

As for the draft itself, I can only pray they don’t pick Brady Quinn after his performance against LSU. Trying to peg the draft in April, let alone January, is a waste of time unless someone like Reggie Bush is on the board (wait a minute …), so I’m not even going to hazard a guess at this point. Talking to some guys I work with, they all said the Raiders should grab a quarterback with the first pick, either Quinn or LaMarcus Russell. I’m not so sure. As much as a quarterback would help, the team needs so much work that trading down would be better, especially if they can get Russell and a third-round pick for someone hot after Quinn.

I also believe the offensive line is the key to any team. Concentrating on that this off-season should be the Raiders No.1 priority, either through the draft or free agency. Decent lineman can be found in the later rounds, so stocking up on second and third round picks could be a better bet then pegging next season on a rookie quarterback. That being said, how much would the Raiders have been this year with Vince Young?

We’ll see how this all works out, but I’m not optimistic. As one of my co-workers said, the Raiders may need to just take Pete Carroll with the first pick. Though I’m not sure that would help either, but it couldn’t be worse. Sigh …

Oh I wish I wish I hadn't squished that fish...

2006-12-28T19:06:00.000-08:00

The title doesn't have anything specific to do with the Giants signing Barry Zito, but the general feeling of regret still remains.

There are plenty of places to read why signing a pitcher to a long-term deal is disastrous, why Zito isn't an elite pitcher and why this will blow up in the Giants collective face. I will not endorse any of these thoughts, though I recognize he is King Mediocre and the title alone is worth $10 million a year in royalty fees.

I just wanted to let everyone know that Bary Zito is actually Shawn Estes. It's true. Young hot pitchers reliant on devastating curve balls who saw that curve ball become less than stellar and never returned to the former glory.

For Estes that meant he became a fifth starter/never-heard-from-again. But Zito was always a a better pitcher, so when he lost his curve ball (oh, I don't know, around here) it didn't hurt him as much as Estes. Zito has gotten some of the snap back since 2004, but I've never seen it like it was. Still, that Estes-Zito connection was made in my head and it will never go away.

So congratulations Peter Magowan. You just paid $126 million dollars for Shawn Estes+. Have fun with that.

Someday we'll all look back on this and laugh, part X XVII

2006-12-20T00:52:00.000-08:00

The Giants have officially signed Ryan Klesko.

I am not horrified by this. The $1.75 base ssems a little high to me for a guy who is 35 and missed almost all of last season. But really, who else on the Giants is a better first baseman? Rich Aurilia? Mike Sweeney? Pedro Feliz?

In his last full season he put up a .248/.358/.418, good for 6 RC/G. Last year Feliz had 4.1. Klesko could have slugged around .330 and still been more productive than Feliz. Plus, he would have had a slugging percentage lower than his OBP, which is pretty freaking cool in a shattering the space/time continuum sort of way.

Not that Klesko will be replacing Feliz, but it's the sort of benchmark the Giants have on the corner infield. So even if Klesko has almost zero power (or exactly zero power, as I've already proved conclusively with science. Yea, science), as long as he can keep his OBP up he can be better than what we have, which is really the whole point of getting new players anyway.

Add some time spelling Bonds in left and hopefully platooning him, those positives could rise and we could have a better-than-Niekro on our hands. And if he actually can hit, he becomes a Proven Winner at the Deadline, which could net the Giants ... something other than Ryan Klesko. But really, what do they have to lose?

We sit and tremble in anticipation.

A Brief Yet Triumphant Post

2006-12-19T08:37:00.000-08:00

Just a short post today, as this is my last day of work before Christmas and I have to finish a week's worth of work.

Apparently the Armando Benitez to Florida trade talks are breaking down. Oh well, it was a beautiful dream while it lasted.

At this point I don't know if Benitez's value can get any lower without him being declared legally dead. There is most likely no way the Giants can get anything of value without paying almost his entire salary.

The best option may just be to wait it out and hope he does well in the first few months of the season and dump him the minute anyone offers a semi-decent warm body, preferably younger than 25.

It's risky as there is no assurance he'll make it to spring training let alone a few months into the season. But if he does make it, the market will be so much better the Giants may actually get something of value rather than a straight dump. And if they're going to be paying him either way, they might as well get something for their money.

Young players can be exchanged for goods and services

2006-12-17T23:26:00.000-08:00

Homer: Aw, twenty dollars! I wanted a peanut!
Homer's Brain: Twenty dollars can buy many peanuts!
Homer: Explain how.
Homer's Brain: Money can be exchanged for goods and services!
Homer: Woo-hoo!

For quite a while now, Brian Sabean has been looking for peanuts.

With the Giants myopic management style, the team has been without young talent to use in trades or god forbid, develop and put out onto the field, for the better part of this century.

Last year the Giants used 44 players, 18 of which the team originally drafted. That means 3/5 of all the players the Giants used were picked in some other way, be it trades, free agency or waivers.

Looking closer, the situation was even worse. Many of those players (The Justin Knoedlers and Travis Ishikawas of the world) were up for only a short time or didn’t produce much when actually given a shot. Using win shares and runs created, we can get a rough (very rough) idea of how important those 18 players were to the team.

In 2006, the Giants drafted accounted for only 23 percent of the runs created (RC and PRC) and 16% of the Giants win shares. That was actually down from 23 percent of win shares last season. The big contributors were Matt Cain (12 WS, 86 PRC), Noah Lowry (7 WS, 55 PRC), Kevin Correia (6 WS, 37 PRC), and Brad Hennessey (6 WS, 34 PRC).

Looking at where the production came from for the Giants in 2006, it becomes painfully clear how not being able to develop and play or trade young talent has affected the make up of team.

Type	WS	WS %	RC	RC%
Draft	37	16%	285	23%
FA	137	61%	691	55%
Trade	52	23%	290	23%

The vast majority of the worth for the Giants came from one source, free agent pickups. Now, as he always doess, Barry Bonds has a huge affect on this type of analysis. He’s counted as a free agent pickup and was the most productive member of the team in 2006.

In 2005 he accounted for only 2 win shares. But that didn’t change the chart much.

Type	WS	WS %
Draft	52	23%
FA	129	57%
Trade	37	16%
WA	9	4%

Now lets look at the Giants closest rival and probably the antithesis of Sabean’s management style, the Oakland A’s.

In 2006 the A’s used 40 players, with 12 being drafted by the team, Once again, this number makes much more sense in context. Here’s the A’s production chart for 2006:

Type	WS	WS %	RC	RC%
Draft	99	35%	489	35%
FA	45	16%	168	12%
Trade	124	44%	680	49%
Purchased	0	0%	3	0%
Waivers	11	4%	45	3%

Billy Beane needed only 45 win shares from free agents to get the A’s to the ALCS, and that’s counting the 22 from Frank Thomas. Nick Swisher and Barry Zito were the most valuable draftees and Danny Haren and Jason Kendall the most valuable tradees (a word Blogger is telling me doesn’t exist – until now). Even Haren and Kendall were acquired for player the A’s originally drafted (Mark Mulder) or traded for (Mark Redman).

I think the important thing for me in looking at the A’s is how much they relied on trades to build the team. It is directly connected to developing young players, as the Haren trade shows. They were able to get everything they could out of Mulder of minimal cost and then get a decent replacement in trae, who they’ll be able to milk at the minimum for a while if they can’t get a long-tern deal donw.

Working with young player is always a crap shoot, as the Tim Hudson trade and names such as Ainsworth and the Ghost of J.R. Phillips prove, but is free agency any better? Edgardo Alfonzo, Armando Benitez and others show that free agency can lead to mistakes as well, and ones that can cost a team many more millions of dollars than any amateur not represented by Scott Boras.

So please Sabean, you have six draft picks in the first and sandwich round coming up. Use them well. Pay the players and be patient. I’ll wait here until the team is ready, I promise.

Those we may be seeing a lot of

2006-12-13T12:34:00.000-08:00

Looking at the 2007 Giants bullpen at this point is like that nautical saying, I forget what it is exactly, but it has something to do with seats on a boat.

