A reason to live for a few more years

Today is Part II of my look at the Giants new starting rotation. I’ve already compared Matt Morris and Brett Tomko, and Jamey Wright and Kirk Rueter. All that’s left is Matt Cain and Jerome Williams.

Matt Cain: Through the Ainsworths, Fopperts, Boofs and Bumps, Matt Cain may be the closes the Giants have come to actually developing a true front line starter (Noah Lowry not withstanding). Already a few pundits are picking him as a ROY candidate, and with good reason. In 7 starts last year he had a 0.93 WHIP and a 2.33 ERA. But during his 46.1 IP for the Giants, his K/9 rate was cut almost in half from his minor league totals, and his H/9 dropped around 2.5. Obviously he’s not going to keep up last years rate (sample size sample size), but people are still predicting good things. Since I have little experience with MLE I’ll stick with other people’s guesses. The Bill James Handbook puts him down for 186 IP with a 3.16 ERA, but ZiPS says a 4.65 ERA over 178 IP. Looking at these, I’m guessing an ERA around 4.00 and a WHIP around 1.40. A good year, but nothing spectacular.

Jerome Williams: The puka shells, the age, the rush of actually developing a real prospect. The good times of 2003. But Williams couldn’t keep it up, and his WHIP rose in 2004 and 2005, earning him a trip to Chicago in one of the worst trades in the history of professional sports. Trust me, I’ve researched this and giving hard proof would only make it hurt more. In his 18 starts with the Cubs he had a 3.91 ERA and a 109 ERA+. His 1.349 WHIP was still higher than 2003 and 2004, but at only 24, he can definitely improve.

Decision: I don’t know anyone that would trade Cain for Williams right now. Cain is one of the elite prospects in the game, and Williams still has a lot of questions. Though Williams could have a better 2006, by 2007 Cain should be the better pitcher and hopefully one of the bright spots on a team that should be pretty bad.