It's snowing!

Awash in the spring training fluff that is raining down upon us, I found this little snippet from a Rich Draper (shudder) article on Russ Ortiz. Ortiz says that all his problems have been linked a small change in his delivery that had gone undiagnosed for, let's look at the record here ... apparently 2005:

The nine-year veteran thanks Baltimore pitching coach Leo Mazzone with spotting that delivery error while studying videotapes last year after Ortiz was demoted to the bullpen.

Now normally I don't put a lot of stock in anything a player/manager/coach/general manager/bat boy says before the season, but anything attached to the Miracle Worker needs to at least be checked out. So thanks to David Pinto's Day by Day database, here's Bug Russ' numbers with Arizona and Baltimore in 2006:

Arizona

ERA	Win Pct.	K per 9	BB per 9	HR per 9	K/BB
7.54	.000	8.3	8.7	1.19	.95

Baltimore

ERA	Win Pct.	K per 9	BB per 9	HR per 9	K/BB
8.48	.000	5.1	4.0	3.35	1.28

Now these are only 22 and 40 IP respectively so no big conclusions can be drawn. Also park factors, a new defense and different levels of competition could also have played a factor. But while getting fewer Ks his K/BB numbers improved in Baltimore, those the home run rate is pretty bad. But Ortiz said he changed once he had been moved to the bullpen, so let's look at his numbers after his last start:

ERA	Win Pct.	K per 9	BB per 9	HR per 9	K/BB
4.71	-	7.7	3.0	2.57	2.57

Now these are much better. Once again this is in only around 2o IP, but it's something to think about, coupled with his fall performances and these pictures. If nothing else, the Giants may have a decent reliever and a possible closer if he can't start anymore. With Arizona paying most of his salary, any value squeezed from Ortiz will make the signing worth it.

Right now I think there's not enough data post-Mazzone to say whether Ortiz is likely to improve this season. But I now think it may be possible, which is better than I've been at some points since he was signed.