The cast of characters is mainly familiar, though some new faces could show up at any moment. Just one of them won’t be Eric Gagne.

Incumbents
Armando Benitez: Until Mando gets traded he is the closer because he led the team’s relievers last year in dollars per year. His K/9 has been steadily declining since 1999. Even in his breakout year in 2004 his rate dropped from 9.25 to 8.01. But the Big difference between his ’03, ’04 and his ’05, ’06 was the home runs. His HR/9 jumped from sub-0.80 to over 1.40.

Vinnie Chulk: The Chulk in Toronto and the Chulk in San Francisco last year were two different people. His walks per game jumped from 1.8 to 6.0 after the trade and his HR/9 dropped from 1.44 to 0.79. His major minor league numbers suggest he’s good for around 7.5 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9.

Kevin Correia: Had career bests last year in HR/9, K/9 and BB/9. He made four appearances of at least three innings and 8 of at least two. I’m not confident he can repeat 2006, but he has value as a long relief guy.

Brian Wilson: Had a BABIP of .335 last year. While not outrageous one can probably expect him to give up fewer hit next year, though that won’t help his six walks a game for the Giants last year. But his ability to prevent home runs carried over to the majors so if he can add a little control could definitely be an asset in 2007.

Steve Kline: As a LOOGY Kline has decent splits, not allowing a home run to a lefty last year. Still, he’s 34 and not likely to get any better.

Also on the 40-man: Jack Taschner, Billy Sadler, Scott Munter, Tim Worrell (likely done) and starters Brad Hennessey and Jonathan Sanchez (see this post).

Outsourcing
David Riske: Spent last year with both color Sox and 2005 with Indians. He’s put up an ERA+ above 120 every year since 2002. From’02-04 he was striking out a batter an inning, but now that’s down to 5.73/9 last year. I think his ERAs the last few years are a little lower than they should be and I don’t expect him to be great if the Giants pick him up, but he should be better than the internal options.

Doug Brocail: A groundball pitcher excellent at preventing home runs and his FIP numbers have always been lower than his ERA. Underwent two angioplasties last year and didn’t make an appearance until June. I think he could be a good pickup even if he would be another Padre el Norte.

Prognosis
If things stand as they are, Benitez, Kline, Chulk and Correia are already in. That leaves two or three spots, most likely one free agent and a choice between whoever does well in spring training. I see the Giants signing Riske and then filling out the roster with Wilson and whoever doesn't make it between Hennessey and Sanchez.

Now that I’ve said that it’s almost a certainty it won’t happen. But what they hell, it’s worth a shot. And if I’m right I’ll just edit out this part out.

Rotational Analysis

2006-12-12T11:02:00.000-08:00

With the signing of Barry Bonds the Giants have what seems to be a pretty finalized lineup, as terrifying as that may be. Rich Aurilia is a great guy, but that wont help him improve on last year’s .257/.307/.410 line from first basemen.

As Sabean deflects attacks over the signing, he must know move and finalize a pitching staff that has already lost its most productive reliever (Mike Stanton) and starter (Jason Schmidt).

Right now the Giants have three starters penciled in; Matt Morris, Matt Cain and Noah Lowry. Those three threw 557.7 of the Giants 982.2 starters-innings last year.

That still leaves 424 innings unaccounted for with only two spots open to take them up. So it seems that unless the Giants can get two pitchers they are sure will eat up over 200 innings apiece, the Giants bullpen will be coming in earlier and more often to clean up a staff missing it’s best pitcher.

But with Cain throwing 188 IP and Lowry at only 159.1 IP, there may be hope that these two may eat up some more on their own. Lowry pitched 204 innings in 2005, so it might be reasonable to expect at least another 20 IP. Still, it will be tough to replace Schmidt’s 213.3.

Options
The in-house replacements seem to be Brad Hennessey and Jonathan Sanchez as Bochy has said he prefers to keep Kevin Correia in the bullpen. Both Hennessey and Sanchez could be moved to the bullpen themselves if the Giants fill one or both the rotation spots with trades or free agents.

Hennessey is below-average in both K/9 and BB/9, with his strikeouts dropping from 4.87 to 3.81 last year. His WHiP was much lower in 2006, but so was his BABIP, so I’m not convinced that was anything more than luck in a small sample size. He isn’t really anything more than a fifth started who might be able to eat some innings at league average in a best-case scenario.

Sanchez on the other hand has the potential to turn into something decent. He doesn’t give up a lot of homeruns and has the potential to put up decent strikeout numbers, averaging 11.83 per nine in the minors.

Outsourcing
The out-of-town options the Giants have been linked to aren’t special. Jeff Suppan, Bruce Chen and Russ Ortiz aren’t going to inspire fear in anyone except the team they are under contract to.

Suppan is obviously the best in the bunch, with ERA+ of 108, 119 and 103 the last three seasons, though his K/BB was below the league average each of those. He survives with good control and few strikeouts and is your basic league-average innings-eater.

But the part that will make whatever team he signs with scream is that piece of paper he’ll be signing. Getting Suppan -- in theory – is not a bad idea. He does have value and over the course of 30 starts can help a team to a few wins. But there are better options than what will be around $10 million per year for four years.

Chen and Ortiz are both castoffs who will come cheaper but will be a much higher risk to flame out completely than Suppan. Chen gives up a lot of home runs but keeps everything else pretty much in check. The Giants best hope from him would be a repeat of his 2005, when he went 13-10 with a 3.83 ERA for the Orioles in 32 starts.

Ortiz’s agent has said nothing is wrong with his client, though the numbers would beg to differ. Since 2004 he’s thrown almost one walk per strikeout, with a K/BB at 1.07. And it seems he wants a guaranteed major league contract, not just a spring training invite. This seems like too much, even for Sabean. Anything more than a minor league contract for him is completely unnecessary. Even if three other teams are asking for him, there is no reason to ever raise an offer to someone like Ortiz, at least until our war with the robots thins out the available pool of starters.

But of course if these don’t pan out there is always David Wells. The pitcher has expressed interest in the Giants and the team may be just desperate enough to try it, even though Wells almost challenged Bonds to a fight over that whole steroids thing (so glad that blew over…). Boomer has great walk numbers and keeps the ball on the ground, but with his age and lack of Ks he, so like many of the other options, is a great chance to get more average rather than better.

Prognosis
With the front three set up, the Giants are set to dumpster-dive for two more starters or allow either Hennessey or Sanchez to fill a rotation spot.

I think Sanchez should start in the pen and move into a starter’s role later in the season. He’s never thrown more than 125 innings in a season and it would give him more time to get used to the major league game. His BB/9 numbers were pretty bad in Fresno (4.94) and with the Giants (5.18), so I’m hoping that’s something that can be worked out with more time. Both of those stints were for less than 40 IP, so I'm not too worried. Yet.

Hennessey isn’t a great option, having almost no upside, but he can hold down a spot until Sanchez is ready.

Other than that I’m all for taking a flyer on Chen and hoping for the best from the other three. If I thought this team had a shot I would say go after someone like Suppan to get the extra couple of wins, but at this point it’s not worth the contract. In 2005 Suppan had fewer win shares than Chen, so it's possible he may actually be close to Suppan next season. I'm not really expecting it, but at millions less for a short-term deal it might be worth a shot.

The elephant in the room is Barry Zito. The Giants have almost no shot at him, but everyone has been saying all the right things for a while now. If he ends up in San Francisco I suspect Hennessey goes to the rotation, Sanchez the bullpen and then someone like Jack Taschner fills the extra spot.

I’ll be taking a look at the bullpen in the next few days.

OOO Rebay!

2006-12-08T10:41:00.000-08:00

Jose Uribe has died.

If you take a look at the banner for this blog, you’ll notice four baseball cards in the lower right corner. That first one is of Jose Uribe.

I was six years old the last year he started for the Giants, but I can still remember going to games and chanting OOO Rebay!!! as loud as I could. Hearing it announced over the PA when he came to bat was always special. The inflection and enthusiasm in that call made every plate appearance an event to an impressionable five-year-old the year they went to the World Series.

