Friday, December 28, 2007

We came to dance, Aaron

I promised a non-alarmist, calm headed look at Aaron Rowand. Maybe even looking into the good side of the signing. This may not live up to those high-minded ideals but it will shoot for them.

OK, here we go. Unlike Petco, Mays Field only slightly reduces runs. What it does that helps pitchers is kill home runs. Rowand is the type of player that the Giants should sign to take advantage of this unique space the team plays in.

Mays Field's Triple's Alley in left-center plays to hitters with doubles power with enough speed to stretch those to extra bases and not enough power to kill their value through decreased home run power. It also requires quick, plus-fielding outfielders.

Rowand has hit 30 or more doubles in every season he's had at least 500 PA ('04, '05, and '07) and since 2005 is +21 on the Fielding Bible +/- system. While not the best fielder, by many accounts he is above average.

While Barry Bonds has shown that no park can defend against a guy who can hit the ball 500 feet, those guys are expensive and few and far between. Until the team can develop one of those it needs to go after outfielders such as Rowand with a little power and good range to play to the strengths of the park.

But the reason to do that is to get players other teams don't value so you can build cheap and mistakes don't cost you that much. The Giants are so far behind the game at this point they need to steal talent wherever they possibly can and save money to lock up the pitchers they seem to be able to develop. Finding players whose talents can only be best used on your field is definitely a start.

Signing Rowand at his peak value is not the way to go about it. So my happy face analysis is that Sabean has found himself a player that should work well in San Francisco, but not at this price, at 30 years old and at this team's pace of development. Maybe in a few years, if Rowand continues to play at his current level, this might turn out to be a key signing for a winning team. But so many steps have to happen between here and there it just looks like Sabean is grasping for anyone who can help keep this team out of the record books offensively next year.

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