Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Oh Sabean of old, how I missed thee

But for the Giants the best thing that can happen is nothing. No free agent signings. No major trades. No discussions with Pedro Feliz.
-Me, Dec. 3, 2007


Just over a week. That was all the time it took for Brian Sabean to completely destroy any remaining faith I had in him. And really, I'm surprised he held out that long.

Today he signed Aaron Rowand to a five-year, $60 million deal. Which isn't so bad in itself than in what it represents.

Rowand serves no particular need for a team in the Giants' situation. Not only do they have a player who can hold down center in Randy Winn (not to mention Fred Lewis, Dave Roberts and Rajai Davis, though those aren't great options) but the team isn't at that point where Rowand can make any significant difference.

This year Rowand was worth around 8-9 wins to the Phillies (7.8 WARP1, 90 win shares), though outside of Philly and with a slight drop next year let's just say the Giants improve by six games just from him. Congratulations, even going by Pythagoras you are now an 83-win team. And that's with Barry Bonds.

Rowand is a player you add when you are at 80-wins on paper and you need to get into the playoffs. Yes, the rise of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain could potentially offset the loss of Bonds, Ray Durham could return to professional baseball and in Bruce Jenkins' wet-dream Rowand could provide the spark everyone was lacking while a Bonds-less clubhouse gains a magical five wins by not being so pissy anymore. But with two huge holes bookending the infield and nothing waiting until Angel Villalona, Rowand doesn't seem to make much sense.

This signing shows Sabean is either overly optimistic at how fast this team can rebuild or has no plan on how to rebuild. After months of talking about how the young players were going to get a chance and that there would be an acceptance of starting over, Sabean pulls out a decidely Sabean move.

At five years Rowand will be 35 when this contract finishes. The Giants do not need a 35-year-old starting CF in 2012 or a $12 million bench player.

But the numbers that really get me are the ones below.

.309/.374/.515

.313/.368/.521

That top line what Rowand did this year. The line below? His 90th percentile PECOTA projection. Way to skim for potential bargains, Sabes.

(I'll try and look at the good side of this deal tomorrow, but I just needed to get that out now before calm and reason returned.)

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