Uribe to Thompson to Clark is my Tinkers to Evers to Chance. His name is a checkpoint in my mental map of baseball history.

I may have more of a baseball connection to Robby Thompson and Will Clark because they stuck around a little while longer and I have more concrete memories of them playing. But Uribe has always been My Giant. He was the first player that I as a fan took ownership of. I recognized something that I liked about the team and the game and decided to hold on to it.

And I still do now.

Even as I got older and he left the team, I still remembered what he gave to me as a fan. Uribe will always be one of my favorite Giants and one of my best baseball memories.

I’m sorry to see him go.

EORT

2006-12-06T21:49:00.000-08:00

I’d like to introduce a new stat, one I’ve created recently. Today even.

It’s called EORT (Evil Over Replacement Team). Unlike many metrics it’s a team stat, zero is the best possible score and it’s not meant to be used by observers but by players, specifically free agents attempting to pick a new team.

EORT is an incredibly useful stat. Like VORP, it is dependent on a player’s situation, such as hometown proximity and team payroll. The higher a team’s EORT, the more a player signing there will distress the original team’s fan base.

Some players have inherently more EORT value surrounding them than other players, often correlated to career win shares or years with one team. Johnny Damon was an example of a player with a lot of potential suitors with high EORT value. He ended up choosing the New York Yankees, with a season high 59.7 EORT value, one of the highest EORT signing in decades.

Wednesday was the highest EORT signing of this off-season, as Jason Schmidt of the San Francisco Giants signed a 3 year, $37 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Dodgers/Schmidt EORT wasn’t as high as Yankees/Damon, but at 39.3 far surpassed the other deals already struck this off-season.

The main factors were Schmidt’s high win shares with the Giants, the fact that Dodgers GM Ned Colletti recently worked for the Giants and the Rivalry Quotient (RQ) between the two teams. Dodgers executives are also known to disembowl puppies in front of small children and base their inner-city scholarship program on a fight-to-the-death rather than academic achievment.

One has to imagine Schmidt was aware of the Dodgers EORT, especially with the Mariners low 1.2 EORT as the next best offer. But as is often the case, Schmidt seems to have taken the highest offer over the best EORT, just as Alfonso Soriano signed the best deal with the Cubs even though they are stuck in a never-ending cycle of despair.

Morning Hits

2006-12-06T08:20:00.000-08:00

A few things gleaned from the reason I'll be late to work...

The Florida Marlins may be interested in Armando Benitez. Fantastic. The more the merrier. I don’t think the Giants will end up with Mike Jacobs out of it, but getting young talent for Benitez may be worth $5 million of Mando’s contract at this point.

From Andrew Baggarly, on the consequences of signing Ted Lilly or Jeff Suppan.:

Even if they are able to back-load a deal, any of those upper-level starters would exhaust at least half of the $20 million or so the Giants have left to spend under their anticipated $85 million payroll.

And if the Giants give in to Bonds' demands to be paid a figure similar to the $18 million he made last season, they would already be over budget with other needs to fill.

This seems to make a trade more likely, though where it’s going to come from at this point is anyone’s guess.

Busting out the Baggarly, two-times quick:

The Giants are expected to sign Ryan Klesko as a left-handed bench player and part-time outfielder, a source said. Klesko also was talking with Orioles officials, but those discussions have cooled.

I’m starting to warm to the idea of Klesko as a platoon player. Last year’s injury scares me, but in 2005 he put up a .262/.373/.464 against right-handers. Last year Giants first-baseman put up a total-line of .257/.307/.410, so any help would be appreciated. Last year’s shoulder surgery is still a concern, but if it lowers the price enough he could be better than what we have and a steal for this offseason.

Zito and Schmidt

2006-12-05T21:26:00.000-08:00

I really never thought I would even have to consider writing this post. But there it is, in dead black pixels, staring at me from my computer screen. The Giants are pursueing Barry Zito.

It is far too early to start picturing Zito at Mays Field, no matter who the Giants end up adding to the rotation (and they will add at least one new face), he will be compared to Jason Schmidt. And really, we have to have outrage prepared and well researched by the time any deal is announced.

First stop, stats courtesy of the invaluable Harball Times:

Jason Schmidt

Year	Tm	Lg	PRC	RA	FIP	ERA+	LD%	GB%	IF/F	K/G	BB/G
2004	SF	NL	125	3.36	2.78	135	16.5%	44.6%	14.1%	10.7	3.3
2005	SF	NL	63	4.71	3.77	95	21.3%	38.3%	19.3%	8.4	4.3
2006	SF	NL	103	3.97	3.93	127	19.3%	37.4%	9.0%	7.8	3.5

Barry Zito

Year	Tm	Lg	PRC	RA	FIP	ERA+	LD%	GB%	IF/F	K/G	BB/G
2004	OAK	AL	89	4.90	4.57	100	18.8%	37.0%	16.4%	6.9	3.4
2005	OAK	AL	99	4.18	4.37	110	20.8%	41.8%	19.3%	6.9	3.6
2006	OAK	AL	105	4.03	4.94	118	16.5%	38.2%	13.3%	6.2	4.0

The big thing to notice is the K rates. Schmidt has been in a steady decline but was still better than Zito last year. This is keeping with both players' careers. Schmidt's career averge is about a whole strikeout better than Zito.

Zito has been staying pretty steady over the last few years. He was over 7 K/9 his first three seasons, but hasn't got over that mark since, falling into a consistent 6.9 career average.

But what troubles me is the walk rate. Zito has done up each of the last three years, over which time his K/BB dropped from 2.01 to 1.53. And besides 2003 to 2004 it's dropped every year since 2001.

Schmidt's K/BB fell from 2003 to 2005, going from 4.52 to 1.94. He had a slight recorrection last year at 2.25, right at his career mark.

It's hard to say Zito is in a decline at 28, though the walk rates aren't encouraging. Schmidt had a great return to form last year, but at 33 he is obviously more likely to decline over the length of a four year deal than Zito is (though his deal is likely to be six years). Zito is also more consistent, mainly due to Schmidt's injury problems the last few years. If I had to pick one for the next for years without money involved it would be Zito all the way as the younger and less injury prone option.

But is above-average consistency worth $100 million over six years? Zito is not a Johan Santana, Roger Clemens type-ace. He has incredibly bad games quite often, with five games giving up at least six runs last year alone.

I see Zito more like the 115 ERA+ pitcher he's been the last two years than the 169 ERA+ pitcher he was when he when the Cy Young in 2002. And though his curveball is one of the best in baseball, he doesn't always seem to know how to use it. Sometimes it reminds me of Shawn Estes in his decline, though Estes at his best was barely what Zito is now. Still, the 'Why isn't it working?' face is the same. I see him more as a reliable No. 2.

I really don't know if I would feel comfortable with the Giants investing so much in someone like Zito, especially since it will mean the end of Barry Bonds. As much as I hate it, he is the best hitter still on the market and if the Giants can sign him to a one year deal has the possibility of being a decent value.

If a Lowry signing means Noah Lowry is gone to Seattle or Boston in a deal for a power hitter the water becomes murkier. Here's thw two scenarios, deal amounts and lengths and estimated performance.

Secenario 1: Lowry, $14/4 (105 ERA+) and Bonds $18/1 (140 OPS+)
Secenario 2: Zito, $100/6 (117 ERA +) and Sexson, $28/2 (124 OPS+)

The Bonds estimate is if he continues to decline and Sexson is if he stays steady.

In Scenario 1 the Giants commit around $22 million a year and Scenario 2 around $31 million. Would that extra $10 million buy the Giants enough wins to stay competitive? I don't think so, but the upside seems higher if Zito can return to a semi-dominant form and the Giants find a way to replace the production lost in the drop off of Bonds to Sexson. How they do that with less money will be difficult, but may I suggest starting at third base?

And I just watched "Eraserhead," too

2006-12-05T01:36:00.000-08:00

OK, I feel like I’m losing my mind.

