Just Manny Being Barry
Manny Ramirez to the Giants rumors. Oh, I love the Hot Stove.
The Chron article mentions the Red Sox need for a shortstop, though it said that Omar Vizquel is untouchable. The other options would be prospects.
Any deal that happens would mean that Ramirez replaces Barry Bonds. Ignoring the fact that getting Ramirez would mean comparing him to the combined production lost by whoever we trade to get him and Bonds, straight up who will be better over the next few seasons, Bonds or Ramirez?
Fielding
Let's start here, as the low point for each player. Ramirez has been knocked for years for shoddy defense and would have nowhere to hide in the National League. Bonds is a once-great fielder who has been hobbled by injuries to his knees.
Last year is the only real comparable year, as it was the first where Bonds played consistently (for him) on the bionic knees. In 130 games apiece, Ramirez recorded 2.1 fielding win shares to Bonds 2.3. According to David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range, Ramirez was the worst Left fielder in baseball, while Bonds was merely average.
While I haven't seen Ramirez play a lot, what I have seen is horrendous. Bonds on the other hand is a good fielder in an old man's body. Last year he looked terrible in the field but often got to spots one wouldn't expect. He still has great instincts and make good reads, allowing him to get to balls someone in his condition shouldn't be able to.
Hitting
Now this is why both of these men get paid tens of millions of dollars every year. A few years ago it would be silly to even imagine any player who could eclipse Bonds, but after the last two seasons not only is it feasible but necessary considering his age and health.
Bonds didn't have a Bonds-like season in 2006, but he was still the best hitter on the Giants. He led the league with a .454 OBP and still slugged .545. But compared to the .812 SLG of 2004, his last healthy season, Bonds is obviously not the player he was. That was evidenced by his .270 batting average, his lowest since 1999.
But we're not comparing Bonds to himself, but Manny. Last year he hit .321/.439/.619, better than Barry in every category except OBP. That gave him 2.2 more batting win shares than Bonds.
But looking ahead, the two players seem headed in opposite path is power. Bonds seems like he will always hold an edge in OBP, though it remains to be seen if he can keep up his absolutely disgusting walk rates once pitchers and managers stop giving him free passes all the time. Which should happen soon, right?
But Bonds' ISO has been declining steadily since 2004. From 2002-2004 he averaged a .429 ISO, with a high of .450 in 2004. Last year it .275. Ramirez has averaged .301 since 2004, with a variation of .007 between the high and the low.
Overall
While it is inevitable that Ramirez will decline eventually, he seems to be holding steady for the time being a a level Bonds has recently dropped below or equaled to. Remember, Ramirez is still nearly eight years younger than Bonds. Depending what the deal is I wouldn't be upset to exchange Bonds for Manny. If the Giants can trade Vizquel and some minor prospects I would jump at it. Both come with issues and will produce, though I see Ramirez as giving Sabean a little extra to rebuild around over the next three years, assuming Bonds doesn't find a way to improve on 2006.
The Chron article mentions the Red Sox need for a shortstop, though it said that Omar Vizquel is untouchable. The other options would be prospects.
Any deal that happens would mean that Ramirez replaces Barry Bonds. Ignoring the fact that getting Ramirez would mean comparing him to the combined production lost by whoever we trade to get him and Bonds, straight up who will be better over the next few seasons, Bonds or Ramirez?
Fielding
Let's start here, as the low point for each player. Ramirez has been knocked for years for shoddy defense and would have nowhere to hide in the National League. Bonds is a once-great fielder who has been hobbled by injuries to his knees.
Last year is the only real comparable year, as it was the first where Bonds played consistently (for him) on the bionic knees. In 130 games apiece, Ramirez recorded 2.1 fielding win shares to Bonds 2.3. According to David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range, Ramirez was the worst Left fielder in baseball, while Bonds was merely average.
While I haven't seen Ramirez play a lot, what I have seen is horrendous. Bonds on the other hand is a good fielder in an old man's body. Last year he looked terrible in the field but often got to spots one wouldn't expect. He still has great instincts and make good reads, allowing him to get to balls someone in his condition shouldn't be able to.
Hitting
Now this is why both of these men get paid tens of millions of dollars every year. A few years ago it would be silly to even imagine any player who could eclipse Bonds, but after the last two seasons not only is it feasible but necessary considering his age and health.
Bonds didn't have a Bonds-like season in 2006, but he was still the best hitter on the Giants. He led the league with a .454 OBP and still slugged .545. But compared to the .812 SLG of 2004, his last healthy season, Bonds is obviously not the player he was. That was evidenced by his .270 batting average, his lowest since 1999.
But we're not comparing Bonds to himself, but Manny. Last year he hit .321/.439/.619, better than Barry in every category except OBP. That gave him 2.2 more batting win shares than Bonds.
But looking ahead, the two players seem headed in opposite path is power. Bonds seems like he will always hold an edge in OBP, though it remains to be seen if he can keep up his absolutely disgusting walk rates once pitchers and managers stop giving him free passes all the time. Which should happen soon, right?
But Bonds' ISO has been declining steadily since 2004. From 2002-2004 he averaged a .429 ISO, with a high of .450 in 2004. Last year it .275. Ramirez has averaged .301 since 2004, with a variation of .007 between the high and the low.
Overall
While it is inevitable that Ramirez will decline eventually, he seems to be holding steady for the time being a a level Bonds has recently dropped below or equaled to. Remember, Ramirez is still nearly eight years younger than Bonds. Depending what the deal is I wouldn't be upset to exchange Bonds for Manny. If the Giants can trade Vizquel and some minor prospects I would jump at it. Both come with issues and will produce, though I see Ramirez as giving Sabean a little extra to rebuild around over the next three years, assuming Bonds doesn't find a way to improve on 2006.
Labels: Bonds, Giants, Transactions
posted by Chris at
10:34 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home