And below that?
OK, with baseball season out of the way (except for the gooey center that is the hot stove), there are going to be more Raiders posts. Which I expect to be interesting even for the Niner fans. Why?
My key interest this season is if the Raiders can be remembered as historically bad. I'm not talking about how Jeff George is talked about at Ricky's. I'm talking multiple ESPN classic episodes. The coveted "At least we're not the 'o6 Raiders" line whenever fans discuss a horrible team.
Right now I'm not sure this will even be the worst team in Raiders history, though that may be only from lack of evidence, an expectation of regression to the mean and Andrew Walter becoming comfortable with the fact that he is starting in the National Football League.
For now I'll just look at points per game. As the season gets a little older I'll pull out some better numbers but this is just for perspective.
The most recent competition would be the 2003 team. Outscored by an average of 16/23.7, ranked 27 and 26 in the NFL respectively. Rich Gannon lead the team in passing with 1274 yds., just seven more than Rick Mirer. Scary times. It was the end of Bill Callahan and all hope of competing for some time.
Right now the Raiders are getting beaten at a 11.8/29.2 clip. Much worse than '06.
Since 2002, a normal 32nd ranked offense scores around 14 and the 32nd ranked defense around 28. So even if the Raiders are just a run-of-the-mill worst team in football, they will probably be worse than in 2003 by these measures, but not by much.
What I'm going to be watching though are the yards-per-game the defense gives up. In 2003 the Raiders were 30th at 369.o. But this year the defense is 10th at 294.8. The reason is the -8 turnover ratio, second worse in the NFL to the Browns, a team that beat the Raiders already. In the Browns four scoring drives that game the average starting field position was the Raiders 46.
That is what may keep this team from being the worst in Raiders history. Not just a statistical fluke, but possibly the defense. The offense so far has been historically bad and that is causing people to overlook the rest of team. The defense didn't look horrible against San Diego. If the offense stops turning it over hopefully the defense can stop drives at the 30 instead of giving up points.
Right now Walter is averaging a turnover almost every ten plays he doesn't make a successful handoff (Rushing and throwing attempts added. Anyone know where there are stats for snaps taken?). That has to improve. Right? Well, if it does, and the defense holds, there would be a lot more 16-14 losses than 34-20.
Of course all this debate is thrown out if they go 0-16.
My key interest this season is if the Raiders can be remembered as historically bad. I'm not talking about how Jeff George is talked about at Ricky's. I'm talking multiple ESPN classic episodes. The coveted "At least we're not the 'o6 Raiders" line whenever fans discuss a horrible team.
Right now I'm not sure this will even be the worst team in Raiders history, though that may be only from lack of evidence, an expectation of regression to the mean and Andrew Walter becoming comfortable with the fact that he is starting in the National Football League.
For now I'll just look at points per game. As the season gets a little older I'll pull out some better numbers but this is just for perspective.
The most recent competition would be the 2003 team. Outscored by an average of 16/23.7, ranked 27 and 26 in the NFL respectively. Rich Gannon lead the team in passing with 1274 yds., just seven more than Rick Mirer. Scary times. It was the end of Bill Callahan and all hope of competing for some time.
Right now the Raiders are getting beaten at a 11.8/29.2 clip. Much worse than '06.
Since 2002, a normal 32nd ranked offense scores around 14 and the 32nd ranked defense around 28. So even if the Raiders are just a run-of-the-mill worst team in football, they will probably be worse than in 2003 by these measures, but not by much.
What I'm going to be watching though are the yards-per-game the defense gives up. In 2003 the Raiders were 30th at 369.o. But this year the defense is 10th at 294.8. The reason is the -8 turnover ratio, second worse in the NFL to the Browns, a team that beat the Raiders already. In the Browns four scoring drives that game the average starting field position was the Raiders 46.
That is what may keep this team from being the worst in Raiders history. Not just a statistical fluke, but possibly the defense. The offense so far has been historically bad and that is causing people to overlook the rest of team. The defense didn't look horrible against San Diego. If the offense stops turning it over hopefully the defense can stop drives at the 30 instead of giving up points.
Right now Walter is averaging a turnover almost every ten plays he doesn't make a successful handoff (Rushing and throwing attempts added. Anyone know where there are stats for snaps taken?). That has to improve. Right? Well, if it does, and the defense holds, there would be a lot more 16-14 losses than 34-20.
Of course all this debate is thrown out if they go 0-16.
Labels: Raiders
posted by Chris at
9:12 PM
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