Just a few days ago the Giants were set to waddle semi-harmlessly through a terrible off-season. Rich Aurilia, Dave Roberts, possibly Mark Loretta. Matched with Kevin Frandsen, Omar Vizquel and possibly Barry Bonds, it was a horrible lineup but one that would be almost completely gone in two years and allowed the Giants to maybe pick up draft picks from key departees Jason Schmidt and Ray Durham.

But no. Sabean didn’t want to leave bad enough alone. First he added Durham. Not a bad move at two years and $16 million. He wont hit like he did last year but I have no ill will for the guy and he still has the possibility of being an above-average second baseman. Even in 2005 he was top 10 in the majors for runs created by a second baseman.

Aurilia isn’t a terrible signing at two years, $8 million. He can play every infield position and though, like Durham, wont likely recreate last year, had the possibility of at least being a replacement-level third baseman, something the Giants haven’t had since David Bell. He also gave us the ability to pick up talent at any infield position without having to worry about replacing someone.

But then came the sign. Like locusts descending on town, you could tell it was only the start of something terrible, the first part of a plague of epic proportions to punish us forever for our sin of rooting for the San Francisco Giants.

Sabean decided that The Worst Third Baseman in Major League Basebal l, Happy, Fleas, was to be resigned. And not just resigned. He is to get over $5 million to make my favorite baseball team -- the one I have followed since I could cognitively reason, the one I braved an earthquake during a World Series for, the one I stuck with through 1996 for, the one I cheered for Shawon Dunston and Jose Vizciano for (twice) – objectively and subjectively worse.

In 2006 he had the lowest runs created per game of any qualified third baseman in major league baseball. He also had the lowest OBP, OPS, GPA, pitches per plate appearance and fifth lowest SLG.

I am required by law to state that he did have 5 fielding win shares, leading all third baseman, and ranked third in David Pinto’s Probalistic Model of Range.

Now I’m hearing rumors that Noah Lowry is on the block in a possible trade for Richie Sexson or the signing of Ryan Klesko is imminent. And as of now Aurilia is the starting first baseman.

With the winter meetings underway, the rumors have been coming fast and furious. Already the Giants have been linked to Sexson, Klesko, Adam Dunn, Geoff Jenkins, and Pat Burrell.

The likelihood of any of those deals happening is probably almost zero. As was stated at USS Mariner, the Sexson deal would be the fallback for the Giants, Mariners and Red Sox in the Manny Ramirez deal, so no one is going to work hard on getting that done. I assume the other mentions will go the way of David Weathers.

Right now it’s all a little much for me to take in. So quickly a season that seemed to promise a few new faces and players born after Nixon turned into the same old Sabean team, full of scrappy 36-year-old role players. No Frandsen, no Todd Linden. Not that they are the answer, but they seemed like the promised shinny ball for all of us who have sat so patiently while we watched the other kids take their Mecha-Chris Youngs and play across the street. When do we get a home-grown starter?

What’s left for the Giants? Another starter wouldn’t hurt, the bullpen seems thin and obviously no one on the roster is a threat for over 30 home runs unless Bonds resigns. Sure, the Twins made it work for years, but the Giants ain’t the Twins.

I hope Sabean leaves the winter meetings with the pitching staff intact. Young pitching is always at a premium and trading Lowry for a middle-aged cleanup hitter just because the team is lacking power is absurd. I think they’re better off hanging on to Lowry until a move like that could actually make a difference and they have a better idea how the Sanchezs and Lincecums of the world will progress.

The bullpen does not need a high-priced set up man. This isn’t a team that will be trying to hold off a rally in game seven of the 2007 World Series. Taking fliers on anyone will be better in the long term (and that’s the only term we’ve got). These are all strategies that have been pounded to death in other places, but it just feels better to have typed it out myself.

And in theory I’m not against adding Sexson or Dunn. My thinking on the corners right now is ‘Are they better than Feliz? Excellent, sign them.’ Each of them is a full two runs better per game than Feliz with the bat. I could see Dunn being just as infuriating to watch and he is a black-hole defensively, but at this point anything might be better than another year of Happy.

And as much as I love sifting through the hundreds of rumors I get sent to my inbox everyday, maybe it would just be easier on me to wait this off-season out and emerge in February to check out the 40-man.

Or maybe the shock of seeing Ryan Klesko pencilied in as our starting first-baseman would be too much to take without adequate warning.

Giants have interest in Bengie

2006-12-01T09:10:00.000-08:00

Not much time available today, so I just want to point to this Chron article. Apparently the Giants have interest in one of the Flying Molinas, specifically Bengie Molina, recently of the Blue Jays. The article doesn't mention money, but Molina did have a $7.5 mil option dropped by the Jays, so there and up would seem to be the only conclusion.

The article also mentions that the Giants wont offer Barry Bonds arbitration because if he accepts he could get over $20 mil, compared to the $14.4 mil minimum he could accept if they don't. So, is a first round pick worth nearly $6 mil? One of the many questions that will be answered around 9 p.m. tonight as the arbitration deadline passes. Wow, it's almost like waiting for Christmas morning, huh?

Bochy the player magnet

2006-11-30T09:18:00.000-08:00

It seems that Bruce Bochy is already paying dividends for the Giants. Four of the free agents that the team is pursuing -- Rich Aurilia, Dave Roberts, Mark Loretta and David Weathers -- have specifically said that one of the reasons they want to play for the Giants is to be with Bochy. Weathers hasn't even played for him before. From the Chron:

"His whole career he's wanted to play for Bochy," Horwits said. "Dave has known a lot of guys who have played for him, and he has a lot of respect for him.

Obviously these aren't the marque free agents available, but with so many spots open the Giants need all the help they can get. If Bochy can bring in roster fillers and late relievers, more power to him. I wonder if this was something Sabean was anticipating when they hired him?

Sickels Prospect Ratings

2006-11-30T00:44:00.000-08:00

I'm probably the last person on Earth to link to this, but what the Hell. John Sickels has released his preliminary Top 20 Prospects for the Giants.

Time Lincecum was No. 1, followed by Jonathan Sanchez and Marcus Sanders. Sickels was also high on Billy Sadler.

His sum for the organization was this:

The Giants have some interesting relief arms after Lincecum and Sanchez, but have shown little ability to develop hitters with plate discipline or plus offensive potential.

Yep, that sounds like the Giants. Someday there will be a homegrown third baseman (hopefully Durham and Schmidt can help that along). Until that day we can brag about our young pitchers and stare with longing at the Diamondback's dugout.

Can it be done?

2006-11-29T11:28:00.000-08:00

Monday marks the start of the winter meetings. Many top free agents, such as Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito, remain unsigned and a Manny Ramirez trade seems looming on the horizon (even more than usual).

There's plenty of Hot Stove left, but even if the Giants went after and added a big name, would it even matter, or is it too late for Bran Sabean to pull a winner out of his trash?

The whining on Sabean’s lack of action this off-season has reached a pitch only dogs, dolphins and Mariah Carrey can hear. Everyone just wants him to sign someone, anyone, who hit at least 20 home runs last year and apparently Rich Aurilia doesn’t count.

I considered myself above the fray until yesterday, when I saw the Yankess had won the posting for Japanese pitcher Kei Igawa, with the Giants not even bidding. I had been excited to hear the Giants were interested in him, as it seemed to show they were looking anywhere they could for talent. With Sabean targeting a very specific demographic for years now (insert AARP joke), it seemed refreshing to hear he would put up $10 million just to talk to someone under 30.

Even after I saw the $26 million bid price, I was a little disappointed they didn’t try. Not as disappointed as I would have been if they had won, but still a tiny twinge of defeat. For the first time I realized what it must have felt like for all those other fans when Alfonso Soriano signed with the Cubs.

But with the insane money going to players like Soriano, Carlos Lee, Juan Pierre -- Hell, everyone who has signed a contract this year – the most intelligent moves have been to stay put and wait for a deal that won’t destroy a club in two years.

Still, even though none of those players would have instantly made the Giants competitive, they wouldn’t have hurt for next year. And with the talent pool thinning every day, do the Giants still have a chance to field a competitive team in 2007?

Assuming Bonds resigns and the rumored deals go through, that would leave the Giants with a lineup of Bonds, Dave Roberts and Randy Winn in the outfield, Aurilia, Kevin Frandsen, Mark Loretta and Omar Vizquel in the infield, with Eliezer Alfonzo behind the plate.

But that’s if the Giants do nothing between now and spring training after signing Bonds. Right now it looks as if the Padres or Dodgers might be the front runners for Ramirez, and J.D. Drew is going to the Red Sox. With Lee and Soriano gone the remaining power hitters might be limited to Aubrey Huff – who will probably be overpaid –, Craig Wilson and possibly Morgan Ensberg through trade.

Even with one of those options, the lineup is definitely not scary. Bonds, Vizquel and Roberts were the only players linked to the Giants to have an OBP higher than .350, and those last two were 15 points above their career averages. At 32, Winn is the youngest player outside of Alfonzo and Frandsen, so one can’t expect improvement from many of them.

Will it be worth it to overpay someone like Huff or drop young talent for Ensberg? Only if the Giants pitching can prevent enough runs that four runs a game can keep the Giants in the NL West race. The strength of the Giants should be pitching in the next few years, with Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Tim Lincecum being prepped.

For 2007 though, the Giants are looking at a rotation of Cain, Noah Lowry, Matt Morris and possibly Brad Hennessey or Kevin Correia filling the other spots. The most exciting pitcher linked to the Giants has been Ted Lilly, who has said he wants to come back to the Bay Area. He has the potential to pitch better than Morris, with a 106 ERA+ over the last three years as compared to Morris’ 94. Still, not that exciting. But a slightly above-average pitcher is better than nothing.

The Giants can hope for improvements from young starters Lowry and Cain, though. Both have room to grow after 2006. Especially Lowry, who had the worst season of his career, which was still only slightly below average with a 95 ERA+. Cain was ninth in rookie VORP in a very deep year, finishing behind names such as Liriano, Verlander, Papelbon and Zumaya.

That still leaves the bullpen anchored by Armando Benitez, with Vinny Chulk and whoever doesn’t make the rotation behind him. David Weathers has also been brought up recently as a candidate for the set up role. While his 136 ERA+ and 1.29 WHIP would be appreciated, it would take big improvements from guys like Brian Wilson to make the bullpen a strength.

Could the Giants compete without adding another hitter and staying pat with a rotation of Morris, Can, Lowry, Lilly and Hennessey? In most divisions no, but the NL West has been such a den of mediocrity it’s hard to say, especially if the Giants get Bonds back and he hits more like he did in September (.299/.405/.657) than May (.239/.432/.423) and some of the young pitchers improve. And as the 83-win Cardinals showed, all you have to do is get into the playoffs and hope things happen.

This off-season I have gone back and forth between wanting to see the Giants make another run and wanting them to blow the team up as quickly as possible to start rebuilding. But they might be able to do both by reaping draft picks by offering Jason Schmidt and Ray Durham arbitration, playing .500 ball and then waiting for breaks.

Just Manny Being Barry

2006-11-27T10:34:00.000-08:00

Manny Ramirez to the Giants rumors. Oh, I love the Hot Stove.
The Chron article mentions the Red Sox need for a shortstop, though it said that Omar Vizquel is untouchable. The other options would be prospects.

Any deal that happens would mean that Ramirez replaces Barry Bonds. Ignoring the fact that getting Ramirez would mean comparing him to the combined production lost by whoever we trade to get him and Bonds, straight up who will be better over the next few seasons, Bonds or Ramirez?

Fielding
Let's start here, as the low point for each player. Ramirez has been knocked for years for shoddy defense and would have nowhere to hide in the National League. Bonds is a once-great fielder who has been hobbled by injuries to his knees.

Last year is the only real comparable year, as it was the first where Bonds played consistently (for him) on the bionic knees. In 130 games apiece, Ramirez recorded 2.1 fielding win shares to Bonds 2.3. According to David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range, Ramirez was the worst Left fielder in baseball, while Bonds was merely average.

While I haven't seen Ramirez play a lot, what I have seen is horrendous. Bonds on the other hand is a good fielder in an old man's body. Last year he looked terrible in the field but often got to spots one wouldn't expect. He still has great instincts and make good reads, allowing him to get to balls someone in his condition shouldn't be able to.

Hitting
Now this is why both of these men get paid tens of millions of dollars every year. A few years ago it would be silly to even imagine any player who could eclipse Bonds, but after the last two seasons not only is it feasible but necessary considering his age and health.

Bonds didn't have a Bonds-like season in 2006, but he was still the best hitter on the Giants. He led the league with a .454 OBP and still slugged .545. But compared to the .812 SLG of 2004, his last healthy season, Bonds is obviously not the player he was. That was evidenced by his .270 batting average, his lowest since 1999.

But we're not comparing Bonds to himself, but Manny. Last year he hit .321/.439/.619, better than Barry in every category except OBP. That gave him 2.2 more batting win shares than Bonds.

But looking ahead, the two players seem headed in opposite path is power. Bonds seems like he will always hold an edge in OBP, though it remains to be seen if he can keep up his absolutely disgusting walk rates once pitchers and managers stop giving him free passes all the time. Which should happen soon, right?

But Bonds' ISO has been declining steadily since 2004. From 2002-2004 he averaged a .429 ISO, with a high of .450 in 2004. Last year it .275. Ramirez has averaged .301 since 2004, with a variation of .007 between the high and the low.

Overall
While it is inevitable that Ramirez will decline eventually, he seems to be holding steady for the time being a a level Bonds has recently dropped below or equaled to. Remember, Ramirez is still nearly eight years younger than Bonds. Depending what the deal is I wouldn't be upset to exchange Bonds for Manny. If the Giants can trade Vizquel and some minor prospects I would jump at it. Both come with issues and will produce, though I see Ramirez as giving Sabean a little extra to rebuild around over the next three years, assuming Bonds doesn't find a way to improve on 2006.

Flexibility

2006-11-24T23:03:00.000-08:00

It seems that the return of Rich Aurilia is near and as well as the entry of Dave Roberts. The two are the Gary Matthews/Juan Pierre consolation prices. The contracts are supposed to add up to around $36 mil/6, with Aurilia getting $3 mil/3 and Roberts $6 mil/3.

Mark Loretta is also getting closer according to the Chron article above. It said those moves would likely spell an end to Ray Durham and the great Pedro Feliz experiment.

None of the three is what he once was. Loretta has had a huge drop since being injured a few years ago, Roberts' game is based on speed which is deteriorating with age and Giants fans are familiar with the rise and fall and rise of Aurilia. The three are also a combined 104 years old.

The trio isn't going to be mistaken for Soriano or the recently signed Carlos Lee. Aurilia and Loretta have shown some pop in the past but never at those levels and they aren't prime candidates to even continue their current levels. But with so many slots open this off season, no single player was going to keep the 2007 Giants from escaping the Fiasco that is surely coming. This has been in the works for far too long for one $180 mil contract to change it.

Sabean -- if he gets these deals done -- will have accomplished something unique in this year's free agents market. He will have filled three position slots with no more than three-year contracts and less than $10 mil a year per player.

That gives the Giants financial freedom to take on contracts through trade if Sabean goes that route with someone like Pat Burrell. What is often forgotten in the opening "Why wont Sabean Buy Anything?" articles is that all those same writers have a "There's No Flexibility for Mid-season Deals!" template stashed away for February.

But these particular deals give the Giants lineup flexibility as well. Both Loretta and Aurilia can play three infield positions with shortstop already in the capable and dreamy hands of Omar Vizquel. That flexibility gives the Giants the chance to target both corner infield spots in trade.

With the main free agent pieces gone, trades are going to be the Giants best bet. And as contract negotiations break down, injuries occur and other unforeseeables become foreseen, Sabean needs to be able and jump in before the Yankees and Red Sox can figure out how to free up another $23 million for an extension.

This is definitely a lineup influx and open to taking advantage of the markets as they change. What some fans are missing is that the Giants aren't tied down and committed to any one path yet. And while it's exciting to get a Soriano or Lee, the reality is that the Giants are indeed inching closer and closer to the dreaded "R" word. And while no one likes to lose, I'd rather see 60-win season and two 90-win seasons than three 75-win seasons.

Stolen info

2006-11-22T08:57:00.000-08:00

Not much going as I'm prepping to drive down to the Bay Area tomorrow morning and still have some stuff to finish at, but I wanted to pass along this notebook in the CCT and the Merc. The high points:

The Giants are interested in Mark Loretta, as Bruce Bochy made a personal call to the second baseman recently. The article also suggests him as a possible fill at first and third as well.
As has been mentioned elsewhere, the Angels will probably get Gary Matthews Jr. for around 5/$50 mil, leaving the Giants Dave Roberts if the still want a "true" center fielder.
The Giants will indeed be bidding for Kei Igawa of the Hanshin Tigers. There are a lot of clubs interested and it is expected to take at least $10 mil to snag his rights. Last year he went 14-9 with a 2.97 ERA in 209 IP.

I started to translate Igawa's stats the the majors using Jim Albright's formula and more or less remembered why I hated math in college. Luckily, I found someone more familiar with regression analysis, the Sturgeon General.

Really, hat tip to the Sturgeon. Go read their post, as it sums up a number of other Japanese pitchers on the market as well. I'm so glad there are people smarter than me out there. It is one of my goals to figure out how to do this the future, as I hope the Giants continue to at least show interest in Japanese players.

The projection gives Igawa a 1.33 WHiP and 4.15 ERA next year in 187.7 IP, not bad but not great. Still, its better than the team's 1.40 WHiP last year. I guess in a year with such a thin crop of free agent pitchers, getting a league average started isn't that bad.

If you're not into the fancy numbers, there is a scout's point of view over at The Prospect Insider. The scout compares Igawa to Jarod Washburn. Ick. I guess what can you expect for only $10 mil?

My Friend Ned

2006-11-21T10:01:00.000-08:00

When the Juan Pierre to the Giants rumors started, for me it wasn't the player but the cash involved that scared me. Yes, Pierre is a no-throw, no-walk player who is a black hole at the top of the lineup whose sole value is that during the World Series against the Yankees, Fox watched him throw balls down the third base line to see which way his bunts would break. He was part of a special team and he stole lots of bases. He was a perenial member of the How to Play the Game the Right Way With Small Ball Team.

For the Giants he would basically guard Triples Alley, bat a horrible leadoff and that would be that. We did also employ one Kenny Lofton.

But the rumors had him making nearly $10 a year. That was more than Frank Thomas got from the Blue Jays and Durham was demanding.

But a friend we've been watching from afar came and saved us, taking that last bottle of scotch out of our hands and downing the hole thing himself, to the tune of four years and $44 million.

Thanks Ned.

The Dodgers are set to sign Pierre to the deal and set him loose in center and the leadoff spot. And all I can say is thank you, Mr. Colletti. You saw our weakness and you stepped in and did what any friend would do. This is the free agency equivalent of "Friends Don't Let Friends Drive Drunk," if your friend stopped you by going on a bender, stealing your car and crashing it into a police station.

This comment from the Baseball Analysts kind of summed it up:

Ned is a freaking Giant. A plant. A shill. A triple agent.... I'm baffled.

The Dodgers may still win more games than the Giants next year, but it wont be because of this.

Hot Stove, Cold Apartment

2006-11-17T19:30:00.000-08:00

A few random things as I consider the cost/benefit of higher heating bills vs. medical costs of removing frozen appendages...

Billy Mueller's First Job: This was sort of sickening. Bill Mueller has retired and is now working for the Dodgers front office. I know they paid him recently and Collettii and Mueller have an old Giants tie, but it still hurts Billy. I can't wish him ill, so all I'll say is I hope he is paid well. Franchise-cripplingly well.
The Phoenix like rise of Kevin Frandsen: First he won the Dernell Stenson award and now he has a piece in the Contra Costa Times saying the Giants are giving him another look and possibly using it as grounds to let Durham go. I'm not an AFL expert, but everyone seems duly impressed so I guess I'll follow the crowd. I was real high on him when he came up originally and I'm pulling for him, but I can't forget the .284 OBP. But a league minimum starting second baseman sounds pretty freakin sweet.
Ray Durham Vs. Frank Thomas: The same Frandsen article states that Durham is looking for a contract "in the two-year, $18 million range." Today:
Frank Thomas and the Toronto Blue Jays finalized an $18.12 million, two-year contract on Friday.
At first I was taken aback (though the Thomas deal has a decent signing bonus and option year) at the similarity. But as a DH Thomas ended up with only one more win share than Durham last season. Thomas is also three years older and has 663 fewer plate appearances over the last three seasons. Of course Thomas wasn't the one who slugged 95 points above his career average last year, though.
Way Left Coast: From the Chronicle:
The Giants are expected to look at lower-tier starters as well as those coming from Japan. There is talk they will bid for 27-year-old left-hander Kei Igawa when the Hanshin Tigers post him next week.
After the announcement that the team finally signed a scout for the region, this is very encouraging news. For the next few years, at least, the Giants will need to find talent anywhere they can. Even if they're looking for backups, Japan has a bargain bin, too. How do you say "Marvin Bernard" in Japanese? Oh yeah, Shinjo.

Oh Shea

2006-11-08T10:08:00.000-08:00

The Baseball Analysts released their second All-OOPs team. I'll let them describe it:

By definition, the players who meet the above criterion are singles hitters who only walk on occasion and rarely slug home runs. In other words, batting average makes up the lion's share of their value. Put another way, the qualifying hitters have low Isolated Discipline (IsoD) and Isolated Power (IsoP). IsoD equals OBP minus AVG, and IsoP equals SLG minus AVG. These isolated stats tell you what's not a part of batting average.

Shea Hillenbrand showed up as the first baseman. Though this is mainly a fun list, it's important to look at in context of the offseason. Players like Hillenbrand, with high average and little else, normally get overpaid by general managers as well as overrated by the media.

It's an old story for many people who pay attention to baseball. Average is a very visible and easy to understand stat. Picking up a guy who hit .300 but had an OBP of .310 will almost always look better to fans than .270/.350. In a year where the Giants have a lot of PR to do as Barry possibly skips town and the players becomes younger and less known to the casual fan - of which the Bay Area holds many - will Brian Sabean go for the overrated name players just to say to fans, "Well, at least we still have Juan Pierre!"

The day is here

2006-11-06T23:51:00.000-08:00

It's finally happened. The A's are moving to Fremont.

I wonder if they'll go all Angels on us and call themselves the Oakland A's of Fremont.

Even as a Giants fan I went to more A's games just because they were so accessible. A half-hour ride on BART from Dublin, cheaper tickets and less trend all around. It was just so easy to decide the day of you wanted to go to a game and not have to fight to make it happen.

Now we'll have to transfer trains and a new stadium might make it Pac Bell all over again. There wont be a happily forgotten team in the Bay Area. Or maybe the market wont be able to handle to trendy teams at once, and the post-Barry Giants will become the A's of the late '90s. I can only hope they bring back dollar Wednesdays.

Only 300 years too late

2006-11-02T22:54:00.000-08:00

The Giants have hired a scout for the Pacific Rim.

It's always amazed me that a team in San Francisco can do such a poor job of attracting international talent. And at this point, the team needs young players from whatever city, town, state, country or planet it can find it.

As any article that mentions Japanese baseball is required to do this offseason, this one mentions Daisuke Matsuzaka, if only to rule out the Giants entering the fray. There's a good piece up at the Hardball Times on the subject of The Coveted One's soon-to-be-paycheck. One thing I found interesting in was that the author suggested Matsuzaka might stay in Japan until he can become a free agent next season. Now teams will have to pay an exorbitant fee just to negotiate with him, so the theory is next year teams will be able to spend that money on him and not send part to the Seibu Lions.

I'm not a business man, but in a profession like baseball where a player only has so many peak seasons, why waste one in a lesser league for an extra $4 million a year on top of what will already be a disgusting contract? And as pointed out in the article, he isn't going to get a five year deal at ace money before ever throwing a major league inning, so why not get one of those proving years out of the way?

Maybe I'll ask Scott Boras...

Countdown to...Screw it

2006-10-31T21:08:00.000-08:00

So I only got one week out of my Countdown to History thing with the Raiders. Ah well.

I missed posting on last week's game because of work, but I'm glad my next post follows two straight wins. As much as my postings may make it seem like I want them to lose, more than anything I just want the team to wake up and realize that what its doing isn't going to consistently win in the modern NFL, as has been stated ad nausem in many other outlets. It seemed a historically disastrous season might be the only way to do that.

But what the victories over the Cardinals and Steelers have shown the rest of the world is that the Raiders defense is for real, or at least as not as terrible as the offense. The first few weeks a lot of people had been lumping the two together into this mess of a team, when really it was the offense that wasn't doing its part and making things much worse on the defense.

I found this interesting. At one point he compares the Raiders to an exaggerated version of the early '00s Ravens teams, though somewhat tongue in check. The D is obviously not that good, but that was sort of the script for the Steelers game. I mean good god, 17 yards passing?

Still, the big number was three, as in, the Raiders won the turnover battle by three. That has been the biggest problem all season outside of the terrible offensive line. A better line would help, but not all of the turnovers have been because of pressure. Even with the Ravens 2002 defense, I'm not sure this offense could not lose enough games to get in the playoffs. It may be a work in progress with Andrew Walter behind center so I'm willing to be patient. This year is sort of an experiment from here on out, to see if Walter can at least take that first step and learn how to not lose a game.

I'm looking forward to the Seattle Monday night game. The two teams are both at a lose, with injuries and ineffectiveness plaguing both offenses. It seems like Seattle still has more weapons and a better gameplan and coach, which should give them the edge. Maurice Morris hasn't gotten anything going - possibly because he's on my fantasy team - and Seneca Wallace is only going to be in his second start. If the Raiders can get enough going on defense they might be able to force some turnovers and give the offense a short field. A low scoring game may be their only hope, because they can't win a shoot out.

17 yards, Christ.

And it ends...

2006-10-26T22:23:00.000-07:00

The Giants hired Bruce Bochy today.

This move sums up everything that is wrong with the way this franchise has been going since 2002. OK, hugely oversimplified statement out of the way, now I can move on to rational conversation.

Of the four candidates - Bochy, Ron Wotus, Manny Acta and Bud Black - Bochy was the safest pick but also the least likely to to make the Giants significantly better. Maybe it's just the lure of the unknown (the other three candidates are undefeated as major league managers), but it seems like hiring Bochy is Sabean's way of saying he'd rather be mediocre than good. Bochy's .494 winning percentage kind of says it all.

But he has had success. His teams have been to a World Series and won the NL West four times. He also finished with a losing record 50 percent of the time.

Compared to Felipe, Bochy seems to go to the bullpen and sacrifice less, but steal more, according to Bill James. But those numbers also show he has switched his style around season to season (241 steals in 1999, 77 in 2004). Hopefully he's someone who will adjust his style to the team and not just blindly follow some script in his head, though I haven't talked to enough Padre fans to know for sure.

I said before I didn't want the selection to be determined by who the fans thought was most exciting and this definitely fits. Bochy wasn't the sexiest candidate. I understand the logic of getting someone with experience in the division and experience in general, but I would have preferred any of the other candidates. With so little expected of next year this feels like a time to take chances and Bochy seems like he's here to watch the ship until the real manager shows up soon.

And the winner is...

2006-10-20T21:28:00.000-07:00

This article in my hometown paper (or one of them at least) breaks down the Giants managerial candidates, looking at Ron Wotus, Bud Black, Manny Acta and Bruce Bochy.

Going simply by what Andrew Baggarly writes, I'm throwing my hat in the Wotus camp. I like the experience with the minor league system and younger players. He knows the Giants' players better than anyone else we can bring in and he has won, even if in the minor leagues.

And really, if he's going to get his shot anywhere it should be in San Francisco. Yes, sentimentality shouldn't override the cold hard logic needed to find a new manager, but I can find more faults with the other candidates than I can with Wotus.

Baggarly writes that Wotus' main disadvantages are that he doesn't have a lot of major league playing experience and wouldn't be the most media friendly coach.

How a manger's personality plays to us outside the organization shouldn't make any difference in whether or not to hire the guy. If the team wins no one will remember he seemed in the media those first few months. If he loses he will be deemed distant and not emotional enough, if he wins then he'll poses a quiet cool and be unflapable.

I originally was a big Bud Black backer, but it had more to do with him being on the first Giants teams I ever remember really following. The fact that no one has ever considered him for a job before scares me if it comments on his standing in the league at all.

I don't think I would be upset with Manny Acta, though. He seems like one of those young coaches who could just explode when they get a shot.

I do have to say I'm disappointed the list doesn't include Joe Girardi. He succeeded in a situation that will be very similar to the Giants next year, sans the talented young players.

Countdown to History: 11 games to go

2006-10-15T21:12:00.000-07:00

No NFL team has ever gone 0-16. Seven teams have lost 15, the last time by the Carolina Panthers in 2001. That team also holds the record for most consecutive games lost in season.

Now the Raiders have come close before, losing 19 straight from 1961-62. Unfortunately they didn’t play 16 games back then, but we're getting closer and closer to history every week.

Today they moved one step nearer with a 13-3 loss to the Denver Broncos.

This was a classic Raiders loss, filled with turnovers, penalties and unnecessary late hits at just the right times.

Like I’ve mentioned before, though, the defense kept up its end of the bargain. The Raiders lost average gain-per-play only by 0.5 yards, 4.1 to 4.6. The problem was that the Broncos got 4.6 yards per rush as well, out-running the Raiders 144 to 85.

The Broncos did play conservatively on offense the whole night, only throwing 18 times, but they also never got anything going outside the big plays by Javon Walker. Most of the night the defense kept them in check, not playing great but being by far the Raiders' best unit. If the offense steps up, the Raiders could be a four-win team someday.

But the offense didn’t step up. Andrew Walter doesn’t seem to be progressing much, though it may still be too early to make a final judgment. For right now he is making bad decisions – the corner interception – and taking way too much time to make decisions. For a quarterback with a line as bad as his, he needs to be taking a three or five step drop and getting rid of it, regardless who’s open.

I was happy with what I saw out of LaMont Jordan. Yes, that stat line looks terrible and he had the fumble at the end, but it’s almost as if Jordan’s cursed just wearing that silver helmet. He had some tough runs and a few stiff arms that gained some extra yards. I’ve liked him since I saw him play for Maryland and I see him as a victim of a really untalented and inexperienced offense line and quarterback.

It seems Jordan is really just pressing too hard to get something done all by himself without a lot around him. He and Shane Lechler really deserve better.

One sort-of optimistic thing: This was the first game a Raiders opponent never started a drive in Oakland territory. Denver came close three times, with drives starting at its own 43, 44 and 47.

Numbers you can never win with: 95 yards in penalties, 85 yards rushing

And below that?

2006-10-12T21:12:00.000-07:00

OK, with baseball season out of the way (except for the gooey center that is the hot stove), there are going to be more Raiders posts. Which I expect to be interesting even for the Niner fans. Why?
My key interest this season is if the Raiders can be remembered as historically bad. I'm not talking about how Jeff George is talked about at Ricky's. I'm talking multiple ESPN classic episodes. The coveted "At least we're not the 'o6 Raiders" line whenever fans discuss a horrible team.

Right now I'm not sure this will even be the worst team in Raiders history, though that may be only from lack of evidence, an expectation of regression to the mean and Andrew Walter becoming comfortable with the fact that he is starting in the National Football League.

For now I'll just look at points per game. As the season gets a little older I'll pull out some better numbers but this is just for perspective.

The most recent competition would be the 2003 team. Outscored by an average of 16/23.7, ranked 27 and 26 in the NFL respectively. Rich Gannon lead the team in passing with 1274 yds., just seven more than Rick Mirer. Scary times. It was the end of Bill Callahan and all hope of competing for some time.

Right now the Raiders are getting beaten at a 11.8/29.2 clip. Much worse than '06.

Since 2002, a normal 32nd ranked offense scores around 14 and the 32nd ranked defense around 28. So even if the Raiders are just a run-of-the-mill worst team in football, they will probably be worse than in 2003 by these measures, but not by much.

What I'm going to be watching though are the yards-per-game the defense gives up. In 2003 the Raiders were 30th at 369.o. But this year the defense is 10th at 294.8. The reason is the -8 turnover ratio, second worse in the NFL to the Browns, a team that beat the Raiders already. In the Browns four scoring drives that game the average starting field position was the Raiders 46.

That is what may keep this team from being the worst in Raiders history. Not just a statistical fluke, but possibly the defense. The offense so far has been historically bad and that is causing people to overlook the rest of team. The defense didn't look horrible against San Diego. If the offense stops turning it over hopefully the defense can stop drives at the 30 instead of giving up points.

Right now Walter is averaging a turnover almost every ten plays he doesn't make a successful handoff (Rushing and throwing attempts added. Anyone know where there are stats for snaps taken?). That has to improve. Right? Well, if it does, and the defense holds, there would be a lot more 16-14 losses than 34-20.

Of course all this debate is thrown out if they go 0-16.

Word up

2006-10-12T20:32:00.000-07:00

In the weeks since I last posted, it seems like I've been in a perpetual holding plan, not just with this blog, but with my life in general. Hopefully that changes now.

And I'm glad I haven't posted since Sept. 4. Otherwise I wouldn't be able to make my first post since then a link to this.

The office I work at was buzzing pretty heavy about the plane crash in New York the whole morning Tuesday. But the first time I heard it was Cory Lidle was on Yahoo sometime in the afternoon.

At that point I stopped going to sports Web sites and watching ESPN.

Everyone deserves a memorial. Almost everyone has a few people who will want to say something about them when they pass. When you're a professional athlete your best friends are often people the rest of the public would like to hear from.

Hearing quotes from Barry Zito and Eric Chavez, former teammates of Lidle in Oakland, make sense. They knew him, they are going through something right now and if they want to talk that's their right. I've had to talk to people who have lost a loved one and they are always the best people to let you know what this person was all about.

But using the end of one man's life as an excuse to pontificate on the state of sport is different (Now see, I'm using the media coverage of the event as an excuse to pontificate on the media. Different thing entirely).

Which brings me to the post over at Word Up Thome. I didn't expect anything on Lidle. I thought they just might skip it and make a joke about Jim Leyland and Tony LaRussa dissing Ken Macha. Who knows, those guys are crazy.

But the post was a great look at the situation. Often it's the funny ones, who don't hold themselves in the same light as the newsies, who can really explain a situation.

I can see how someone could look at parts and say it's it's bad taste. Whatever, that's your opinion. But they could have just let it pass by and they didn't, which is worthy of comment on its own.

OMG

2006-09-04T22:21:00.000-07:00

This may be the funniest thing I've ever read in a Giants' notes. Take it away, Draper...

CINCINNATI -- Armando Benitez inched the bottoms of his Giants workout shorts above his knees in the visitors' clubhouse at Great American Ball Park on Monday, and no explanation was needed as to why.
The right one was twice as puffy as the left, and hurting twice as much...

Yes, yes, we all know it's his knees. But imagine for a moment you know nothing of Benitez. Besides the loss of memories of poorly splitting breaking balls and blown saves, there is also a greatly hilarious thought there.

Take this is lieu of a real thought, which is coming shortly. I'm still getting into a routine of updating this, but I'm trying for at least once a week, though without being able to see or listen to any games I often feel out of the loop. Hopefully the off-season will get me into the writing spirit more often, since we're all at the same disadvantage.

Randy Winn: WTHH?

2006-08-22T22:24:00.000-07:00

With the Giants season running low on outs, I'm getting ready to turn my focus to the future. But before that, I want to figure out what happened this year. Sure, there wasn't high expectations coming into this year, but it seems like if some things could have been just a little bit better something may have turned their way.

So today is Randy Winn day. What the Hell Happened?

Coming into this season Brian Sabean decided that the term "sample size" was quaint and had no bearing on how much money a baseball player should be played. So based on less than half a season he doled out $7 trillion over 4 years for Winn's extension.

And as many predicted, Winn dropped back to Earth this year. But then he kept digging. Or plummeted through it's crust like a comet. As of Aug. 21, he was ready to set full-season lows for OBP, SLG, BA, and RC/G.

But he also is setting a career low for K%(9.9) and career high for BB/K(0.83). With much lower K%, of course his BB/K would look better, but his BB% is 7.6, compared to a career average of 7.7

And though his SLG is 0.23 below is career average of .422, his ISO is .135, compared to a career of .137. He's also getting XBHs and HRs at the same rates he has outside of last year.

What seems to be the problem is the BA, which sits at .264, 21 points below his career and 42 points behind last year. And that leads to another area where Winn is setting a career low: BABIP.

At .278, he's 51 points below his average. So even with all the added suck this year, he's had a lot of bad luck, too.

I'm not an expert with reading batted ball data, but there was one other thing I noticed going through the numbers. Winn's linedrive % is down and fly ball % is up. Not only that, his infield FB% is up, bringing his HR/FB% down (06': 6.2, 04': 9.0). I can only speculate what that means, but it may be hurting his power and BABIP.

So Winn has been facing a lot of bad luck, but it also seems like he's missing more pitches than normal. So maybe it's better for him to keep striking out than making bad contact. At 32 it's hard to say he could improve, but I think he can at least return to his career averages next year. That still wont earn him his contract, but that's Sabean's fault, not Winn's.

(Stats from Fangraphs)

Oh Shea

2006-08-15T22:59:00.000-07:00

As much as I should be happier about the Giants seeing as they've won two one-run games in a row against a division rival, all I can continue to think about is Shea Hillenbrand and his performance on Monday.

Since starting the last game of the Diamondbacks series where he started 3-3, Hillenbrand had gone 0-12 with two strikouts before getting a couple of hits tonight. Two isn't a lot but I make note of it becasue of an at bat against Clay Hensely in the sixth Monday.

Hillenbrand just flailed at the same outside pitch over and over again. It was one of the most pathetic things I've seen in a Giants uniform. And each of his at bats had two or three pitches where he just had no idea what was going on, but he was saved by a HBP and a throwing error.

I saw nothing in anything he did at the plate that could be considered even encouraging for the rest of the year. I know I can't understand what he was thinking, but itappeared like he didn't really care. That's probably not really true but it makes it so much harder to watch.

But the worst part was in the field. He had two error-worthy plays that either weren't charged or charged to someone else. One was a groundball where he ranged to his left for ball near the foul line and just never got his glove down. In the booth Eric Karros tried to defend him, saying it shouldn't be an error but noting that "normally a major league first basemen makes that play."

A play in the bottom of the 7th reads "M Bellhorn safe at second on throwing error by pitcher M Stanton." What actually happened was that Hillenbrand forgot that Stanton was A) left handed, and B) ocassionally throws over to first with a runner on. Hillenbrand left the bag as Stanton was throwing over, allowing th abll to sail into the stands. To Rick Sutcliffe: "He's lucky he didn't take that off his chest."

I appreciatd Sabean's effort in making the trade, and I wasn't even that upset losing Accardo immediately after. And I can't blame Hillenbrand for being a jerk and a crappy player. We knew that was who he was coming in. I had hoped for the best but had no illusions as to even what that upside could be.

But at this point all I want is him to be gone. It's not that I want to kill Shea, I just want him not to be a Giant, anymore. May ne have an enjoyable experience on his way out, but not so enjoyable that he accepts arbitration.

Player A	.251	.287	.434
Player B	.256	.311	.468